SLOVENIA AGREES ON IRAN, BUT SEES NARROW WINDOW OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000293

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR ISN/RA: RMONGIELLO, MBEDKE, BHEIDLBERG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2019
TAGS: KNNP MNUC PARM IAEA PREL AORC
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA AGREES ON IRAN, BUT SEES NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY

REF: STATE 95073

Classified By: POL/ECON:TEVANS, REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) On September 18, Pol/Econ Chief called on MFA's
Tomaz Mencin, Head of Division for Africa, the Middle East,
Asia and Oceania, and Tadej Rupel, Head of the Unit for
Middle East to urge Slovenia's active involvement in calling
on Iran to engage constructively with the P5 1. Mencin
affirmed that Slovenia was in agreement with the US position,
adding "we have no real differences between us on this."
When asked if Slovenian President Tuerk would be willing to
address the issue in his public statement at the UNGA, Mencin
could not confirm, but said any public comments would reflect
the common EU position. Mencin agreed that we have a window
of opportunity to get through to Iran on this issue, but that
it would probably close by the end of the year. In light of
this time frame, he wondered if the threat of new sanctions
would be plausible, given the amount of time needed to get
them through the UN process.


2. (C) Mencin said he was not surprised at all that the
Iranian September 9 proposal was "deliberately loose,"
designed to turn attention to matters other than the key
issue. He recalled a meeting in early 2008 at which then
Foreign Minister Rupel, representing the EU Presidency, was
"very tough" with Iran's Foreign Minister, saying "listen my
friend, tell me how you are going to deal with this problem."
The response, he said, was cordial and covered a lot of
ground, but was evasive and vague on the point at hand. "The
Iranians carefully analyze every aspect of this issue," he
said, so they are able to adapt and respond to every argument
"but still get their way."


3. (C) Mencin said he was pleased to see that the U.S.
message to Iran included points on human rights. He believes
the EU is becoming more convinced that pursuing the nuclear
issue alone is not working, and that future approaches to
Iran have to be more comprehensive, linking in related
issues, especially human rights. This has been heightened in
the aftermath of the Iranian elections. With the detentions
of EU diplomats, he said, the mood in the EU and in the GoS
had changed perceptively. "Some of our people have been
affected directly, and this brings us into direct
confrontation with the Iranian government, which has not
happened before."


4. (C) He also noted that the trade aspect is especially
important for Slovenia, which has a robust (in relative
terms) trading relationship with Iran. Slovenia isn't Iran's
largest trading partner in the EU, he said, but is somewhere
in the middle, above Portugal, Greece and Ireland. He said
Slovenia imports very little from Iran but has a high volume
of non dual-use exports such as pharmaceuticals, high-end
paper products, specialized metal products, industrial
compressors and sensors, etc. But he added that even if the
EU were willing and able to cut off all trade with Iran, it
probably would not hurt Iran that much. Iran always seems to
find ways around sanctions, he said, especially if other
members of the P5 1 appeared to be waivering, like Russia and
China. For this reason, he thought any future measures had
to be specifically targeted, since leading sectors in Iran,
such as the Revolutionary Guard, are extremely skilled in
finding ways around sanctions.
FREDEN