AMBASSADOR HOSTS ISAF MEETING IN LISBON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000233 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PO SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR HOSTS ISAF MEETING IN LISBON Classified By: POL/ECON COUNSELOR RICHARD REITER, FOR 1.4B, D. ¶1. (C) Ambassador Stephenson on April 22 hosted a meeting of several ISAF-country ambassadors in Lisbon to review the outcomes of the recent NATO Summit and to assess strategies for encouraging the Portuguese government to continue to contribute to ISAF in a meaningful way. Present were Lisbon-based ambassadors from Australia, Denmark, France, Italy, and Poland. Ambassador Stephenson opened the discussion with a review of recent developments including the NATO Summit and the new USG strategy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan. He noted that at the Summit, Portuguese PM Socrates committed to doubling the Portuguese presence on the ground in Afghanistan, but it is now clear that the GOP had not thought through what form this deployment might take. ¶2. (C) Portugal is scheduled to have about 150 personnel in Afghanistan in the coming months (2 OMLTs, 1 medical team, 1 C-130 with ground crew) when they fulfill their current pledges, and we are hearing speculation from senior Portuguese officials that they may double this number by deploying the QRF company that they withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2008. Notionally, the company would partner with the British in Helmand Province and operate without caveats, a possible deployment timeframe would be early 2010. Military sources tell us that the Portuguese CHOD has been tasked to provide an options paper for the new deployment commitments. ¶3. (C) The Italian Ambassador commented that Italy will host the G-8 Foreign Ministers' meeting in Trieste on 25-27 June and plans to make Afghanistan the primary agenda topic. Italy is now circulating a Food-For-Thought paper suggesting the following Afghanistan-related issues be raised: border management, drug trafficking and criminal activities, social and economic development, and people-to-people contacts. Italy, which has responsibility for border areas in western Afghanistan, will welcome Iran's engagement at the G-8 meeting, and will also invite Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Turkey, UAE, Egypt, and relevant IOs such as the UN. ¶4. (C) The French Ambassador took note of the fact that in many of his recent public remarks, Portuguese FM Amado has discussed a "South Atlantic Alliance" to somehow mirror NATO, without clarifying what he means. The French assess that with Portuguese historical interests in Brazil, Angola, and elsewhere that Portugal is "expressing its geopolitical identity" in a way that hints at a Portuguese leadership role without requiring any real commitments. The French have concluded that "this is a project that we can let evolve". ¶5. (C) The Danish Ambassador commented on Portugal's tight budget, growing tighter in the current economic climate. In the past, Portugal has listed funding problems among the reasons for not making more contributions to ISAF, and this situation is not going to improve in the short term. ¶6. (C) The Australian and Polish Ambassadors made similar comments about the Portuguese non-transparent decision-making process. Portuguese officials will give widely different explanations for why decisions are reached, making it difficult for us to work with them to resolve obstacles. The Australian Ambassador also noted that Canberra and Lisbon share a commitment in East Timor that is sometimes underestimated by NATO. Portugal has several hundred GNR (paramilitary police) in East Timor now, and given Portugal's view that the UN withdrawal from East Timor in 2002 was premature, Portugal is firmly committed to keeping its own forces there as long as it deems necessary. Given a choice between East Timor and ISAF, the Portuguese would assess East Timor as the more important mission, said the Australian Ambassador. ¶7. (C) The Polish Ambassador noted that there is broad support among Poles for the ISAF mission, allowing Warsaw recently to pledge greater contributions. But she noted that there are increasing questions among the Polish press and public about whether Poland's contributions are truly appreciated by NATO Allies. Clearly, she hinted, Poland could use a few more public kudos from the Allies. ¶8. (C) The Polish Ambassador also commented that Portuguese officials told her that they are sometimes confused by conflicting messages and force requests from the US and UK. We responded that Portugal is well aware of ISAF's needs and shortfalls because it sits in every NATO committee meeting where these are discussed. The Portuguese "confusion" may be Lisbon's way of delaying making firm decisions on contributions. LISBON 00000233 002 OF 002 ¶9. (C) COMMENT. The Portuguese are good friends and allies, but can sometimes be challenging interlocutors on Afghanistan and related security issues. Their budget constraints and lack of internal coordination make it all the more imperative that we and the other Allies do our homework and be well coordinated before approaching Lisbon. For example, we plan to work more closely with the UK embassy, in light of the comments raised in para 8 above, and we welcome Washington's continued efforts to ensure that there is no daylight between and among Allies and NATO HQ when making demarches and asks. Similarly, these concerns only highlight the value of these informal ambassadorial meetings. For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal, please see our Intelink site: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal STEPHENSON