SLOVENIA: "SUBSTANTIVE AMENDMENTS" NEEDED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000139

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN HR SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: "SUBSTANTIVE AMENDMENTS" NEEDED TO
ACCEPT REHN PROPOSAL

Classified By: CDA Brad Freden, reasons 1.4(b,d)

Summary
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1. (C) Prime Minister Borut Pahor announced on May 12 that
the major parties had reached agreement on a response to the
latest proposal from EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn on
resolving the Slovenia-Croatia border dispute. Pahor told
press that the response would include "substantive
amendments," without which Slovenia could not accept the Rehn
initiative. A public opinion poll shows support for the
current Rehn proposal only in the low single digits. Pahor
has held the line on protecting Slovenia's "national
interests" from prior EU pressure, however, and the utter
lack of public support for the proposal provides him
political incentive to hold steady once again and insist on
changes to Rehn's proposal. We believe at least one more
round of closed-door negotiations will be necessary to reach
an agreement that is acceptable to both sides. Absent an
agreement, PM Pahor feels his government could collapse if he
allowed Croatia's accession talks to go forward. End Summary.

Coalition and Jansa in Step, For Now
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2. (U) After several rounds of meetings with all
parliamentary parties, PM Pahor announced on May 12 that
Slovenia would submit amendments to Rehn on or shortly after
May 15. The government has not yet detailed these
amendments; the government and then the parliamentary foreign
policy committee will discuss the amendments on May 14 and 15
before a final response goes to Rehn. Jansa's SDS party
backed the government's position, though SNS and SLS, the two
smaller opposition parties that have been the most strident
on the border issue, refused to support it.


3. (C/NF) The Czech Ambassador told us that the Czechs were
losing hope of finding a solution during their EU presidency,
but suggested there was a small window of opportunity after
EU elections (June 7) and before the intergovernmental
conference (June 26). She doubted that there would be a
strong wave of pressure from the EU on Slovenia because of
Slovenia's response, mentioning rising EU fatigue with the
issue. The MFA's Acting European Correspondent noted to us
that at the April GAERC, several member states expressed
solidarity with Slovenia and agreed that the border dispute
was not the only -- or even the main -- obstacle to Croatia's
accession negotiations. They cited Croatia's cooperation
with ICTY, Croatia's subsidized ship-building industry, and
the perception of widespread corruption.

Comment
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4. (C) Jansa finds himself in a strong position to dictate
much of Slovenia's response, as Pahor needs Jansa's support
to get anything through parliament with a 2/3 majority
(necessary for Croatia's accession). If Pahor caved to EU
pressure, the coalition could very well collapse with Jansa
waiting in the wings to take over. Though Jansa has used the
consultation process to position himself well in case Pahor
backs down from his public insistence on amendments to the
Rehn proposal, there is no incentive at this stage for Pahor
to do so. There is little public support for the current
Rehn proposal and Pahor has already stated that, if this one
does not work out, "another proposal will come along." We
see Pahor's rhetoric not as bluster, but political
calculation attuned to his coalition's survival.


5. (C) At this point it seems clear that the only way forward
is another round of serious, closed-door negotiations among
Croatia, Slovenia and Rehn. No Slovene government could
survive acceptance of the proposal in its current form or
allow Croatia's accession talks to resume absent an agreed
way forward.
FREDEN