PAHOR EXPECTS FINAL ACT TO BORDER DRAMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000336

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN HR SI
SUBJECT: PAHOR EXPECTS FINAL ACT TO BORDER DRAMA

Classified By: CDA Brad Freden, E.O. 12958, reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Prime Minister Pahor's Foreign Policy Advisor Marko
Makovec told CDA October 23 that Pahor took away a positive
impression of this week's telephone conversation with Deputy
Secretary Steinberg. Makovec expressed the PM's appreciation
for Washington's understanding and support. He noted,
however, that Pahor could not sustain a "keep talking"
approach beyond Monday's meeting with Croatian PM Kosor due
to an increasingly hostile domestic political environment.
PM Pahor feels that support for the arbitration agreement is
crumbling within his own coalition, according to Makovec. He
explained that several ministers have privately warned Pahor
not to go to Zagreb, presumably because they fear the
consequences if he comes back empty-handed. Pahor plans to
call a meeting with coalition members this weekend to try to
ensure a united front in advance of his trip.


2. (C) Makovec confirmed that Pahor seeks to sign the
arbitration agreement in Zagreb on October 26. When CDA
asked if a public statement by the two PMs that they had
resolved all their remaining differences would be sufficient,
Makovec declined to answer. If the two Prime Ministers
cannot reach agreement, Makovec said Pahor would publicly
acknowledge that talks had failed. Slovenia would then
inform EU member states at the October 29-30 European Council
meeting that it would re-impose its blockade on Croatia's
accession talks.


3. (C) Makovec noted that the political environment is now
such that Pahor must make a public statement and release the
text of the arbitration agreement after Monday's meeting,
regardless of how it goes. CDA urged Makovec not to release
the text of the agreement without Croatian PM Kosor's
concurrence, as this would violate the current "gentlemen's
agreement" to consult with each other before taking action
publicly. He urged Makovec to find a way to meet Croatia's
concern regarding "non prejudice," and noted that we were
also encouraging Zagreb to find a way to say yes. CDA
requested that Pahor wait at least until the European Council
meeting to make any public announcement, noting that Slovenia
should consult with its friends and allies before taking any
irreversible steps. Makovec said in response that he would
urge the PM not to make a definitive announcement before the
European Council meeting. In closing, CDA reiterated the
U.S.' strong opposition to the re-imposition of reservations
on Croatia's EU accession talks, to which Makovec nodded
grimly.


4. (C) Comment: Makovec's tone throughout was one of grim
resignation. He clearly was not conveying an ultimatum, but
rather a sense that the curtain was about to go up on the
final act of a drama that may not have a happy ending. The
view here seems to be that if the two Prime Ministers cannot
resolve the remaining differences face-to-face, the
differences are irresolvable. If Pahor does not recognize
this, he is either a fool or a knave, according to his
critics. The Prime Minister will face perhaps the most
difficult decision of his political career if he returns from
Zagreb without an agreement: re-impose the blockade on
Croatia's accession talks and face Washington's -- and to a
lesser extent, Brussels' -- wrath; or concede that his
government's approach for the last 10 months was
ill-conceived from the beginning. The first option is
probably less likely to cause him to lose his job, at least
in the short term, but neither is particularly palatable to
this embattled Prime Minister. Ironically, his political
fate may be in Croatia's hands. End comment.
FREDEN