PORTUGAL TO HOLD LOCAL ELECTIONS ON OCTOBER 11

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000537 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SCUL SOCI PO SUBJECT: PORTUGAL TO HOLD LOCAL ELECTIONS ON OCTOBER 11 REF: LISBON 516 LISBON 00000537 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) Summary: Portugal will hold local elections October 11 in all 308 municipalities, with the most significant races in Lisbon and Porto. The race in Lisbon will be closely contested, with incumbent Socialist (PS) mayor Antonio Costa likely to be re-elected over Social Democratic (PSD) rival Pedro Santana Lopes. Social Democrat Rui Rio is favored to win in Porto. Voter turnout may be relatively low, as these elections come just two weeks after the September 27 national elections (reftel) and four months after Euro-parliament elections. The Social Democrats, who are running in coalition with other parties in Lisbon and several other municipalities, hope to retain the majority of the mayoral posts, while the Socialists seek to win the largest number of votes to consolidate their September 27 victory. Two weeks ago PM Socrates led the Socialists to a lackluster victory in the national elections, which threw the PSD into disarray. The PSD is likely to have a better showing in these local elections, retaining its strongholds in the north. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Portugal will hold local elections October 11 for mayors and municipal assembly deputies in 308 municipalities nationwide. Voters will also elect local executives and assembly members in nearly 5,000 districts. An estimated half a million candidates have registered to run. Unlike the parliamentary elections, where candidates must be affiliated with a political party, groups of citizens or independent candidates may run for local office. ¶3. (U) The two leading parties have different electoral objectives: the right-of-center Social Democratic Party seeks to repeat its 2005 performance by winning the largest number of mayoral posts, while the left-of-center Socialists seek to win the most votes to consolidate their victory in the September 27 national elections. To increase its chance of success and margin of victory, the PSD is running in coalition with the Popular Party (CDS/PP) and other smaller parties in numerous municipalities. The Socialists, on the other hand, have not formed any alliances. Regardless of the results, both parties will undoubtedly claim victory, but much depends on who wins in the capital. Of the 308 municipalities, the most significant and closely watched races will be in Lisbon and Porto, Portugal's second largest city. CLOSELY CONTESTED RACE IN LISBON -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Lisbon voters have historically cast their votes for the left-of-center candidates. As the Socialist Party won a large majority in Lisbon during the September 27 parliamentary elections, it is likely that incumbent Socialist mayor Antonio Costa will be re-elected. The polls show him leading his PSD opponent, 45 to 33 percent. Considered effective throughout his career, Costa is a quietly competent mayor unlike his PSD opponent. Costa has the support of a large percentage of independent voters; however, he lacks charisma and has been criticized by some for not doing enough since taking office in 2007. ¶5. (SBU) Costa's primary opponent, Social Democrat Pedro Santana Lopes, previously served as prime minister (2004 - 2005) and mayor of Lisbon (2002 - 2004),but lacks support within his own party. He was appointed prime minister in 2004 but lost credibility when President Sampaio dissolved Parliament and called for new parliamentary elections just six months after Santana Lopes took office. Santana Lopes represents the right and center-right in a coalition of the PSD with the CDS/PP and two smaller parties. He is a flamboyant and charismatic figure who enjoys the limelight, but he lacks gravitas, having never completed any political term in office, and has many enemies in Parliament. SOCIAL DEMOCRATS AHEAD IN PORTO -------------- ¶6. (U) In Porto, the Social Democrats have the advantage. Polls show PSD incumbent Rui Rio with a 14-point lead over his Socialist rival. Rui Rio, an economist who is running for a third term, is generally regarded as effective and charismatic. A centrist, he voted for decriminalization of abortion, a referendum initiated by PM Socrates but opposed by many in the PSD. The Socialists have a relatively weak candidate in Elisa Ferreira, a current member of the European Parliament and former cabinet minister. Ferreira has spent most of her life outside Porto and is seen as having little interest vested in the municipality and a limited understanding of its realities. COMMENT LISBON 00000537 002.2 OF 002 -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Coming just two weeks after the national parliamentary elections, the local elections may suffer from voter fatigue and a lower turnout than the 61 percent in the September 27 elections. As in years past, local election results may not reflect parliamentary election results. In 2005, when the Socialist Party won an absolute majority in the national parliamentary elections, it was the Social Democratic Party that won the largest number of mayoral posts. Given that the PSD is again running in coalition with the CDS/PP in numerous municipalities, the PSD will likely receive fewer votes nationally than the Socialists. It is expected, however, to retain the majority of the mayoral posts. Regardless of which party claims overall victory, the results will not reflect any ideological shift in voter attitudes since the national elections two weeks ago, but merely the reality that voters tend to elect to local office candidates they know and trust. Taken together with the recent parliamentary elections, these local elections demonstrate that the Social Democrats are weakened nationally but retain many local strongholds, while the Socialists have national prominence but, outside of Lisbon, have significant holes at the local level. For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal, please see our Intelink site: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal BALLARD