GABON: A PARTING SHOT BEFORE THE ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000399 SIPDIS A/C FOR LISA KORTE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL GB SUBJECT: GABON: A PARTING SHOT BEFORE THE ELECTION Classified By: Ambassador Eunice Reddick for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Two days before Gabonese go to the polls, twenty-three candidates are still officially in the race for the presidency. Despite press reports of discussions between eleven opposition and independent candidates to support Andre Mba Obame, no alliances have formed to strengthen support for one candidate to challenge ruling PDG candidate Ali Bongo Ondimba. ¶2. (C) Thanks to an expensive, American-style campaign, Bongo has made progress in overcoming his lackluster personal popularity among many Gabonese and the negative aspect of the dynasty legacy from his father. He also has been able to rely on the pervasive ruling PDG presence throughout the country to mobilize members at massive rallies. ¶3. (C) Contrary to early speculation about the future of the PDG, rather than unraveling with the defection of several party leaders after the nomination of Bongo, the party structure appears to have held and suffered no major financial or membership losses. The PDG,s network of &barons8 has helped finance Bongo,s campaign and produced members of his campaign team. The ruling party machinery operating in full gear along with a slick campaign will be a difficult combination to beat. ¶4. (C) Also to Bongo,s advantage, opposition parties have failed to significantly expand their appeal beyond ethnic and regional bases, and to build a functioning party structure that has a life and purpose between elections. Following the election, the next steps of independent candidates such as Casimir Oye Mba and Jean Eyeghe Ndong will be closely watched to see if they move to create a new party or parties, or return to the PDG fold. ¶5. (C) In hindsight, we should credit the late Omar Bongo Ondimba with more preparation for a successor than was apparent during the last months of his life. The cabinet reshuffles, PDG restructuring at the 2008 party congress, and military leadership changes in late 2008 all contributed to a stronger position for Ali Bongo to maneuver into the PDG,s nomination, create a loyal group of supporters in the cabinet and the party, and ensure that he could rely on the support of the military during the transition. ¶6. (C) Key institutions have proven to be stronger than thought, including the Constitutional Court and the office of the Presidency during the transition. Court President Madeleine Mbarantsuo and Interim President Rose Francine Rogombe have played important roles in upholding Gabon's constitution and laws during the transition, but hasty election preparations and recent questions about the position of both women in the PDG could lead to post-election dissent over irregularities and biased consideration of challenges to the election's results. ¶7. (C) We predict there will be a large turnout at the polls. Whatever the outcome on the 30th, Gabon,s voters will have had more choices in candidates; exposure to serious discussion of Gabon,s problems in the media, including corruption and failure of governance; and freedom to express a wide range of political views than in previous presidential elections. Gabonese cherish the forty plus years of peace and unity the country has experienced, but they also expect greater prosperity under the next president. However, it remains to be seen whether the call from candidates and voters for a free, fair and transparent election will be heeded. REDDICK