THURINGIA ELECTION AFTERMATH: CALLS FOR A GRAND COALITION

UNCLAS LEIPZIG 000028 SIPDIS FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: THURINGIA ELECTION AFTERMATH: CALLS FOR A GRAND COALITION WITHOUT ALTHAUS COULD SAVE CDU REF: Leipzig 26 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Having lost its absolute majority in the August 30 state elections, Thuringia's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) may resort to pushing Minister-President Dieter Althaus aside to increase its chances of forming a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD). A CDU-SPD coalition could benefit the SPD nationally by showcasing the possibility of another Grand Coalition. Some prominent CDU leaders in Thuringia have blamed Althaus for this major loss, and have called upon him to resign. The CDU understands that the SPD would be hard-pressed to form a coalition with the CDU with Althaus as Minister President having based its election campaign on an appeal for change from the "Althaus system." The SPD is the "kingmaker" in coalition negotiations, and also has the option of forming a coalition with The Left Party and the Greens. End Summary. -------------- Althaus as Liability -------------- ¶2. (SBU) SPD representatives told local press and ConGen staff that a CDU-SPD coalition with current MP Dieter Althaus is unthinkable. SPD MP candidate Christoph Matschie's pronouncement that people in Thuringia voted against "the Althaus system," indicates the difficulty Matschie would have now entering into a coalition with an Althaus-led CDU. The CDU lost 11 percent of its support (from 2004 levels) in the August 30 state elections, ending up with 31.2 percent of the vote and losing its absolute majority (reftel). The Left party received 26 percent and the SPD 18 percent of the vote, making the SPD the "kingmaker" in forming a new government. The SPD also has the option of building a coalition with the Left Party, but this is problematic since the SPD says it will not enter such a coalition with a Left Party minister president. What's more, the SPD ran a campaign calling for change from Althaus's CDU, so aligning itself now with an Althaus-led CDU would likely also prompt strong criticism from the Left Party and could injure the SPD's image in Thuringia in the long run. ¶3. (U) In the aftermath of the elections, calls for Althaus's resignation have come from CDU politicians who want the CDU to stay in power and to prevent a governing coalition of the Left Party and the SPD. Vera Lengsfeld, former CDU member of the Bundestag from Thuringia told the press on September 1 that "the CDU has to show that it cares about the future of the state and not about a person." Also, Michael Brychcy (CDU),mayor of Waltershausen and President of the association of Thuringia municipalities, declared that Althaus should resign and give the CDU a "new start." -------------- Comment: Enter, Lieberknecht? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) If Althaus resigns, Minister for Social Affairs Christine Lieberknecht is favored by political analysts and the press to take Althaus's position. Lieberknecht has headed several ministries since 1990; as a former pastor, she is known for her ability to mediate and building bridges -- a skill necessary to bring two parties together which fought heavily against each other in the election campaign. A grand coalition has advantages for both the CDU and SPD. The CDU would be able to remain in power, with a CDU M-P, certainly a face-saving solution for the CDU in the month before national elections. A CDU-SPD coalition in Thuringia could boost the SPD, showcasing the CDU-SPD coalition model before the upcoming national elections, where the SPD's best hope is another coalition with the CDU (Grand Coalition). It would also mean that the SPD could avoid discussions of an SPD-Left Party-Greens (red-red-green) coalition, which many on the state and national level do not support. Althaus himself, however, would have to willingly step down and must find a way to do so without losing face; some analysts suggest he could become chairman of the CDU's political institution, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. End Comment. ¶5. (U) This message was coordinated with U.S. Embassy, Berlin. BRUCKERK