SLOVENIAN AND CROATIAN PMS AGREE TO DIALOGUE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000231 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/CE, EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2019 TAGS: PREL EUN HR SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIAN AND CROATIAN PMS AGREE TO DIALOGUE ON WAY FORWARD REF: EUR PDAS S. JONES 7/31 E-MAIL LJUBLJANA 00000231 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Grace Shelton, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) At their July 31 meeting in northern Croatia, Slovenian PM Borut Pahor and Croatian PM Jadranka Kosor agreed to have a dialogue and try to prepare a two-part package that would allow Slovenia to lift its reservations and Croatia's EU negotiations to resume. The first part would be a Croatian government declaration that all documents and actions taken after June 25, 1991 would not have any legal significance for an international body deciding about the Slovenia-Croatia border dispute. The second part would be a joint guarantee to return to negotiations. According to Marko Makovec, the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor who was present at the plenary session of the July 31 meeting, the second part is difficult. Slovenia would like U.S. help in getting Croatia to use the June 15 Rehn proposal as the starting point for negotiations that would continue under an EU-led process. Both PMs also committed to proceed with "quiet diplomacy." End Summary. Dialogue on a 2-Part Package -------------- ¶2. (C) On July 31, Makovec gave CDA a read-out of the Prime Ministers' meeting earlier that day. Makovec said that the PMs had agreed to have a dialogue and the Foreign Ministers would have a parallel dialogue to discuss a possible way to move out of the impasse; their idea is to prepare a "package." The FMs would try to work on this in August (Slovenian FM Zbogar has leave scheduled for the first three weeks of August, so it will likely be the latter part of August). The Prime Ministers would meet when there is a text of a package, possibly sometime in September, although a date is not set. ¶3. (C) Makovec outlined a possible two-part package: 1) a Croatian government declaration or statement that no document or action undertaken unilaterally after June 15, 1991 shall be accorded legal significance, and 2) both guarantee to return to negotiations. Makovec explained that the first element would incorporate text from articles 5 and 8 of the June 15 Rehn proposal. From Article 5: "No document or action undertaken unilaterally after June 15, 1991 shall be accorded legal significance for the tasks of any international commission or body (instead of Arbitral Tribunal)." The first paragraph of Article 8 basically repeated Article 5; the second paragraph was important because it defined what documents would be included. Makovec stressed the importance of the word "unilaterally" in both of these provisions. ¶4. (C) Makovec indicated that the second part of the package was problematic. Kosor had agreed to work on a statement and to go back to negotiations, but would not agree to use the June 15 Rehn proposal as the starting point for negotiations under an EU-led process. Makovec noted that it was important it be an EU-led process because the bilateral efforts had not succeeded after twelve years of trying. He added, however, that Slovenia did not care whether the EU-led process was led by Commissioner Rehn, the EU Presidency, Swedish FM Bildt, or whomever. ¶5. (C) Makovec observed that that PM Pahor believed that he could sell the package only if both elements were included, otherwise he would never be able to get the necessary two-thirds majority. Makovec explained that President Turk was not in favor of this kind of proposal and "firmly and severely" insisted that Croatia must return to the process before Slovenia consider lifting its reservations. The PM, however, wanted to try for the compromise, but only if Croatia returned to the June 15 Rehn proposal as a basis under an EU-led process. If not, the deal was off because the PM lacked support from the President, within his own coalition, and the opposition for a compromise. If Croatia were to agree to the 2-part package with Slovenia's conditions, then Pahor would be willing to go all out to get the opposition on his side. With such a 2-part package, Slovenia could withdraw its reservations. On behalf of the Prime Minister, Makovec requested U.S. and EU assistance in getting Croatia to do so. CDA passed to Makovec the draft demarche points (reftel),which Makovec appreciated. He noted especially the point that the U.S. urged both parties LJUBLJANA 00000231 002.2 OF 002 to return to the EU-led process. Good Atmospherics at July 31 Meeting -------------- ¶6. (C) Makovec commented that the atmospherics of the Prime Ministers' July 31 were good, much different than the February Mokrice meeting. Today, the Prime Ministers were collaborating on how to find a way forward. Although Makovec complained that Croatia appeared to want Slovenia to do all the bending, he was pleased with the overall outcome. Both PMs decided to use "quiet diplomacy," and Slovenia was confident that Kosor was serious about this. Makovec noted that the Slovenian and Croatian media were positive in their initial similar coverage of the meeting. Makovec said that the Prime Ministers' 30 minute one-on-one meeting was followed by a 30 minute plenary, then the press statement and lunch. PM Pahor was accompanied by Makovec, FM Zbogar, MFA Director for Bilateral Affairs Iztok Mirosic, and Aljaz Arih, the FM's Chief of Cabinet. (Note: The FM, Makovec, Mirosic, and Arih are all scheduled to be on leave next week.) Kosor was accompanied by FM Jandrokovic, EU negotiator Drobnjak, Davor Stier, Kosor's foreign policy advisor, plus one other person. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The positive atmosphere has continued in the immediate aftermath of the PMs' meeting. Both sides want to find a way forward and appear close to being able to do so. Assistance from the U.S., and the EU, could help them reach agreement on a package that would allow Croatia's EU accession negotiations to proceed. SHELTON