SENATE MURDER PLOT TURNS INTO PANDO "TELL ALL"

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000094 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2029 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR VN BL SUBJECT: SENATE MURDER PLOT TURNS INTO PANDO "TELL ALL" REF: A. 08 LA PAZ 2543 ¶B. 08 LA PAZ 2483 ¶C. 08 LA PAZ 2374 Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Joe Relk for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Bolivian television networks aired testimony January 19 from the supposed organizer of the pro-government, September 11, 2008 campesino (peasant farmer) march in Pando Department that accuses Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana of arming the group with the purpose of violently overthrowing Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez. The march resulted in bloody confrontations with opposition sympathizers and 17 deaths, according to Bolivia's Human Rights Ombudsman (reftels). In the video, Blusher Niels Alpire also accused Quintana of asking him to kill opposition Senator Roger Pinto and heading up trumped-up arrests of opposition-aligned leaders in Pando during the September to November state of siege. Shortly before the story broke, Pinto told PolOff that he had arranged the taping early the same day, was hiding Alpire, and had more proof he would release after the January 25 constitutional referendum. Pinto hoped the video and "more proof" to come would completely discredit the government's version of a Pando "massacre" of campesinos and turn international opinion against Bolivian President Evo Morales. We are more skeptical. Pinto also hoped the testimony would serve to insulate him from alleged government plots against him. End Summary. Twas the Night Before Christmas: Pinto Outlines Murder Plot -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Opposition Senator Roger Pinto (Podemos, Pando; strictly protect) told PolOff the principal field commander of the September 11 campesino march in Pando Department (state),Blusher Alpire, came to his house December 24 to explain that he had rejected orders from Cobija City Councilman and pro-government radical Miguel "Chiquitin" Becerra to assassinate Pinto. Alpire alleged Chiquitin called him November 27 to tell him that Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana had ordered Pinto be killed and that he was selected to carry out the assassination. Alpire, who describes himself as Chiquitin's close associate, sometime bodyguard and driver, and all-purpose thug, originally said he couldn't do it because he didn't have the right weapon for a close-quarters assassination job (AR-15 automatic rifle). ¶3. (C) Within days Chiquitin provided Alpire two military-issue 9mm pistols and a bullet-proof vest, which Chiquitin allegedly claimed were sent compliments of Quintana, and said $10,000 would be waiting for him after the hit. Running out of excuses, Alpire said he simply refused to shoot Pinto. Chiquitin was not pleased, but did not punish Alpire and simply found another would-be assassin, a Brazilian code named Pantera (panther). Alpire Turns for Love of Money, not Love of Pinto -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Alpire told Pinto he declined to accept the offer because Pinto's family had been charitable to his poor Cobija family through church activities. Alpire added that he recognized Pinto was not a rank-and-file "Leopoldista" (supporter of ex-Prefect/governor Leopoldo Fernandez, who was arrested in September),which he had less scruples about killing. According to Pinto, Alpire also expressed second thoughts about his activities on September 11 to "force a confrontation" with Fernandez's backers. However, Pinto insisted Alpire turned on Chiquitin not out of any abiding love for Pinto, but because Chiquitin did not deliver on promises to pay Alpire in full for his organization of the September 11 march and other political organizations. Opposition strategist and close Pinto associate Javier Flores (strictly protect) told PolOff January 21 that Alpire's convictions were 20 percent of the reason he turned on Chiquitin, but that "revenge" for unfulfilled Chiquitin promises was 80 percent. Alpire Confession's Potential to turn Bolivia Inside Out -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Pinto said he immediately started trying to convince Alpire to go public, recognizing that his testimony would "turn the government version (of Pando events) on its head," gravely discredit its officials and its characterization of a Pando "massacre," and have a huge negative impact on international opinion and "anyone's ability to take this government at its word." Although he generally discounted the domestic political impact of Alpire's testimony, Pinto thought the political blowback from "proving the government lied" about Pando might tip the balance against a government-sponsored January 25 constitution referendum in departments where the vote is closely contested. Pinto speculated that Alpire's story might be enough to force Quintana to stand down once a Senate investigation is launched, although he assumed in such an event Quintana would continue to influence events as an unofficial Morales advisor. (Note: Quintana is already under congressional investigation for corruption. End Note). Pinto Brings Alpire to La Paz for "Tell All" -------------- ¶6. (C) Pinto claimed he convinced Alpire to come with him to La Paz after the holidays. Pinto said "we are" currently hiding Alpire in La Paz, referring to a close-knit group of Podemos-affiliated congressmen, evangelicals, and opposition leaders. Alpire allegedly told Pinto that Chiquitin offered him 400,000 Bs to come back to Cobija, but Alpire "knows too much," according to Pinto, to risk going back and was "smart enough to know that he's in danger if he returns." Pinto and his associates had been desperately trying to find a prosecutor to take Alpire's case, testimony, and evidence, after which Alpire would meet with two or three select media contacts for a "tell all" interview and then promptly leave the country. Pinto said Alpire would then spend two or three years in hiding in the third country (hinting Peru) before publicly reemerging, perhaps in Bolivia pending a change of government. Alpire has no passport, only an identification card, according to Pinto. Plan B: Record, Release, Run -------------- ¶7. (C) Flores told PolOff that by January 19, the plan had changed and the Alpire video, recorded that morning, was released directly to the media. Flores said "it was just impossible to find a prosecutor and judge" who was suspect of being bought off or otherwise vulnerable to government control. Flores said they would continue to pursue a legal complaint and (less likely) Senate investigation, but not until after the January 25 constitutional referendum. He claimed the video's release just before the referendum had "zero" political motivation and was instead rushed out "in order to protect Alpire," who had called Chiquitin January 17 or 18, asking him for money to return from "Santa Cruz." Although Alpire was never in Santa Cruz, Flores said "Chiquitin immediately sent people out to find him." ¶8. (C) Portions of the video aired on various Bolivian networks' evening broadcasts January 19 (one network devoted about 20 minutes to it). Alpire made all the accusations Pinto had predicted and displayed the weapons and vest. He added that Chiquitin had also offered to buy Alpire the house he was living in for killing Pinto and stressed his role directing arrests of Pando opposition leaders during a September to November state of siege. "All the arrests made in Pando I conducted, accompanied by at least six soldiers ... We had a long list, including senators Roger Pinto and Paulo Bravo. Because we could not detain them, we compensated by detaining leaders, people linked to (opposition) politics ... but people that were not even in the area (Porvenir) during the day of the conflict." He added that Chiquitin had provided him $7,000 to buy weapons for the march September 8 and displayed photos of the September 11 violence, apparently from the vantage point of the marchers, including of slain prefect engineer Pedro Oshiro Yoshida. Alpire said "his friend" Pantera shot Oshiro and that he would release additional photos. Government's Unsurprising Response: Alpire is a Liar -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Chiquitin conceded publicly January 19 that he vaguely knew Alpire, but that he never worked for him. The same day Vice Minister of Justice Wilfredo Chavez called Alpire a "liar" paid by Pinto to spread "accusations that lack seriousness." Presidential Spokesman Ivan Canelas called the charges "a political show" designed to influence the January 25 constitutional referendum. Pinto Ups the Ante and Accuses Evo -------------- ¶10. (U) Pinto responded to Alpire's confession January 20, accusing President Evo Morales of complacency in the plot and stating "if anything happens to me or my family, President Morales should be held responsible." Pinto also criticized Government Minister Alfredo Rada for asking Alpire to present his testimony to the Pando prosecutor with security "guarantees," and then threatening to arrest him for the "crime" of transporting arms without a license. "My country has become completely backwards. The government is protecting the culprit (Quintana) and making charges at the witness (Alpire)." Pinto's High-Stakes Gambit Short on Smoking Guns -------------- --- ¶11. (C) Days before the video was recorded and released, Pinto conceded that beyond implicating Quintana, Becerra, and Filadelfia Mayor Antonio Aguilera of financing/organizing/arming the march to sack Fernandez as violently "as necessary," he did not know the full extent of the information Alpire had gathered or planned to share. "We are not friends; he does not tell me everything." As far as hard evidence, Pinto cited the military-issue weapons, bullets, and bullet-proof vest. Flores asserted that "more proof" would emerge as additional segments of the hour and half Alpire video are released to the media, which would include testimony that Venezuelans had helped organize the march and that Venezuelans had helped Quintana orchestrate a cover-up. ¶12. (C) Flores said Alpire had a large collection of "evidence:" videos, photos, and recordings, not all of which he has shared with Pinto's group. Flores said Alpire recorded two conversations with his cell phone between himself, Quintana, and Chiquitin organizing the march on September 8. He provided one recording of an innocuous conversation to Pinto's group, which only proves they know each other. Pinto said Alpire is holding another recording for money, in which Quintana talks about gathering arms to violently sack Prefect Fernandez. Flores added that "it is only a matter of time" before Pandinos contradict Chuiquitin's contention he didn't really know Alpire. The government Pando prosecution team conceded Alpire was "an actor" in the September 11 Porvenir conflict as video of Alpire driving a Filadelfia municipal pick-up truck through Porvenir emerged in local TV reports. (Note: The video later shows explosions emanating from crates in the back of the truck, which the opposition contends was filled with bullets and government backers contend was filled with fireworks. End Note.) Flores said Pinto would wait until after January 25 to take additional action in the case to "lend credence that the case is not political," with the exception of possibly releasing the recording of Alpire talking to Chiquitin, proving a familiar relationship. Flores said Alpire "was safe," but refused to disclose his location. Pinto: GOB Out to Shut My Big Mouth; Silence Opposition -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) When asked why Quintana focused on him instead of other opposition leaders, Pinto said "because I'm the only one who didn't keep his mouth shut." He said he is the only opposition leaders from Pando who has not shied away from criticizing the government. Pinto claimed that the state of siege and subsequent arrests had succeeded to brining the rest of Pando's opposition to heal, which he claimed was the principal reason for invoking the police state. Pinto conceded that friend and fellow Senator Paulo Bravo had to be repeatedly cajoled to campaign publicly against the referendum and that National Unity Senator Jose Villavicencio "has hardly been seen" since September 11, fearing arrest. Pinto added abut 200 opposition-aligned Pandinos continue to live as refugees on the Brazilian side of the border, 104 of them with Bolivian government arrest orders. Pinto added that about 700 of 900 Pandinos that had fled to Brazil to avoid government prosecution had returned to Pando in December after the arrest warrants became public. ¶14. (C) Pinto claimed the military was given special instructions to detain, not arrest, Pinto and Fernandez's nephew Lorenzo Fernandez during the Pando state of siege, and "shot them on their doorsteps" if they offered up the "slightest hint of resistance." He characterized this as giving the troops a wink and nod to kill them. Pinto claimed after Quintana was unsuccessful getting rid of him during the state of siege, when he had "complete control of Pando," Quintana resorted to crude assassination. Alpire allegedly told Pinto that Quintana wanted Pinto silenced because he was "sick of Pinto" and it was clear government pressure was "not working" on him. Alpire allegedly also said Quintana hoped such a killing would "cause the opposition to implode upon itself in fear" and Chiquitin hoped it would scare away would-be assassins gunning for him. Alpire as Life Insurance Policy -------------- ¶15. (C) Despite the alleged contract on his life, Pinto has no immediate plans to leave the country and will instead "continue fighting the government" in the Senate. Pinto hoped Alpire's testimony would act as a kind of insurance on his life, as the government would decide not to kill him to avoid being instantly implicated. Pinto claimed ex-Prefect Fernandez was skeptical of Alpire and the ability of his testimony to shield Pinto from harm. "They might just use it to arrest you," Fernandez allegedly told Pinto. (Note: Pinto did not clarify how or when he communicated with the jailed Fernandez. End Note.) Comment: -------------- ¶16. (C) It is certainly possible that Pinto paid Alpire to go public with his claims, but that does not necessarily mean the charges are baseless. At a minimum, the charges represent a very public questioning of the government's highly politicized and manipulated version of the Pando events, endorsed by the Unasur report, which the international community should hear. We share Prefect Fernandez's alleged skepticism of Alpire's claims and motives. Also, although Pinto and Flores assure more proof is on the way, there is for the moment little indisputable proof to back up the crux of Alpire's claims. The government's blunt knee-jerk reaction that Alpire is a liar may be enough for the international community, at least before the January 25 constitutional referendum. Investigating the charges will require time and even if Alpire's story can be corroborated, for example by tracking the serial numbers on the weapons, such corroboration is unlikely to sway Morales' base supporters, who may well not care if Quintana deliberately provoked the Pando conflict. Like the Senate investigation of Presidential Palace guard Lt. Jorge Nava for bombing a television affiliate in Tarija, the domestic effect in this case is likely only to galvanize the opposition -- preaching to the choir. Murder, money, mayhem, and political manipulation with the constitutional referendum just days away -- you just can't make this stuff up ... or can you? End Comment. URS