PORTUGAL ON U.S. EMISSIONS PROPOSAL, COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 000602

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2019
TAGS: ECON ENRG KGCC SENV PREL PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL ON U.S. EMISSIONS PROPOSAL, COPENHAGEN

REF: LISBON 428

Classified By: Gary B. Applegarth, Pol-Econ Officer, Reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C/NF) Poleconoff met with Fausto Brito e Abreu of the
Portuguese Ministry of Environment on November 26, following
President Obama's announcement of U.S. emissions reductions
targets the U.S. will offer at Copenhagen. Brito e Abreu
described the U.S. targets as "minimal," as they are based on
2005 emissions levels and equate to "only about 2 percent"
below U.S. emissions in 1990, the baseline year used by the
EU in their own reduction targets. Nevertheless, Brito e
Abreu welcomed the targets, saying "we are in a better
position now than six months ago."


2. (C/NF) Poleconoff previously met with Brito e Abreu and
Nuno Lacasta, Coordinator of the Portuguese Ministry of
Environment's Special Committee for Climate Change, on
November 16 to discuss the upcoming climate change
negotiations. Both officials reiterated EU support for
expanded USG engagement on the issue but suggested that EU
"goodwill" toward the U.S. administration might begin to fade
in the absence of concrete action. As in previous
discussions (reftel),Brito e Abreu and Lacasta continued to
stress that any Copenhagen agreement should retain the
sectoral mechanisms and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
from the Kyoto Protocol.


3. (C/NF) Both acknowledged that developing nations will be
the major source of carbon emissions growth in the future but
do not believe it is imperative for these nations to commit
to verifiable emissions reduction plans now. Lacasta claimed
that continued economic development would cause developing
nations to "graduate" from developing status, at which time
they would be obliged to adopt verifiable emissions reduction
plans.


4. (C/NF) Comment: Despite describing U.S. emissions
reductions targets as "minimal," Brito e Abreu was clearly
pleased by President Obama's announcement. Both he and
Lacasta have acknowledged the U.S. administration's
determination not to negotiate reductions that would not
likely be ratified by Congress and describe the targets as an
"opening position." Their faith that developing nations will
accept verifiable emissions reductions targets as a matter of
course when they become "developed" is surprising given their
usual sober assessments of the issue, but is not out of
character with Portuguese foreign policy of recent years,
where avoiding ruffling feathers is the top priority for
issues not deemed within the EU, transatlantic, or lusophone
spheres.


For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal,
please see our Intelink site:

http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal
BALLARD