GABON: THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: DOUBTS ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LIBREVILLE 000412 SIPDIS AF/C FOR LISA KORTE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL GB SUBJECT: GABON: THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: DOUBTS ABOUT THE VOTE COUNT REF: 09 LIBREVILLE 00405 Classified By: Ambassador Eunice Reddick for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Gabon,s presidential election process continues to move forward. On September 4, Ali Bongo Ondimba was announced as the winner of the August 30 presidential election (Reftel). Opposition requests for an independent vote count were rejected. Losing candidates have 15 days (until September 19) to submit their challenges to the results before Bongo officially becomes president. Given charges of inflated voters lists and ballot box tampering, we expect the challenges will likely feature inconsistencies between the demographics and voter turnout in Bongo's home province, the largest source of his votes. Opposition candidates appear to have no common strategy to effectively challenge the election outcome, despite winning 58 percent of the vote. As a result, there is likely to be insufficient evidence to conclude that Bongo "stole" the election from one of his two closest competitors ) Pierre Mamboundou or Andre Mba Obame. END SUMMARY. -------------- CONCERNS ABOUT THE NUMBERS -------------- ¶2. (C) As of September 10, no candidate had filed an official challenge to Ali Bongo Ondimba's victory in Gabon,s August 30 election. According to Gabon's Constitution, the candidates have 15 days after the Constitutional Court's verification of the official results on September 4 to file a challenge. This means the opposition has until September 19 to challenge the results. Opposition and independent candidates, including runner-up candidates Pierre Mamboundou and Andre Mba Obame, claim widespread fraud based on inflated voters lists and ballot box tampering. Some candidates have partial vote tallies gleaned from their representatives in voters' bureaus around the country on election day. Mamboundou shared his vote count with emboffs which showed him winning the election with 41 percent of the vote. Both Mamboundou and Bruno Ben Moubamba registered their complaints with the Ambassador and emboffs, but lacked confidence in the Constitutional Court's independence and were non-committal on whether they would file formal challenges to Bongo's victory. Besides requesting an internationally-monitored recount, the opposition has done little else to effectively represent the interests of the majority of voters, who did not vote for Bongo. Both warned that "things were not over" but could not provide a specific strategy for the way forward. ¶3. (C) Most observers agree on one significant inconsistency: the large turnout and vote count from Haut-Ogooue, home province of the Bongo family and Teke ethnic group. Haut-Ogooue is a sparsely populated, densely forested region which lacks significant infrastructure. It was the only province that voted, according to Ministry of Interior numbers, overwhelmingly for Ali Bongo. The government reported before the election two largest voter populations were the 88,490 eligible voters in Haut-Ogooue and the 77,292 voters in Ogooue-Maritime (the province with the second most populated city in Gabon, Port Gentil, and a traditional opposition stronghold). However, other government statistics indicate there are approximately 44,000 people in Franceville, Haut-Ogooue province and 111,000 people in Port Gentil, Ogooue-Maritime province. Most observers do not accept that Port Gentil and its province had 10,000 fewer eligible voters than Haut-Ogooue. ¶4. (C) According to the Ministry of Interior, 58,210 people voted in Haut-Ogooue -- almost 65 percent of eligible voters -- a number that is considerably higher (by 15 percentage points) than any of Gabon's eight other provinces. Embassy monitors that visited multiple sites in Libreville, Oyem in Woleu-Ntem province, and Port Gentil reported participation rates closer to 30 percent across the board. ¶5. (C) According to Embassy analysis, without the large number of votes from Haut-Ogooue, Ali Bongo's 41 percent of the overall vote shrinks significantly. Controlling for a voting percentage in Haut-Ogooue closer to that in other provinces and a more reasonable voting population, Ali Bongo would lose 6 ) 12 percent of his overall official vote count, bringing him within the margin of error of the other two leading vote-getters; Pierre Mamboundou with 25 percent and Andre Mba Obame with 26 percent. Other provinces, LIBREVILLE 00000412 002 OF 002 particularly those bordering Haut-Ogooue, also have suspiciously high voter turnouts as well, which coupled with the discrepancies in Haut-Ogooue could push Ali Bongo,s numbers even lower. The inflated numbers also fuel rumors that "foreigners" from Republic of Congo, which borders Haut-Ogooue, and other non-citizens were registered during the revision of the electoral lists prior to the election. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) It is not likely that regional vote inflation will overturn the election on its own, but more realistic numbers from Haut-Ogooue would have eroded the comfortable win margin for Ali Bongo, forcing him to be more amenable to negotiating with the opposition. Moreover, Haut-Ogooue benefited greatly from the financial windfalls from the late President Bongo and anything less than an overwhelming rally behind his heir apparent, Ali, would have been seen as a significant blow to Ali's presidential bid. Minister of Interior Ndongou has acknowledged problems with the revision of the electoral lists, attributing duplicate names and other errors to the short period for the revision. However, discontented candidates and Gabonese are reading purposeful intent into what the Minister has called unintentional "human error." To date, no challenges have been filed in the Constitutional Court, which opposition candidates dismiss as a rubber stamp. We continue to urge all parties to respect the process and seek peaceful and constitutional means of redress. END COMMENT. REDDICK