BOLIVIA: EVO WARNS HE WILL RULE BY DECREE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000062 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: EVO WARNS HE WILL RULE BY DECREE REF: LA PAZ 6 Classified By: A/EcoPol Joe Relk for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (U) At the January 11 conference of the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, President Evo Morales called on his followers to perpetuate MAS power "forever." Morales assured his listeners that he was confident the new constitution would pass in the January 25 referendum, allowing for a December 2009 vote to elect national representatives, including his own re-election for a second five-year term. Morales then warned congress of the results if implementing legislation is not passed: "If some congressmen oppose and do not approve the laws, which are based on the people's vote, I will implement the constitution through decrees. For that purpose, the participation of social movements will be essential." Opposition Tarija Prefect Mario Cossio commented publicly that "Evo Morales has always violated the law, and now it wouldn't surprise me that he does the same." Regarding Morales' statement that the MAS would remain in power forever, Cossio said, "I believe that the President has made a very grave political confession, confirming the suspicions held by all Bolivians with regard to the new Constitution, which has been promoted with the political objective of making Evo Morales a president for life, a president forever." Former-MAS Chuquisaca Prefect Savina Cuellar announced that "we don't want this dictator." Sans Tribunal, No Adult Supervision of Evo Excess -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) In his thirty minute oration, Morales also highlighted to his MAS followers that he and the MAS had "recuperated the powers of the State." An earlier speaker, President of congress's lower house Edmundo Novillo, had announced that because the Constitutional Tribunal responded to the interests of "the oligarchy," the MAS-led lower house had "annulled" the court which rules on all constitutional matters, but which has been without quorum and unable to function since 2007. ¶3. (U) This is not the first time Morales has declared that he will circumvent the congress by use of decrees. In August 2007, Morales announced at a public meeting with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that "being subjected to the law is damaging us (the Morales government); though they may say our decrees are unconstitutional, that does not matter." (Note: in fact, claims of unconstitutionality effectively ceased to matter in December 2007, when Morales nullified the Constitutional Tribunal, leaving Bolivia with no court to decide constitutional questions. End note.) Evo's Change Agenda Can't Wait for Obstinate Congress -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Although "the game is still playing itself out," Senator Roger Pinto (Podemos, Pando) told PolOff January 13 that "at least" fellow opposition Senators Jose Villavicencio (UN, Pando) and Carlos Bohrt (Podemos, Oruro) were likely to vote for a MAS senate president candidate due to a combination of MAS bribes and threats. This would tip the vote against Pinto, who is the opposition front runner to take over the Senate presidency this month and was runner-up last year. "The MAS is trying everything to keep me out," said Pinto. He asserted the government "cannot afford to allow me to become a symbol" because of his continued outspoken challenges of the government's version of the September 11 Pando "massacre." He added that if the Morales administration "cannot get rid of me by the vote, they will get rid of me after the (constitutional) referendum" January 25, by "get(ting) rid of the Senate" by other means. Pinto suspected that Morales would use a likely referendum victory to justify closing congress "the day after" the referendum to "rule by decree." ¶5. (C) Pinto said Morales' MAS party is already injecting "ridiculous" interpretations of the constitution into a wide gamut of constitutional implementing legislation that "the Senate cannot in good conscious agree to." He said Senate rejection of MAS proposals provides a ready excuse for Morales to dismiss congress for "rejecting the will of the people." He thinks Morales is embracing a messiah complex in which he is the embodiment of the people and "all other (branches of) government, or even centers of power, need to be destroyed." Although other contacts have warned that Morales would close congress and move general elections up from December after the referendum, in large part to avoid an electoral-political fallout for the expected economic crisis in 2009 (reftel),Pinto is the first to suggest it will happen immediately. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) President Morales appears to be eliminating domestic centers of power that might challenge him, one by one until there are none. The President could merely be pressuring congress and not foreshadowing things to come, but we note that other threats we've previously dismissed as political bombast have come to pass: kicking out DEA, kicking out the Ambassador, surrounding congress with violent supporters, attacking the press and judiciary, and rounding up opposition leaders on "genocide" charges. Morales has a clearly established pattern of following through on threats. URS