SLOVENIA: EP ELECTIONS A REFERENDUM ON COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000157 SIPDIS EUR/CE, EUR/ERA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: EP ELECTIONS A REFERENDUM ON COALITION AND ECONOMY REF: A. LJUBLJANA 84 ¶B. BRUSSELS 762 Classified By: CDA Brad Freden, reasons 1.4(b,d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) While the governing center-left coalition has been focused on the twin challenges of the economic crisis and the Slovenia-Croatia border dispute (ref A),the center-right opposition has surged to the lead in polls ahead of Slovenia's June 7 European Parliament (EP) elections. The opposition, led by former PM Janez Jansa's Slovene Democratic Party (SDS) and current EP parliamentarian Lozje Peterle's Nova Slovenija (NSi) party, has tried, with some success, to frame the election as a referendum on the way the coalition has handled the economic crisis. The border dispute with Croatia lags far behind the economy as an election issue, but candidates from across the political spectrum have dutifully vowed to protect "Slovenia's interests." The campaign has exposed some tension within the coalition, as two ministers (Economy Minister Lahovnik for Zares and Environment Minister Erjavec for the Pensioner's Party (DeSUS)) chose to join their parties' candidate lists. Commentators and pollsters predict a turnout level of only around 30-35 percent of the 1.7 million eligible voters (compared to 28 percent in 2004's EP elections and 65 percent in the September 2008 parliamentary elections). Should the opposition hold its lead in the polls and secure a majority of Slovenia's seven EP seats, the practical effect on domestic politics would likely be to make an already cautious PM Pahor even more so. End Summary. It's Not About EU -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Though some of the parties' slogans, talking points, and advertisements have mentioned the EU and the EP itself, the campaign, like those in most of Europe, has revolved around domestic issues (ref B). The campaign dominates headlines and news shows, with candidates and media emphasizing the economic crisis and the Slovenia-Croatia border dispute. The coalition parties have pointed to positive economic news as examples of their leadership, while the opposition candidates criticize the government's "hesitation" in the face of the crisis. On the border dispute, however, there is no significant difference of opinion--all eleven parties contesting the election have taken the opportunity to talk tough in defense of "Slovenia's interests." The border issue will not provide a victory to any of the parties, but the appearance of weakness in dealing with Croatia could cost a party or candidate. The Coalition: Ministers on the Outs? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The big question is whether PM Pahor's Social Democrats (SD) will get two seats. Pahor chose former Foreign Minister Zoran Thaler, not known as a major player in SD, to top the party's list. The dominant media narrative, however, has focused on the inclusion of Karl Erjavec, current Environment Minister, as the head of the DeSUS list, and Matej Lahovnik, current Economy Minister, on the list for Zares. Though neither is likely to get a seat, commentators continue to discuss the symbolism of two current coalition ministers choosing to seek election to the EP even as the government grapples with an economic crisis and a major political dispute with its neighbor Croatia. For Erjavec, press speculation centers on whether he is unhappy or disgruntled in the environment ministry. Recent polls, however, indicate that DeSUS is unlikely to win a seat. Lahovnik has been a reluctant minister since the formation of the coalition in November 2008; his background is primarily academic, and many commentators have noted his distaste for the political side of the job. Since Lahovnik is not the head of the Zares list, he is unlikely to take a seat even if Zares should win one. Ivo Vajgl, head of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, will likely take a Zares seat instead. The Liberal Democrats of Slovenia party (LDS), which currently has two EP parliamentarians, could get shut out, but is on the bubble in opinion polls. The LDS campaign, aligned with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, has emphasized the rule of law. Jelko Kacin, a former defense minister and LDS president, would stay in the EP should LDS make the threshold. Resurgent Opposition -------------- LJUBLJANA 00000157 002 OF 002 ¶4. (U) The opposition parties have taken advantage of the continuing economic crisis to increase their standing in opinion polls compared to the coalition. SDS and NSi hope to increase their share to 5 of the 7 seats available; both parties currently have two EP parliamentarians each, with all four under the banner of the European People's Party. Buoyed by recent opinion polls showing that SDS has a shot at 3 seats, Jansa has said the EP elections could provide a "sobering up" for the governing coalition. Jansa and Peterle have both characterized the resurgence of SDS and NSi in polls as a reflection of the coalition's poor handling of the economic crisis. Jansa confidant and former education minister Milan Zver leads the SDS list, with Romana Jordan Cizelj, currently in the EP, in the number two slot. NSi, which did not make the threshold to enter parliament in the September 2008 domestic parliamentary elections, is relying on a strong core of supporters with a high turnout level to overcome NSi's limited size compared to the other parties. There is some concern that SDS and NSi might split votes, leaving room for SD or Zares to snare another seat. This scenario would give NSi only one seat and SDS just two, instead of the hoped for two (NSi) and three (SDS) seats. The Slovene National Party (SNS) and the Slovene People's Party (SLS),both in the opposition, have not gained traction with their focus on the border dispute, and are polling well below the numbers needed for a seat. Running the Numbers -------------- ¶5. (U) Opinion polls from the May 30-31 weekend showed SDS with a comfortable lead over SD, in some cases as high as eight points (a 30.7 to 21.3 percent advantage). NSi has consistently polled in the mid-teens, ahead of coalition parties Zares, LDS, and DeSUS, which are likely be competing more against each other than opposition parties for the seventh seat. If turnout meets the predicted 33 percent, it would exceed the 2004 EP elections turnout of 28.4 of eligible voters. With 11 parties contesting the elections, only four are expected to win seats, with NSi being the only one of the four non-parliamentary parties running with hope for a seat. Three of the current seven parliamentarians are women; two--Cizelj (SDS) and Ljudmila Novak (NSi)--are likely to retain their seats, while the third, Mojca Drcar Murko (LDS),is not a candidate. Tanja Fajon (SD) has a chance to be the third woman in the Slovene EP contingent if SD gets two seats. The possible allocation of seats, based on the most recent polls, is as follows: SDS: 2-3 NSi: 1-2 SD: 2 Zares: 1 Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The election is shaping up not as any reflection on EU policies, but more as a referendum on Pahor's leadership during the economic crisis. For SDS and NSi, the proportional system and low overall turnout enhances their prospects for increasing the center-right majority in the Slovene EP contingent, providing more leverage in the domestic political arena. Already tagged as a cautious politician, Pahor could react to a resurgent SDS by becoming even more risk-averse. FREDEN