MALAWI'S TRANSFORMATIONAL ELECTION SHIFTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000283 SIPDIS LONDON FOR AF WATCHER PETER LORD ADDIS ABABA FOR AU E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI SUBJECT: MALAWI'S TRANSFORMATIONAL ELECTION SHIFTS POLITICAL PARADIGMS REF: A. LILONGWE 277 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. LILONGWE 175 ¶C. LILONGWE 44 ¶D. LILONGWE 75 ¶E. LILONGWE 36 LILONGWE 00000283 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: DCM Kevin Sullivan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Malawi's May 19th election transformed the country's political landscape. President Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became the first candidate and party to capture the majority of the votes in all three regions of Malawi (ref A). The decisiveness of the victory surprised domestic analysts and the media, who expected traditional regional voting patterns to prevail. The win provides a strong mandate for Mutharika's economic policies, including the popular fertilizer subsidy program. International observers and local monitors rightly pointed out the strong, pro-DPP bias of state media during the campaign period, but few contend the media alone could explain the magnitude of Mutharika's victory. It is more likely that voters responded to Mutharika's performance, especially his delivering food security for the past four years. The DPP's new, two-thirds majority in the National Assembly prompted civil society organizations to voice concerns about the potential for Mutharika's government to become a parliamentary autocracy. In the near term, however, Mutharika is likely to use his new majority to move quickly on key legislation that was delayed by the legislative gridlock that marked his first administration. End Summary. A TRANSFORMATIONAL ELECTION -------------- ¶2. (C) Since the advent of multi-party democracy in 1994, Malawian voters have voted overwhelmingly in regional blocs, forcing political leaders to enter into loose coalitions to gain the presidency and legislative majorities. When President Mutharika abandoned former president Bakili Muluzi and the United Democratic Front (UDF) to form the DPP in 2005, he eschewed tradition and attempted to form a national party with members from all three regions of Malawi. During the 2009 campaign period, he further defied conventional wisdom by selecting a fellow Southerner, former Foreign Minister Joyce Banda, as his running mate. Many analysts and opinion leaders believed Mutharika lacked the critical geographic support base his rivals enjoyed, and suggested that his development programs had not been far-reaching enough to sway Northern and Central region voters from their traditional regional loyalties. The election results, which saw 77% voter turnout, clearly dispelled those beliefs and transformed the political landscape in Malawi. ¶3. (U) President Mutharika became the first presidential candidate in the history of Malawi to win a majority of votes in all three of the regions. Mutharika captured 95% of the vote in the North, 53% in the Central, and 68% in the South. Moreover, Mutharika won 23 of the 28 districts, losing only Lilongwe, Salima, and John Tembo's home district of Dedza in the Central region, and Muluzi strongholds Machinga and Mangochi in the South. In some areas long thought to be immune to infiltration by the DPP, such as Kasungu and Balaka, Mutharika stunned the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and UDF with double digit victories. In Mulanje, from which Tembo's running mate Brown Mpinganjira hailed, Mutharika captured an overwhelming 84% of the vote. Support for the DPP carried over into the parliamentary races as well, where the DPP also became the first party to win a majority of seats in each region (septel). MCP, UDF FAIL TO DEFEND STRONGHOLDS -------------- ¶4. (C) Faced with the stunning victory of the DPP, the MCP and the UDF are now left to figure out how they lost their once strong geographic bases. Despite a belief that the Northern region was up for grabs due to opinion leaders' disappointment with Mutharika (ref B),voters almost uniformly backed the DPP. In the Central region, where Tembo beat Mutharika 62% to 23% in 2004, Tembo did relatively LILONGWE 00000283 002.2 OF 003 little campaigning, mistakenly believing that he did not have to defend his territory. Some in his own party have now turned against him, demanding that he step down as party president after the dismal electoral outcome in the party's heartland. Losing MCP candidates have also asked Tembo to account for the party's funds and explain why the MCP did not purchase campaign materials and fund rallies. In the South, Muluzi delivered his most ardent supporters in Machinga and Mangochi, but Mutharika's commanding victory in the commercial centers of Blantyre and Zomba effectively fenced in the UDF's already diminishing sphere of influence. While Tembo continues to fight to maintain control of the MCP, Muluzi has already announced he will "retire" from politics and guide the UDF in selecting its next generation leaders. FOOD SECURITY, ECONOMIC STABILITY WEIGH HEAVILY -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The bulk of the credit for Mutharika's victory must go to his agricultural and economic reforms, which helped restore food security and macroeconomic stability to Malawi. Mutharika's popular fertilizer subsidy plan, while imperfectly implemented through a corruption-prone coupon system, achieved its goal of increasing maize production. His government's improved fiscal discipline brought inflation into single digits and stabilized the exchange rate, thus improving the environment for business. Even those who did not directly benefit from fertilizer coupons were able to find adequate food stocks at the markets for affordable prices. Anecdotal conversations with rural voters throughout the country after the election reinforced the importance of full bellies in voters' decisions. STATE MEDIA BIAS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FACTOR -------------- ¶6. (C) As noted by international observers and local monitors, the overwhelming, pro-government bias of the state broadcasters, combined with the use of government funds in DPP campaigns, made it impossible to call the election entirely fair. Although the opposition could rightly claim Mutharika had failed to deliver in some areas - the long delayed Karonga-Chitipa road in the North, the lack of local government elections, and the legally dubious suspension of Parliament in 2008 - voters seemingly accepted Mutharika's defense and instead blamed the opposition for wasting years with the floor-crossing debate. It is difficult to quantify how much voter sentiments were affected by biased reporting and state-funded DPP campaigning, but few, even from the opposition, contend that these factors alone could explain the magnitude of Mutharika's victory. Most voters had access to a full range of information and opinion in private, independent newspapers and radio stations. NEW DPP MAJORITY A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Many of the newly-elected independent MPs, some of whom lost flawed DPP primaries (ref C),have already announced their intention to join the DPP. These additional seats will likely give the DPP a two-thirds majority in the Parliament. This supermajority will enable Mutharika to not only pass legislation easily, but potentially amend the Constitution with little debate. The Human Rights Consultative Committee (HRCC),a leading Malawian civil society group, has already called on media, civil society, and the weakened opposition to be vigilant for government attempts to create a Parliamentary autocracy. Civil society called for increased legislative independence and stressed the need for even a friendly Parliament to provide oversight to executive spending. While the potential for a rubber-stamp Parliament exists, most local observers are focusing on the upside to Bingu's new majority. NGOs and private sector leaders are pushing for the new Parliament to quickly turn its attention to a number of bills that languished during the legislative gridlock that characterized Mutharika's first term. Priority legislation includes a constitutional reform bill that would clarify presidential term lengths, a child justice bill that would criminalize trafficking in persons, and a bill that would authorize LILONGWE 00000283 003.2 OF 003 Malawi to connect its power grid with Mozambique. POSITIVE IMPACT FOR DONORS -------------- ¶8. (C) In Mutharika's inauguration speech, he said he would continue to fight corruption, the major issue that caused a loss of donor confidence in Muluzi's second administration. The GOM has also already asked the Malawi Electoral Commission to develop a budget for local government elections in May 2010. Control of corruption and increased respect for the rule of law can only strengthen donor confidence in Mutharika and Malawi. With a clear majority, Mutharika is also less likely to exhibit some of the paranoia that surfaced in his dealings with foreign aid donors (ref D, E). Significant donor support will be critical to the success of Bingu's aggressive plans to create an irrigated greenbelt along Lake Malawi, rehabilitate the rail line to Mozambique, increase rural electrification, build an inland port at Nsanje, and continue school and road building programs over the next five years. PROOF WILL BE IN THE PERFORMANCE FOR DPP -------------- ¶9. (C) Comment: Mutharika and the DPP's election triumph has turned Malawian politics on its head. The MCP now faces a leadership crisis, and the UDF has potentially been reduced to a niche party. The election also appears to signal the beginning of a major generational shift, and the end of the road for big men John Tembo and Bakili Muluzi. If Mutharika can lead a well-managed government that respects basic freedoms and the rule of law while continuing to deliver economic development, the DPP is in a position to entrench itself as a dominant party in Malawi for years to come. Mutharika's inclusiveness of all regions, tribes, and religions in key positions is likely to continue, further diminishing regional political identification, and consequently the future political prospects of the MCP and UDF. End Comment. BODDE