MALAWI: AU PRACTICES PRE-ELECTION "PREEMPTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000150 SIPDIS SENSITIVE ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AU MI SUBJECT: MALAWI: AU PRACTICES PRE-ELECTION "PREEMPTIVE DIPLOMACY" REF: A. LILONGWE 110 ¶B. LILONGWE 113 LILONGWE 00000150 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Kevin Sullivan for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Former President Joachim Chissano of Mozambique returned to Lilongwe March 5 to facilitate an African Union (AU) sponsored dialogue between President Mutharika, former President Muluzi, and opposition leader John Tembo. The talks brought together Mutharika and Muluzi for the first time in nearly two years. Discussion focused on respect for the rule of law, election observation, and a level playing field for all parties, including in the public media. Chissano denied pressuring Muluzi to abandon his candidacy. The dialogue resulted in a joint communique in which all three leaders signed on to fourteen commitments to encourage free, fair, and credible elections, and to avert actions that might trigger violence. Although it contains no enforcement mechanism, the joint communique will allow the people of Malawi to judge how well their leaders stand up to these commitments. The Chissano/Kufour Mission highlighted once again the moral authority respected former African leaders can wield when democratic institutions come under stress. End Summary. AU Seeks to Bridge the Great Divide -------------- ¶2. (U) On March 5, former Mozambican President Joachim Chissano arrived in Lilongwe as an AU envoy to facilitate dialogue between President Bingu wa Mutharika, former President Bakili Muluzi, and Malawi Congress Party (MCP) leader John Tembo. The trip followed an initial, late-February visit by Chissano and former president Kufour of Ghana (ref A). During the first visit, Chissano and Kufour announced that Mutharika, Muluzi, and Tembo had agreed to meet together with the AU envoys to promote peaceful elections in Malawi. The announcement was quickly overshadowed, however, when the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) arrested Muluzi the next day on charges of corruption (ref B). The arrest spurred the AU mediators to accelerate their timetable for the talks, with Chissano returning alone to start the process. ¶3. (U) On March 7, Chissano formally opened the "Inter-Political Parties Dialogue" which brought together Mutharika and Muluzi for the first time in almost two years. Tembo, who was in South Africa, was represented initially by MCP Secretary General Christopher Daza. During the opening press conference, Chissano dismissed reports that he and Kufour had asked Muluzi to withdraw his candidacy. He said that the AU's only mandate was to assess the pre-election environment, not to assume the responsibilities of the Malawi Electoral Commission or Malawian courts with respect to candidates' eligibility. Chissano emphasized that he would only play the role of facilitator during the dialogue, and that it was up to the leaders of Malawi to find solutions. ¶4. (U) After the opening day of the dialogue, party leaders stepped back and sent five-person delegations to the talks. Mutharika's running-mate Joyce Banda and his brother Peter Mutharika led the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) delegation. Muluzi's United Democratic Front (UDF) team included former Finance Minister Friday Jumbe and Foreign Minister Lillian Patel, while Daza led the MCP team. Talks concluded on March 12 and the three principals met again on March 13 where they signed and released a joint communique. Chissano: Suspicion Yields to Consensus -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In a private briefing March 12, President Chissano donor country Heads of Mission that the Malawian leaders had been characteristically "suspicious," but had gradually opened up as the dialogue process unfolded. The former president indicated that his trip had come at the request of AU Chairperson Jean Ping himself. The idea behind the AU mediation effort had been to engage in preventative diplomacy, "to start thinking and talking before it's too late." After allowing all sides to express their concerns, Chissano said he had been able to slowly gather the pieces of a consensus. He noted that contrary to news reports, he declined to entertain the topic of Muluzi's presidential candidacy, arguing that it was an issue for the Malawi Electoral Commission and the courts to decide. Instead, LILONGWE 00000150 002.2 OF 002 Chissano had focused on renewing the commitments of all parties, including Muluzi and the UDF, to respect the decisions of those institutions legally mandated to decide Muluzi's eligibility to run. "All must be committed to peace, regardless of the decision," Chissano emphasized. ¶6. (SBU) Chissano, who called on the MEC during his visit, remarked that the body appeared to be "under great pressure," including the threat of violence. He reported that all participants in the inter-party dialogue expressed confidence in MEC Chairperson Justice Msosa, but that it was necessary to find new ways to build confidence in the MEC as an institution. The Supreme Court, on the other hand, had appeared calm as it contemplated the prospect of a controversial ruling on the highly-charged issue of the Muluzi candidacy. Key Issues: Parallel Tally and a Level Playing Field -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In the communique (text emailed to AF/S),the leaders agreed to fourteen commitments to level the playing field and avert actions that could impede free and fair elections or trigger election-related violence. Among the commitments were ensuring impartial law enforcement, enhancing the operational capacity of the Malawi Electoral Commission, and guaranteeing equitable access to state media. The leaders also committed to adhere to the rule of law, and to desist in the publication of defamatory remarks. The communique offered no details to explain how these fourteen commitments would be implemented, however. Tarek Shariff told emboffs that the communique was "a framework that the signatories and others must build upon." Shariff admitted that the communique itself had no enforcement mechanisms, but said the AU hoped the document would help defuse the electoral tension. ¶8. (SBU) Apart from the Muluzi candidacy and a level electoral playing field, Chissano said that the most contentious point discussed was that concerning a "parallel tally center." Opposition leaders had strongly advocated for an independent tally center, while the GOM continued to oppose anything that undercut the authority of the MEC. Chissano said that he had eventually been successful in establishing that a parallel tally need not be "a rival to the MEC, and could serve the interests of all sides." He remarked that while positions had softened considerably, further discussion among the parties on precise modalities would be required to achieve real consensus on this point. In a separate conversation, Tarek Sharif, Senior Policy Officer for the AU in Lilongwe, said Chissano had assured the ruling DPP that parallel vote tallies were now common practice in elections. He said Chissano had described how his own party had performed one in Mozambique to verify official election results. Comment: Dialogue and Communique Positive Steps -------------- --- ¶9. (C) The AU's pre-emptive diplomacy mission by the AU -- a first, according to Sharif -- succeeded in bringing together Mutharika and Muluzi for substantive, private talks for the first time in years. Moreover, all three major party leaders are now on record supporting free, fair, and credible elections, and perhaps more importantly, a commitment to a peaceful electoral process. The true test of the commitments, the official campaign period, began March 17. In his briefing, Chissano noted pointedly that he personally would find it difficult to return to Malawi around the time of the elections due to some family commitments. In that case, the African Union may need to develop some alternate plans in case the parties to this week's memorandum of understanding do not live up to their promises. The Chissano/Kufour Mission highlighted once again the moral authority respected former African leaders can wield when democratic institutions come under stress. BODDE