MALAWI ELECTIONS UPDATE - DELAYS AND DISPUTES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000029 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI SUBJECT: MALAWI ELECTIONS UPDATE - DELAYS AND DISPUTES REF: 07 LILONGWE 701 AND PREVIOUS LILONGWE 00000029 001.3 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The latest extension in Malawi's voter registration process will delay completion of the exercise to January 28, pushing the deadline for Presidential and Parliamentary nominations into early February. With no decision yet on Muluzi's candidacy, potential delays from legal challenges will further compress a quickly evaporating election schedule. Some candidates have protested the rise in nomination fees, a twentyfold increase from 2004, but the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) insists the fees are needed to discourage non-serious candidates. The EU is close to becoming the first confirmed international observer mission, with a scoping visit scheduled for early February. In the meantime, the MEC declined to offer official approval of the Malawi Electoral Support Network's (MESN) plan to perform a parallel vote tally (PVT). The government of Malawi also released a statement against the idea of a PVT, claiming it would be answerable to no one if it published false results. MESN continues to pursue its plans, however, and has tried to better explain the process of a PVT to political parties and the government. Comment: With controversy already arising over domestic observation activities, it is critical that MESN have well-trained observers and technical assistance. Despite significant donor interest, however, little funding has been identified to support MESN's domestic observation efforts so far. End Summary. Registration Extensions Continue -------------- ¶2. (U) The MEC has added an eighth two-week voter registration phase that will conclude on January 28. The additional phase was necessary merely to complete registration in the Rumphi district of Northern Malawi, but the MEC also reopened several registration centers in the Southern region to allow more people to register. Statistics through the end of December showed over 4.6 million people have registered to vote. The total accounts for 82.6% of the estimated eligible voters in districts where registration has been completed. The MEC still expects well over 5 million voters will be registered once the process is completed. Pushing Nomination Deadline into February -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Continued registration delays forced the MEC to push nomination deadlines back again. Nominations, originally due in early January, will now be accepted the first week of February. The deadline further forestalls a decision regarding former president Bakili Muluzi's candidacy. MEC chairperson Justice Anastasia Msosa recently told the Ambassador that the MEC has not reached a position on Muluzi's nomination. In any event, she expects the MEC's decision to be legally challenged and the Constitutional Court to make the definitive decision. It is still unclear how fast the courts will be able to act and the potential remains for a drawn-out legal battle that might jeopardize the May 19 election date. Some Candidates Protest Nomination Fees -------------- ¶4. (U) Some candidates, most notably independent aspirants, are disappointed with the MEC's decision to significantly increase nomination fees. The MEC set fees at $700 USD for parliamentary candidates and $3500 USD for presidential candidates. The fees are twenty times higher than in 2004 and represent a substantial hurdle in a country with an annual per capita income of less than $300 USD. The MEC defended the fees as a way to deter marginal candidates who have a history of withdrawing just before the election. The MEC hopes preventing these late withdrawals will lower the number of spoiled ballots which accounted for over 10% of all votes cast in some constituencies in 2004. The MEC agreed to refund the nomination fees to any candidate that receives over five percent of the votes cast. Malawian courts rejected a challenge over fee levels and upheld the MEC's right to set the fees as it saw fit. EU Close to Finalizing Observer Mission -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A six-member European Union scoping mission will visit Malawi in early February to assess the potential for an international observer mission. EU Head of Delegation Alessandro Mariani said the scoping mission was the final step before approval of an observer mission. Mariani told the Ambassador that the potential EU observer mission would LILONGWE 00000029 002.3 OF 002 include approximately 100 observers. The MEC has already extended a formal invitation to the EU inviting the observer mission to come to Malawi. Parallel Vote Tally Plan Starts Controversy -------------- ¶6. (SBU) After initially offering positive responses regarding domestic observation and a potential parallel vote tally (PVT),on January 7 the MEC informed the Malawi Electoral Support Network (MESN) that a PVT should not be conducted. MESN had notified the MEC of its intent to organize a PVT in November and sought to sign a memorandum of understanding. The MEC cited the implications of a PVT "particularly when there are differences in the results" as its reason for denying the request. The MEC asked for MESN to continue to work together with the MEC at all stages of the elections, however. ¶7. (SBU) After the response, the Ambassador discussed the utility of PVTs and other forms of domestic observation with Msosa in a January meeting. The Ambassador highlighted the recent successful use of PVTs in Zambia and Ghana. Msosa admitted that the MEC had no issue with MESN performing a PVT using official results, but it could not formally sanction the exercise. Msosa believed that the lack of formal MEC approval could prevent foreign aid donors from funding MESN, effectively killing the PVT. ¶8. (SBU) The MEC's response to MESN came after a late December media report on MESN's PVT plan. The report led the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) vice president, Khumbo Kachali, to say the DPP and the government would never allow a PVT. In the press, Kachali further asked the MEC to reverse its acceptance of MESN's proposal. At a January 13 meeting between the MEC, MESN, and all political parties to address the issue, opposition parties, including the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), condemned Kachali's position. At the meeting, all parties (including the DPP representative) supported a PVT as a way to ensure all stakeholders are satisfied with the MEC's results management. However, the next day the government issued an official statement saying it was dismayed by plans to establish a PVT. The statement from the Office of the President and Cabinet said a PVT would be answerable to no one if it published false results. MESN Will Press Forward With or Without Support -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Comment: We believe the government and the DPP still lack a complete understanding of what a parallel vote tally entails. Kachali's comments indicated he believed MESN wanted to actually count ballots, rather than tabulating official polling center results. MESN, for its part, has tried to reach out to all parties and the government to explain the process, but may require help to assuage fears. If the government does not relent, opposition parties will undoubtedly claim government interference with the MEC, and will be less likely to accept the official results in May. Post, along with the British, German, and Canadian aid organizations, remains interested in supporting MESN's efforts for domestic observation, including a potential PVT, but so far only Canadian funding for a National Democratic Institute (NDI) technical assistance scoping mission has materialized. Even without donor funding or explicit MEC approval, MESN says it remains committed to running a PVT on polling day. Given the level of controversy the topic has already raised, we believe the PVT must be well run and that support from an experienced and respected international organization such as NDI can go a long way toward guaranteeing its success. End Comment. BODDE