SANTA CRUZ "NO" CAMPAIGN WORKING FOR EVERY VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000090 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019 TAGS: PGOV ECON ASEC CONS BL SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ "NO" CAMPAIGN WORKING FOR EVERY VOTE Classified By: Acting ECOPOL Chief Joe Relk for reason 1.4 (b) ¶1. (C) With less than a week before the January 25 constitutional referendum, both the pro-government "Yes" and the anti-government "No" campaigns have stepped up efforts in Santa Cruz Department (state). Pro-government Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) forces have a higher campaign budget in Santa Cruz, as evidenced by a heavy advantage in the number of billboards and media propaganda. On the other hand, the "No" campaigners have a lot more enthusiasm and support in this pro-opposition bastion. Every statue in Santa Cruz is dressed in the rainbow-colored "No" stickers that dancing, drum-beating youth (on vacation from universities and schools until February) hand out on seemingly every corner of the capital. Vice President Garcia Linera visited the heavily MAS-aligned town of "El Torno" 30 kilometers outside Santa Cruz on January 14 to hand out land titles to settlers (most of whom come from rural areas of Cochabamba Department). However, he and other government ministers have not ventured out of "safe" pro-MAS zones during their campaign. President Morales caused uproar in Santa Cruz when he recently "inaugurated" an unfinished bridge on the major route to Brazil. The bridge was largely funded by a Korean donation, with significant department funds. The Santa Cruz media widely criticized Morales for his bravado in claiming credit for a bridge that was funded by Korean and departmental funds, consists of struts and no actual road, and probably won't be passable for a year. Civic Committee SecGen's Department by Department Analysis -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Civic committee officials and Prefect (governor) Ruben Costas are actively campaigning with daily events throughout Santa Cruz Department (state). Civic Committee General Secretary Mario Bruno told American Presence Officer that polls show an overwhelming victory for the "No" vote in Santa Cruz, but that he is worried about the opposition's goal of winning in five of Bolivia's nine departments. He said Tarija is a solid "No," and he was pleased by recent gains in Chuquisaca, for which Prefect Savina Cuellar, an opposition convert from the ruling Movement Toward Socialism party, could claim much credit. The campaign in Beni, however, got off to a late start and was not very robust, according to Bruno. His largest concern was Pando Department due to its small, 34,000 voter roll. Bruno said Pando would vote in favor of referendum with many opposition leaders remaining in Brazil to avoid arrest and the likely "Yes" votes from large numbers of military and police sent to keep the peace after the violent September 11 conflict. Bruno further said that although the Santa Cruz civic committee was meeting with international observers, they had little faith in those observers. Bruno predicted fraud would be minimal in urban areas where the observers would be located, but that fraud in pro-MAS rural areas would be almost impossible to detect and could skew the margin of victory. Bruno, prefecture officials, and the general public are all skeptical of the large number of "undecideds" in recent polls. They believe most people have made up their minds by now, and the "undecideds" really reflect an unwillingness to respond to pollsters in such a politically-charged atmosphere. Land Referendum's High Profile in Santa Cruz -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Though overshadowed by the constitutional question, of particular concern to the Santa Cruz agricultural community is a separate land-delimitation referendum also to be decided January 25. Voters will choose to limit land ownership to 5,000 or 10,000 hectares. President of the Santa Cruz Rancher's Association Guido Nayar urged voters to boycott the vote as a rejection of referendum's premise. He explained that in areas such as the Bolivian Chaco, cattle requires much more land than the government's base calculation, making redistribution proposals inherently unfair. Santa Cruz Opposition Focuses on Peaceful Dissent -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) While conventional wisdom supports a Morales win for the constitution, the margin of victory will influence how it is interpreted in implementing legislation and how fast it is implemented. Therefore, Santa Cruz opposition leaders will continue working hard for every vote. Most of the leaders EmbOff spoke with seem determined not to see a repeat of the violent acts of September 2008, now largely viewed as disastrous. As one prefecture insider said, "We lost more (the moral high ground) than we ever could have hoped to gain by taking over government institutions through force. We learned our lesson. From now on we will use only peaceful forms of resistance. We cannot overpower the MAS by using violent tactics. ... That is their forte, not ours." URS