PORTUGUESE ELECTIONS -- SOCIALISTS AHEAD, STILL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LISBON 000510 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL SOCI PO SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE ELECTIONS -- SOCIALISTS AHEAD, STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL REF: LISBON 493 ¶1. (U) Summary: With the September 27 parliamentary elections just days away, the Socialists (PS) led by Prime Minister Jose Socrates have a three-point lead over the Social Democrats (PSD) led by Manuela Ferreira Leite. However, a significant portion of the electorate -- 24 percent of those intending to vote -- remains undecided and could sway the final result. The campaign season has been rife with scandals and rumors tarnishing the images of the two main parties and distracting voters from substantive issues. Despite a series of televised debates focused on issues, this election, as those in the past, will largely be personality-driven: Portugal's "Iron Lady" Ferreira Leite, viewed as determined and credible, versus incumbent Socrates, regarded by some as arrogant and by others as charismatic and progressive. Possible post-electoral scenarios include a minority PS or PSD government, or a coalition government including one or two of the smaller parties. End Summary. Leading Parties Differ on Role of State -------------- ¶2. (U) Platforms of the ruling Socialists (PS) and the opposition Social Democrats (PSD) generally converge in three key areas: foreign affairs, defense, and European issues. The fundamental difference between the two parties is how they view the role of the State in society. According to Jose Luis Arnaut, PSD International Relations Committee Chairman and former President of the Parliamentary Commission on Foreign Trade and Portuguese Communities, the PSD favors less state intervention, while the Socialists believe in greater state involvement. The PSD favors market-based solutions over government subsidies. ¶3. (U) Another key difference is in the area of economic policy. Portugal's growth has lagged behind other European countries in recent years, and the economy is expected to contract 3.4 percent in 2009. The PSD believes the key to boosting growth is to cut public spending and stimulate private sector investment. PSD leader Ferreira Leite, who has been described as Portugal's "Iron Lady," has pledged a "titanic" fight against infrastructure projects to reduce what she calls the country's "unsustainable" debt levels, while the ruling Socialists have promised to launch large infrastructure projects. The Socialists assert that such projects, including a high-speed rail-link to Spain and a new airport for Lisbon, are key to hoisting Portugal out of its worst recession in decades due to the global economic crisis. ¶4. (SBU) PSD leader Ferreira Leite argued for suspension of construction of the high-speed rail-link between Portugal and Spain during a nationally televised September 12 debate with PS leader Socrates. Her comments sparked PS criticism of the PSD leader as "provincial" and "isolationist." The PSD defended its position, citing the need to put Portuguese national interests first, particularly in the face of growing public debt. Arnaut acknowledges that the PSD supported construction of the high-speed train in 2003, when Ferreira Leite was Minister of Finance, but now proposes postponement of the project to curb public spending. On foreign policy, Arnaut maintains that the Social Democrats are more pro-Atlantic than the Socialists, and noted that the trans-Atlantic relationship has been the PSD's number two priority in foreign affairs (after relations with the EU). ¶5. (SBU) The Socialists, for their part, seek to reinvigorate the economy, promote employment and social policies benefiting the middle class, and advance same-sex marriage. They also seek to introduce a referendum on regionalization, and revise the electoral law to re-configure the current electoral districts. Jose Lello, PS National Secretary for International Relations, characterizes the Socialist Party as a progressive movement that focuses on modernization, infrastructure, renewable energy, and export of technology. He stresses the success of major reforms initiated by the Socialist government over the past four years and the importance of sustaining those reforms, which the Socialists fear a PSD government would roll back. ¶6. (SBU) Lello notes that the PS government has made a significant investment (1 percent of GDP) in science and research, as well as in education. On the economy, he underscores his party's success in reducing the budget deficit from 6.7 percent of GDP in 2006 to 2.6 percent in 2008, and points out that Portugal's current unemployment rate of 9.2 percent is below the EU average (9.5 percent) and significantly lower than Spain's 18 percent. (Note: LISBON 00000510 002 OF 004 Government spending to stimulate the stalled economy is projected to bring the budget deficit back up to 6 percent of GDP this year. Portugal's overall debt is expected to increase to 75 percent of GDP from 66 percent in 2008. End Note.) Smaller Parties Struggling to be Relevant -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Left Bloc Deputy Luis Fazenda, currently running for re-election, stressed to poloff September 17 that his party defends workers' rights and employment. Criticizing the Socialists' efforts on social security reform, he said the Left Bloc seeks to increase social security benefits as well as the minimum wage and unemployment benefits. He observed that the "country is tired of the current absolute majority because the government is arrogant in the name of liberal reforms." He claimed that Socialist reforms have adversely impacted society. The PS' social reform has reduced social security benefits, while its labor reform has reduced workers' salaries, and its health reform has resulted in patients having to pay more for health care, according to Fazenda. Currently with 8 seats in the 230-seat Parliament, his party hopes to increase its presence. ¶8. (SBU) During a September 18 meeting with poloff, Social Democratic Center/Popular Party (CDS/PP) Vice President Luis Queiro, who served 10 years in the European Parliament until June 2009, described the CDS/PP as a conservative party supported by Christian Democrats. In contrast, he characterized the PSD (which had observer status at both the U.S. Republican and Democratic conventions in 2008) as a "centrist party with elements of the right and the left." He lamented that the CDS/PP has been unfairly stigmatized by a perceived connection with the old right-wing dictatorship and that no one in Portugal wants to be identified with the right. He observed that to be labeled a fascist is "the biggest political insult in Portugal." ¶9. (SBU) According to Queiro, the CDS/PP is focused on justice, security, and unemployment. It favors the "Giuliani model" of justice with quick sanctions to deter urban crime, and tax reductions to give more money to families rather than to the State. Like the PSD, the CDS/PP seeks to reduce budget deficits and to cut public spending. On foreign policy, Queiro observed that there is CDS/PP consensus with the PS and the PSD. The CDS/PP supports the EU and the trans-Atlantic relationship. It also values Portugal's relations with Africa and Brazil, and is interested in Latin-American policies. He said the CDS/PP, which currently has 12 seats in the Parliament, hoped to exert greater influence in the next government by gaining 2-4 additional seats as predicted by polls. Politics as Usual -------------- ¶10. (U) The campaign season has been dominated by front-page scandals, rumors, and negative campaigning (e.g., a vote-buying scheme allegedly involving Lisbon PSD candidates who are also under investigation for fraud and corruption in a separate case; a wiretapping scandal implicating the PS government; and a media scandal allegedly involving the PS) that have tarnished the images of both major parties and distracted voters from substantive issues. This year's elections, as in the past, will be personality-driven. Latest Opinion Polls Show Socialists in Lead -------------- ¶11. (U) With less than a week until the elections, the Socialists are maintaining their lead, with a three-point margin over the Social Democrats. According to the latest poll conducted September 12-15 by private Portuguese marketing research company InterCampus, the Socialists have 33 percent of the intended vote, followed by the Social Democrats (30 percent),the Left Bloc (12 percent),the Communist Party (9 percent),and the Popular Party (7 percent). Eleven percent of those polled do not plan to vote. A survey conducted September 11-14 by private Lisbon-based Catholic University Center of Surveys and Opinion Studies (CESOP) shows a six-point spread among decided voters, the Socialists with 38 percent of the intended vote and the Social Democrats with 32 percent, and undecided voters at 24 percent (with a margin of error of 2.7 percent). ¶12. (U) According to political analysts, the televised September 12 debate between Socrates and Ferreira Leite and the start of the electoral campaign contributed to a small one-point gain for the Socialists and a slight three-point loss for the Social Democrats since a previous opinion poll LISBON 00000510 003 OF 004 conducted September 4-8. The latest CESOP poll indicates that a significant portion of the electorate -- 24 percent of those intending to vote -- is still undecided. Regardless of their intention of vote, 52 percent of those polled believed the Socialists would win the most votes, compared to just 25 percent who speculated that the Social Democrats would pull ahead. Most voters (78 percent) predicted that the winning party would not obtain a clear majority. Less than half of those polled believed the new government, regardless of the party in power, would complete its mandate. Possible Post-Electoral Scenarios -------------- ¶13. (U) Possible post-electoral scenarios include a PS or PSD minority government, or a coalition government comprised of one of the two main parties and one or two of the smaller parties. According to the latest opinion poll, in the case of a Socialist victory without an absolute majority, most PS supporters would prefer a minority government, while 22 percent would prefer a coalition with the Left Bloc. Very few (10 percent of PS supporters polled) would support a coalition with the PSD. Among Left Bloc supporters, 47 percent would support a coalition with the Socialists to form a majority government. In the event of a PSD victory without a clear majority, the option most preferred by voters was a coalition with the conservative CDS/PP. ¶14. (SBU) PSD's Arnaut told poloff that the PSD would never form a coalition with the Socialists, but would be open to forming one with other parties, especially the CDS/PP. He noted, however, that it was too early to speculate on this, as he did not anticipate any problem with the PSD forming a minority government. Left Bloc's Fazenda stated that his party would never form a coalition with the PSD because the PSD is too far right. Likewise, he said it would not likely form a coalition with Socrates, noting that the Socialist Party had moved too far to the right over the past 20 years. ¶15. (SBU) PS' Lello maintained that if the Socialists do not win a clear majority, they could form a minority government, with parliamentary agreements with other parties on a case-by-case basis to enact legislation. He noted that, due to significant ideological differences, it would be impossible to form a coalition with the Leftist Bloc. He pointed out, for example, that while the PS strives to balance the public account, the leftists want to raise salaries without regard to the effect on the budget. ¶16. (SBU) CDS/PP's Queiro predicts that the incumbent PS will win a plurality but not a majority, in which case the CDS/PP may consider forming a coalition with the PSD. He believed it would be the only realistic coalition possible in Portugal at this time, but added that it would not be impossible for a minority government to rule. He predicted that the 2010 budget would pass (as it requires only a simple majority) with the abstention of other parties. He also predicted that a minority government would last at least until the next presidential elections in early 2011 since the president cannot dissolve the Parliament within the first six months after elections or within the last six months of his term. The earliest that new elections could take place would be in mid-2011. The stability of the new government will depend largely on the results of the presidential elections, he concluded. OSCE to Assess Elections -------------- ¶17. (SBU) An OSCE election assessment team, comprised of three two-member teams of legal experts, is in Portugal to assess the September 27 elections in seven electoral districts and in the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira. During a September 18 meeting, Head of Mission Jean-Pierre Kingsley told poloffs that a needs assessment team visited in June at the invitation of the Portuguese Mission to the OSCE to review the political and legal framework for the elections. He explained that this first-ever mission in Portugal was a response to Russia's complaint that it was being held to a high electoral standard while other countries had not been assessed. Kingsley, who did not anticipate finding any significant problems, said that the assessment team would not conduct a quantitative assessment given its limited size and reach, but would focus instead on best practices, including access by the disabled to polling sites. The team will assess the extent to which the national framework adheres to OSCE political commitments, and will provide a post-election assessment with recommendations. Comment LISBON 00000510 004 OF 004 -------------- ¶18. (SBU) With 24 percent of those polled still undecided, the election is still up in the air between the ruling PS and the opposition PSD, who won the European parliamentary elections in June with 32 percent of the vote (compared to the Socialists' 27 percent). Regardless of which party wins, the next government may be unstable. PSD leader Ferreira Leite has asserted that "governability" has never depended on the composition of the government, whether majority or minority; however, Portugal's political history indicates otherwise. Only one minority government (1995-99) completed its four-year mandate, and the PSD has ruled with a minority government just once (1985-1987). Regardless of the outcome of the elections, GOP cooperation with the U.S. and support for the EU and NATO will likely continue unchanged. For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal, please see our Intelink site: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal BALLARD