GABON: IS THE VOTERS LIST INFLATED?

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000395 SIPDIS AF/C FOR LISA KORTE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL GB SUBJECT: GABON: IS THE VOTERS LIST INFLATED? REF: 09 LIBREVILLE 00389 Classified By: Ambassador Eunice Reddick for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Independent candidate Bruno Ben Moubamba was hospitalized briefly on August 22 in the 7th day of his hunger strike (reftel). He returned to his spot at the entrance of the National Assembly after being treated and is now drinking juices. Prior to the start of the hunger strike Moubamba, along with ten other candidates, submitted a report alleging irregularities in the electoral process. One of the concerns mentioned in the report is the revision of the electoral list and the possibility of fraud that could result from an inflated number of registered voters. A Gabonese journalist has challenged the government's figure of 813,164 registered voters as a result of the revision of the voters' list. The accuracy of the revised list and concern about an inflated number of registered voters are likely to fuel suspicion of fraud after the election results are in. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) The daily l'Union newspaper carried an article on August 22 about independent candidate Bruno Ben Moubamba's hunger strike and a commentary that noted the cynicism of some observers who regarded his hunger strike as a "marketing" and campaign technique. However, the commentator, a l'Union journalist, found some reason in Moubamba's denunciation of the electoral list revision. ¶3. (SBU) The journalist highlighted the number of registered voters announced August 14 by the Minister of the Interior -- 813,164 registered voters in a population of 1.5 million. Citing Gabon's 1993 census, the journalist noted there were 416,190 children below the age of 15 and 100,448 adolescents between the ages of 15 and 17 in a total population of 1,014,976. Combining the two figures, the journalist pointed out that there were 516,538 Gabonese under the age of 18 in 1993 -) more than half the population was ineligible to vote. Using the same ratio of youth under the age of 18 to the entire population today of about 1.5 million, the journalist concluded that the Interior Ministry figure of more than 800,000 registered voters appeared to be inflated. ¶4. (C) Comment: The breakdown of the population statistics was the first analysis we've seen that challenges the results of the government's electoral list revision. Moubamba and other independent and opposition candidates demanded an extension of the revision period to improve the accuracy of the list. While there may have been some improvements in the list after a longer revision process, the results may not necessarily have been more reliable. Gabon's census statistics are notoriously unreliable. To illustrate, the journalist chose to cite 1993 census figures and reject those of the widely denounced 2003 census for his commentary. Besides failing to revise the electoral list annually as required under law, Gabon's government also has been unable to come up with an accurate count of a population that includes over 100,000 migrants from other African nations, most of whom have not legalized their status. Speculation about the number of registered voters has fed rumors that the ruling party has surreptitiously registered "foreigners" (ex, Congolese in Haut Ogooue province) and apprehension about the validity of the results of the election. END COMMENT. REDDICK