PORTUGAL ON U.S. EMISSIONS PROPOSAL, COPENHAGEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 000602 SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2019 TAGS: ECON ENRG KGCC SENV PREL PO SUBJECT: PORTUGAL ON U.S. EMISSIONS PROPOSAL, COPENHAGEN REF: LISBON 428 Classified By: Gary B. Applegarth, Pol-Econ Officer, Reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d). ¶1. (C/NF) Poleconoff met with Fausto Brito e Abreu of the Portuguese Ministry of Environment on November 26, following President Obama's announcement of U.S. emissions reductions targets the U.S. will offer at Copenhagen. Brito e Abreu described the U.S. targets as "minimal," as they are based on 2005 emissions levels and equate to "only about 2 percent" below U.S. emissions in 1990, the baseline year used by the EU in their own reduction targets. Nevertheless, Brito e Abreu welcomed the targets, saying "we are in a better position now than six months ago." ¶2. (C/NF) Poleconoff previously met with Brito e Abreu and Nuno Lacasta, Coordinator of the Portuguese Ministry of Environment's Special Committee for Climate Change, on November 16 to discuss the upcoming climate change negotiations. Both officials reiterated EU support for expanded USG engagement on the issue but suggested that EU "goodwill" toward the U.S. administration might begin to fade in the absence of concrete action. As in previous discussions (reftel),Brito e Abreu and Lacasta continued to stress that any Copenhagen agreement should retain the sectoral mechanisms and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the Kyoto Protocol. ¶3. (C/NF) Both acknowledged that developing nations will be the major source of carbon emissions growth in the future but do not believe it is imperative for these nations to commit to verifiable emissions reduction plans now. Lacasta claimed that continued economic development would cause developing nations to "graduate" from developing status, at which time they would be obliged to adopt verifiable emissions reduction plans. ¶4. (C/NF) Comment: Despite describing U.S. emissions reductions targets as "minimal," Brito e Abreu was clearly pleased by President Obama's announcement. Both he and Lacasta have acknowledged the U.S. administration's determination not to negotiate reductions that would not likely be ratified by Congress and describe the targets as an "opening position." Their faith that developing nations will accept verifiable emissions reductions targets as a matter of course when they become "developed" is surprising given their usual sober assessments of the issue, but is not out of character with Portuguese foreign policy of recent years, where avoiding ruffling feathers is the top priority for issues not deemed within the EU, transatlantic, or lusophone spheres. For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal, please see our Intelink site: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal BALLARD