MALAWI: AU PRACTICES PRE-ELECTION "PREEMPTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000150

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AU MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI: AU PRACTICES PRE-ELECTION "PREEMPTIVE
DIPLOMACY"

REF: A. LILONGWE 110

B. LILONGWE 113

LILONGWE 00000150 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Kevin Sullivan for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Former President Joachim Chissano of
Mozambique returned to Lilongwe March 5 to facilitate an
African Union (AU) sponsored dialogue between President
Mutharika, former President Muluzi, and opposition leader
John Tembo. The talks brought together Mutharika and Muluzi
for the first time in nearly two years. Discussion focused
on respect for the rule of law, election observation, and a
level playing field for all parties, including in the public
media. Chissano denied pressuring Muluzi to abandon his
candidacy. The dialogue resulted in a joint communique in
which all three leaders signed on to fourteen commitments to
encourage free, fair, and credible elections, and to avert
actions that might trigger violence. Although it contains
no enforcement mechanism, the joint communique will allow the
people of Malawi to judge how well their leaders stand up to
these commitments. The Chissano/Kufour Mission highlighted
once again the moral authority respected former African
leaders can wield when democratic institutions come under
stress. End Summary.

AU Seeks to Bridge the Great Divide
--------------


2. (U) On March 5, former Mozambican President Joachim
Chissano arrived in Lilongwe as an AU envoy to facilitate
dialogue between President Bingu wa Mutharika, former
President Bakili Muluzi, and Malawi Congress Party (MCP)
leader John Tembo. The trip followed an initial,
late-February visit by Chissano and former president Kufour
of Ghana (ref A). During the first visit, Chissano and
Kufour announced that Mutharika, Muluzi, and Tembo had agreed
to meet together with the AU envoys to promote peaceful
elections in Malawi. The announcement was quickly
overshadowed, however, when the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB)
arrested Muluzi the next day on charges of corruption (ref
B). The arrest spurred the AU mediators to accelerate their
timetable for the talks, with Chissano returning alone to
start the process.


3. (U) On March 7, Chissano formally opened the
"Inter-Political Parties Dialogue" which brought together
Mutharika and Muluzi for the first time in almost two years.
Tembo, who was in South Africa, was represented initially by
MCP Secretary General Christopher Daza. During the opening
press conference, Chissano dismissed reports that he and
Kufour had asked Muluzi to withdraw his candidacy. He said
that the AU's only mandate was to assess the pre-election
environment, not to assume the responsibilities of the Malawi
Electoral Commission or Malawian courts with respect to
candidates' eligibility. Chissano emphasized that he would
only play the role of facilitator during the dialogue, and
that it was up to the leaders of Malawi to find solutions.


4. (U) After the opening day of the dialogue, party leaders
stepped back and sent five-person delegations to the talks.
Mutharika's running-mate Joyce Banda and his brother Peter
Mutharika led the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
delegation. Muluzi's United Democratic Front (UDF) team
included former Finance Minister Friday Jumbe and Foreign
Minister Lillian Patel, while Daza led the MCP team. Talks
concluded on March 12 and the three principals met again on
March 13 where they signed and released a joint communique.

Chissano: Suspicion Yields to Consensus
--------------


5. (SBU) In a private briefing March 12, President Chissano
donor country Heads of Mission that the Malawian leaders had
been characteristically "suspicious," but had gradually
opened up as the dialogue process unfolded. The former
president indicated that his trip had come at the request of
AU Chairperson Jean Ping himself. The idea behind the AU
mediation effort had been to engage in preventative
diplomacy, "to start thinking and talking before it's too
late." After allowing all sides to express their concerns,
Chissano said he had been able to slowly gather the pieces of
a consensus. He noted that contrary to news reports, he
declined to entertain the topic of Muluzi's presidential
candidacy, arguing that it was an issue for the Malawi
Electoral Commission and the courts to decide. Instead,

LILONGWE 00000150 002.2 OF 002


Chissano had focused on renewing the commitments of all
parties, including Muluzi and the UDF, to respect the
decisions of those institutions legally mandated to decide
Muluzi's eligibility to run. "All must be committed to
peace, regardless of the decision," Chissano emphasized.


6. (SBU) Chissano, who called on the MEC during his visit,
remarked that the body appeared to be "under great pressure,"
including the threat of violence. He reported that all
participants in the inter-party dialogue expressed confidence
in MEC Chairperson Justice Msosa, but that it was necessary
to find new ways to build confidence in the MEC as an
institution. The Supreme Court, on the other hand, had
appeared calm as it contemplated the prospect of a
controversial ruling on the highly-charged issue of the
Muluzi candidacy.

Key Issues: Parallel Tally and a Level Playing Field
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) In the communique (text emailed to AF/S),the
leaders agreed to fourteen commitments to level the playing
field and avert actions that could impede free and fair
elections or trigger election-related violence. Among the
commitments were ensuring impartial law enforcement,
enhancing the operational capacity of the Malawi Electoral
Commission, and guaranteeing equitable access to state media.
The leaders also committed to adhere to the rule of law, and
to desist in the publication of defamatory remarks. The
communique offered no details to explain how these fourteen
commitments would be implemented, however. Tarek Shariff
told emboffs that the communique was "a framework that the
signatories and others must build upon." Shariff admitted
that the communique itself had no enforcement mechanisms, but
said the AU hoped the document would help defuse the
electoral tension.


8. (SBU) Apart from the Muluzi candidacy and a level
electoral playing field, Chissano said that the most
contentious point discussed was that concerning a "parallel
tally center." Opposition leaders had strongly advocated for
an independent tally center, while the GOM continued to
oppose anything that undercut the authority of the MEC.
Chissano said that he had eventually been successful in
establishing that a parallel tally need not be "a rival to
the MEC, and could serve the interests of all sides." He
remarked that while positions had softened considerably,
further discussion among the parties on precise modalities
would be required to achieve real consensus on this point.
In a separate conversation, Tarek Sharif, Senior Policy
Officer for the AU in Lilongwe, said Chissano had assured the
ruling DPP that parallel vote tallies were now common
practice in elections. He said Chissano had described how
his own party had performed one in Mozambique to verify
official election results.

Comment: Dialogue and Communique Positive Steps
-------------- ---


9. (C) The AU's pre-emptive diplomacy mission by the AU -- a
first, according to Sharif -- succeeded in bringing together
Mutharika and Muluzi for substantive, private talks for the
first time in years. Moreover, all three major party leaders
are now on record supporting free, fair, and credible
elections, and perhaps more importantly, a commitment to a
peaceful electoral process. The true test of the
commitments, the official campaign period, began March 17.
In his briefing, Chissano noted pointedly that he personally
would find it difficult to return to Malawi around the time
of the elections due to some family commitments. In that
case, the African Union may need to develop some alternate
plans in case the parties to this week's memorandum of
understanding do not live up to their promises. The
Chissano/Kufour Mission highlighted once again the moral
authority respected former African leaders can wield when
democratic institutions come under stress.
BODDE