MALAWI - OPPOSITION PARTY LEADERSHIP BATTLE TURNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LILONGWE 000386 SIPDIS LONDON FOR AF WATCHER PETER LORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV MI SUBJECT: MALAWI - OPPOSITION PARTY LEADERSHIP BATTLE TURNS VIOLENT REF: LILONGWE 358 Classified By: Acting DCM John Warner for Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Former Malawi Congress Party (MCP) spokesman Ishmael Chafukira continued his campaign to oust party president John Tembo during the opening session of the new Parliament. Chafukira, with ruling party support, won approval for a procedural change that would bar Tembo from becoming Leader of the Opposition. The move was greeted with violence, as a mob threatened to stone and beat an independent MP who supported Chafukira. A few days later, a mob severely beat two other MCP legislators from the Chafukira faction. MCP Secretary General Chris Daza told emboffs that he and many other senior party leaders agreed the party must change leaders and institute democratic reforms, but he said Chafukira's public challenge was counterproductive. Comment: MCP leaders, possibly including Tembo himself, realize it is time for new leadership, but it will take time for insiders to develop a graceful exit strategy for Tembo. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) At the opening of the new session of Parliament, former MCP spokesman Ishmael Chafukira wasted no time continuing his challenge to remove John Tembo as leader of the MCP. Exiled from his party, Chafukira and his four supporting legislators, introduced a measure to alter Parliamentary procedures to make the position of Leader of Opposition an elected position instead of one designated for the leader of the largest opposition party. With support from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),Chafukira looks likely to succeed in eventually seizing the Parliamentary position of Leader of the Opposition. ¶3. (SBU) Tembo supporters greeted Chafukira's actions with violence. A mob gathered near the National Assembly's offices and attempted to beat an MP who vocally supported Chafukira. When the MP escaped to his vehicle, the mob threw stones until police arrived and arrested four individuals. A few days later, both the Chafukira and Tembo factions planned simultaneous rallies at separate locations. After some Chafukira supporters were transported to the Tembo rally by mistake, two MCP legislators from the Chafukira faction went to retrieve them. Upon the arrival of the opposing camp's officials, the scene quickly turned violent. Members of the crowd severely beat both MPs and destroyed their vehicle. Police later arrested seven for the attacks, including John Tembo's personal driver and bodyguard. ¶4. (C) MCP Secretary General Christopher Daza told emboffs that he believed the media was overplaying the violence and the conflict in an effort to make the party look bad. Daza said it was no secret that the DPP wanted to "finish off" the MCP party and he believed the DPP was funding Chafukira's efforts. He admitted that he and other senior MCP leaders agreed that the MCP must quickly adapt to remain viable. Daza described efforts to formulate a new plan for more transparent fundraising and accounting systems, and establishing paid positions for local and district party officials. He also said the group was seeking to recapture the conservative values on which the MCP was founded and to establish more identifiable ideology to differentiate itself from other parties' platforms. ¶5. (C) Daza said MCP leaders, possibly including Tembo himself, realize it is time for new blood, but Chafukira's actions were counterproductive to internal efforts to find a way for Tembo to resign. Daza believed the transition process must be orderly, perhaps over 12-24 months, and the party would likely have to develop a financial pension arrangement as a further incentive for Tembo to step down. ¶6. (C) Comment: Chafukira is likely to seize the title of Leader of Opposition, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Neither the United Democratic Front (UDF) nor the Tembo faction of the MCP will recognize him as their leader. Having the ruling party place Chafukira in the position will also undermine his stated goal of reforming the MCP and strengthen concerns about the weakened opposition. The violence from Tembo's supporters reinforced the public's view of Tembo as a thug who is not open to dissent or compromise. There is no doubt within the MCP that John Tembo does not represent the future of the party. The only question is how long it will take insiders to develop a graceful exit and convince him to take it. BODDE