MFA NOTES ACHIEVEMENTS, NEXT STEPS ON ARBITRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000347 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN HR SI SUBJECT: MFA NOTES ACHIEVEMENTS, NEXT STEPS ON ARBITRATION AGREEMENT REF: LJUBLJANA 335 AND 336 Classified By: CDA Brad Freden, E.O. 12958, reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Senior officials at Slovenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs are pleased with the November 4th signing of the arbitration agreement to resolve the Slovenia-Croatia border dispute. At a November 5 briefing, Director-General for European Affairs and Bilateral Relations Iztok Mirosic praised the historic agreement reached by Prime Ministers Pahor and Kosor and said that once the arbitration agreement was ratified by both Parliaments, Slovenia and Croatia's border dispute would essentially be resolved. Now that the arbitration agreement has been signed by the two PMs, both governments have two weeks to take the agreement to their respective Parliaments for ratification with a target end date of December 2009. Mirosic noted that PM Pahor would face a tough battle in Parliament but was optimistic that he would be able to overcome opposition and push the agreement through. Pahor would then likely face a referendum called by the opposition shortly thereafter. Post plans to engage key decision makers to ensure that our message gets across: the United States would like to see the arbitration agreement ratified soonest, as success is of vital importance not only to both countries, but to the region as a whole. End summary. -- MFA SATISFIED WITH STOCKHOLM OUTCOME -- ¶2. (SBU) On November 5, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director-General for European Affairs and Bilateral Relations Iztok Mirosic briefed a group of EU Ambassadors on the arbitration agreement signed by Prime Minister Pahor and Croatian Prime Minister Kosor the day before in Stockholm, Sweden. Pol-Econ Chief attended the briefing. Mirosic praised the historic agreement and noted the atmosphere in Stockholm had been "very" positive. He said the two Prime Ministers came to an agreement on the basis of mutual trust and were now focused on future cooperation. Mirosic was satisfied with the outcome of bilateral negotiations and said that once the arbitration agreement was ratified by both sides, Slovenia and Croatia's border dispute would essentially be resolved. The DG noted the agreement sent a strong signal to the Balkan states, who are dealing with their own border disputes. He expressed his appreciation to EU Enlargement Minister Ollie Rehn whose proposal formed the basis of the arbitration agreement and thanked the Swedish Presidency for the encouragement and assistance it provided with communication. -- MFA HIGHLIGHTS SPECIFIC ACHIEVEMENTS -- ¶3. (SBU) DG Mirosic and an MFA lawyer highlighted what they viewed as several "achievements" attained in Stockholm. They explained Slovenia and Croatia reached an agreement on the size of the arbitral tribunal which will be made up of five individuals. The President of the European Community and Rehn will propose three candidates. Slovenia and Croatia will also select one each. If both sides cannot agree to the three proposed individuals from the EC and Rehn, the President of the International Court of Justice will choose the members. Mirosic was optimistic that both Slovenia and Croatia would reach an agreement on the arbitrators before the decision would have to go to the ICJ. ¶4. (SBU) Regarding the specific language on a "junction to the high seas" in article three, Mirosic explained that the Slovenian side came away from Stockholm with an understanding that the meaning of territorial contact was preserved in the agreement's text. The MFA lawyer explained that such language was used in previous international agreements, and that it was not a new or unique expression specific to this agreement. Ultimately, the arbitral tribunal has the power to interpret the agreement and what the "junction" means. The MFA lawyer further explained that the tribunal will base this decision on international law, equity and good neighborly relations. They will refer to all relevant circumstances and make their final decision based on the vital interests of both countries. ¶5. (SBU) Mirosic also explained that Croatia proposed a unilateral statement which "attempted to define the junction." He quickly discounted it and reiterated Ljubljana's earlier position that it was completely "unacceptable" for the Swedish Presidency to witness such a statement. The DG emphasized the two Prime Ministers signed the arbitration agreement in Stockholm without any unilateral statements. Mirosic said he would not speculate on future Zagreb actions, but that Slovenia would have to respond with a unilateral statement of its own if Croatia were to issue one, as in the international community, silence equates to tacit agreement. -- NEXT STEPS -- ¶6. (SBU) Now that the arbitration agreement has been signed by the two PMs, both governments have two weeks to begin their respective ratification processes with a target end date of December, 2009. The Slovenians will shortly send the text of the agreement to their Constitutional Court for review. Assuming no challenges, Parliament will vote on ratification. The agreement can pass with a simple majority. Once Parliament ratifies the agreement, Mirosic noted that he expected the opposition would call for a referendum. PM Pahor will face a tough debate in Slovenia, but Mirosic said he believed the PM would succeed in the end. If the referendum were to fail, Mirosic explained Parliament would have to wait a full year before revisiting the arbitration agreement. ¶7. (SBU) Assuming that all tests are passed in Slovenia, the arbitration agreement will technically go into force one week after both sides ratify it. However, the arbitral tribunal would only begin its procedural work the same day that Croatia signs its EU accession agreement. Mirosic openly speculated that this could mean the process will formally begin as early as 2010 or 2011, if Croatia met all of its accession conditions. In the meantime, Mirosic noted, both sides will negotiate on the composition of the tribunal and will begin preliminary negotiations on any other issues that may need to be resolved. As a result, the DG was optimistic that the arbitration tribunal's work would proceed quickly, as most of the initial leg work could be completed in advance. -- BORDER DE-LINKED FROM CROATIA'S ACCESSION PROCESS -- ¶8. (SBU) In response to a series of questions from the diplomatic community, DG Mirosic said that Slovenia no longer held any reservations on Croatia's EU negotiation process as a result of the border dispute. Slovenia will continue to keep an eye on Chapter 31 which calls for good neighborly relations, as Ljubljana has a host of other issues to address with Zagreb that are not connected to the border. (Note: Post will report septel on these issues.) Mirosic quickly noted that the agreement on the border dispute did not mean that Slovenia would forego negotiations on other outstanding issues as they relate to this specific chapter. -- COMMENT -- ¶9. (C) The agreement reached by the two Prime Ministers in Stockholm is a major accomplishment. Prime Minister Pahor now faces a tough battle in Parliament to convince fence sitters within his own coalition that ratifying the arbitration agreement is ultimately in Slovenia's best interests. Opposition leader and SDS head Janez Jansa will likely continue to severely criticize Pahor for the agreement. Members of the opposition have already publicly announced that they plan to call for a referendum if the agreement is ratified. In a country where referendums are a popular political tool and voter turnout tends to be low, Pahor will need an aggressive public relations strategy to ensure that those in support of the agreement come out in force to vote for its passage. Post plans to engage key decision makers in both the ruling coalition and opposition, as well as the general population, with a combination of intense behind-the-scenes lobbying and subtle public outreach to ensure that our message gets across: the United States would like to see the arbitration agreement ratified soonest, as success is of vital importance not only to both countries, but to the region as a whole. FREDEN