BOLIVIA: NEW CONSTITUTION, NEW CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000220 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR ENVR BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: NEW CONSTITUTION, NEW CABINET REF: A. 08 LA PAZ 2150 ¶B. 08 LA PAZ 2567 ¶C. LA PAZ 163 ¶D. LA PAZ 176 Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Leveraging his now certified victory in the January 25 constitutional referendum, President Evo Morales held a massive "party" February 7 to promulgate the constitution and herald the arrival of the new "community socialist" revolution. The next day, Morales announced the results of a much-rumored cabinet reshuffle with few significant changes; three of twenty ministries will be led by self-identified indigenous officials. Indigenous and social groups had demanded greater executive branch representation and the removal of Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana; Morales gave them neither. Morales' actions, or lack thereof, indicate his confidence that for the indigenous and social groups, the MAS is the only game in town. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Results Are In: It's Party Time... - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) The National Electoral Court (CNE) announced official results February 2 for the January 25 constitutional referendum, certifying its passage with 61.4 percent of the vote. The CNE also confirmed just over 90 percent of eligible voters participated, a record (and seven points higher than the turnout for the August 2008 referendum). The official results showed 80.7 percent of voters supported a land limit of 5,000 hectares. - - - - - - - - - - - A Long-Expected Party - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (U) Beginning at noon February 7, President Evo Morales hosted a large gathering in El Alto, attended by the social organizations, unions, leftist political groups, and indigenous campesinos (rural farmers) that make up his political base. Originally forecast to include a crowd of up to 500,000 people, official news reports later put the figure at "dozens of thousands of people." Before signing the constitution and asking the crowd to swear to obey and defend the new text, Morales gave a speech in which he called the constitution the culmination of 180 years of protest by rural social groups against colonial masters of all stripes, whether earlier Spanish invaders or "neoliberals and imperialists" such as the United States. ¶4. (U) Morales cited the United States at least three times in his speech, noting his expulsion of Ambassador Goldberg, a supposed requirement in the past to "ask permission of the U.S." to fly into the Chimore (which Morales said he ended) (reftel A),and more generally the ongoing fight against the dominion of the United States as a de facto imperial power. He did not make any specific proposals regarding the US presence in Bolivia or about bilateral relations. Morales repeated his popular promise that "thanks to the new constitution, there would not be foreign military bases in Bolivia." (Note: the USG has never had a military base in Bolivia. End note.) Morales repeated, without proof, his charge that there were regular death threats against him, but said that now, with the passage of the new constitution, he could die fulfilled as his mission was accomplished. (Note: Although he did not specify any USG involvement in death threats this time, Morales has recently and repeatedly referred to supposed USG plots to kill him (Reftel C). End note.) ¶5. (U) Morales received his biggest cheer when he said corruption issues were part of the country's "colonial past," and that anyone who persisted in corruption would be thrown in jail, regardless of party affiliation. (Note: Morales fired close confidant and state hydrocarbons company YPFB President Santos Ramirez February 1 after he was implicated in a $450,000 kickback and murder scandal (Reftel D). End note.) ¶6. (U) Morales veered between taunting the opposition and calling on them to unite "for the good of the country." Recalling how legendary rebel leader Tupac Katari was drawn and quartered in 1781, Morales said he would never allow four prefects (governors) to divide the country in the same way. Signaling confidence in his party's continued dominance, Morales predicted his Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS) would win the upcoming December elections with over 70 percent of the vote. ¶7. (U) Regarding the requirement that all government officials speak at least one native language, Morales said this transition would happen "little by little." (Note: Morales is not fluent in any native language. End note.) - - - - - - - - - - - - Cabinet Almost Unchanged - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (U) Article 175 of the new constitution alters the responsibilities of the executive branch and requires passage of a new Executive Branch Law (LOPE) to update its structure. As part of this process, President Morales announced February 8 a restructuring of his administration. However, defying both rumors in the local press and requests from many of the social organizations that make up his political base, Morales kept his main circle of advisors completely intact, including Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana, Minister of the Government Alfredo Rada, Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca, and Defense Minister Walker San Miguel. Morales increased the total number of ministries from 17 to 20, adding newly formed ministries of Decentralization and Autonomies (led by Carlos Romero),Transparency and Anti-Corruption (Nardi Suxo),and Culture (Pablo Groux). Both Suxo and Groux led these efforts previously, when they were classified as vice-ministries. Romero led the Rural Development Ministry previously. Many indigenous and social groups had called for Quintana's ouster, particularly after his implication in a contraband scandal in Pando (reftel B), but despite Morales' tough talk on anti-corruption, Quintanta will remain a key advisor. ¶9. (U) Other than the addition of three new ministries, the cabinet remains practically unchanged. Morales ousted only one former minister, Saul Avalos, for his connection with the YPFB corruption scandal, added only two new ministers, and rotated a handful of other positions (see list below). Otherwise, any predictions of a major shuffle, including increased presence of indigenous members or of the social organizations that form the base of Morales' support, were proved wrong. Only three of the twenty ministries will be led by representatives of indigenous communities, and only one of the three, Julia Ramos (Rural Land Development),is new. Other indigenous representatives include Foreign Minister Choquehuanca and Justice Minister Celima Torrico. Director of the Confederation of Indigenous Villages in Eastern Bolivia (CIDOB) Adolfo Chavez complained that "one way or another, we are being excluded." Similarly, Director of the National Coordination for Change (Conalcam) Fidel Surco, said the Culture Ministry was supposed to represent the social movements, but instead it went to a member of the moderate MSM party (Movement Without Fear),a local La Paz MAS ally. ¶10. (U) The new cabinet is comprised of the following members (changes indicated in parentheses): -- Foreign Relations: David Choquehuanca -- Presidency: Juan Ramon Quintana -- Government: Alfredo Rada -- Defense: Walker San Miguel -- Justice: Celima Torrico -- Development Planning: Noel Aguirre -- Finance: Luis Arce -- Environment and Water: Rene Orellana (was Vice-Minister in this capacity) -- Productive Development: Susana Rivero -- Public Works: Walter Delgadillo (was Labor Minister) -- Rural Development and Lands: Julia Ramos (New) -- Hydrocarbons and Energy: Oscar Coca (was Public Works Minister) -- Mining and Metallurgy: Luis Alberto Echazu -- Labor and Employment: Calixto Chipana (New) -- Education: Roberto Aguilar -- Health and Sports: Ramiro Tapia -- Legal Defense of the State: Hector Arce -- Decentralization and Autonomy: Carlos Romero (was Agriculture Minister) -- Culture: Pablo Groux (was Vice-Minister in this capacity) -- Anti-Corruption: Nardi Suxo (was Vice-Minister in this capacity) - - - - Comment - - - - ¶11. (C) Between his promise that the MAS would win above 70 percent in the December elections and a lack of any dramatic gesture to social and indigenous leaders in the cabinet reshuffle, Morales appears to be flush with the success of passing the new constitution and does not seem to feel he is beholden to anyone. Although our contacts tell us opposition to the MAS is growing in the Altiplano and the opposition trumpets the worsening economy as his Achilles' heel, Morales seems to have decided to stay the course. Unless the opposition can unite around a single candidate, and one that draws support from the MAS, Morales is probably correct in believing that his political base has nowhere else to go. URS