MAS AIMS CONSTITUTION AT SENATE, MFA, "TRAITORS"

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000211 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR ETRD KDEM KTIA BL SUBJECT: MAS AIMS CONSTITUTION AT SENATE, MFA, "TRAITORS" Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Two weeks after the January 25 constitutional referendum, we are seeing signs that the Morales Administration plans to move its agenda forward aggressively after promulgating the new constitution. The MFA's Director of Bilateral Affairs told diplomats February 5 that the government would not "rule by decree" and close congress. But he added that the congress would have no authority to pass any legislation beyond what is required to convoke national elections in December and that Morales would issue a decree reorganizing the executive branch in the interim. MFA insiders tell us the government plans to review all international agreements and nullify those that conflict with the constitution. A MAS contact told us the government would use the constitution to arrest opposition leaders, noting that congressional immunities end February 6. We will be monitoring to see if such arrests come to pass. End Summary. MAS to Congress: Convoke Elections and Get Out of the Way -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) During an address to the diplomatic corps, the Ministry of Foreign Relation's Director of Bilateral Affairs, Jean Paul Guevara, said under the new constitution the Congress had one role: to pass legislation and modifications of the electoral code to enable general elections in December. Guevara said Congress would have until April 7 to finish this task, but did not elaborate what measures the government would take if it failed to do so. ¶3. (C) Guevara said the constitution accords 44 new rights to four groups (individuals, collective rights enjoyed individually, third generation Bolivians living overseas, and children/elderly) that do not require implementing legislation from Congress. All other rights and undefined articles requiring implementation legislation will be taken up by the new Plurinational Legislative Assembly (PLA) after it is elected in December. Guevara asserted that the existing Congress had no authority to pass any additional legislation. Ruling by Decree, by Default -------------- ¶4. (C) Guevara explained that President Evo Morales would issue a decree to reorganize the executive branch (Morales signed the decree February 8, septel). He said Morales would use the decree to govern until new laws could be drafted by the PLA and that "no other decrees would be necessary." Guevara claimed Morales would not decree early elections because the December date is explicitly mentioned in the constitution and the government did not want to undermine the constitution's authority. He said the government hoped to establish a precedent so that "others" would also respect the constitution. Despite the government's relative success (61 percent) with the constitutional referendum, Guevara said the government understood the need for further dialogue with the opposition, a nearly unanimous suggestion made by observer missions. Guevara: Military Reborn with New Constitution -------------- - ¶5. (C) Guevara also stressed that the military would now be acting under new constitution. (Comment: Although the changes to the military's role and responsibility remain largely unchanged in the new constitution, the GOB may seek to use its symbolic identification with the GOB to invoke a new loyalty to the Morales Administration. The GOB has often complained about the influence of the USG in the military and accused us of fomenting dissent within the ranks. Thus, we could get pulled into Morales' likely contention of a Bolivian military "rebirth" sans U.S. empire. This could, of course, also be combined with attacks on our Mission's MILGP and DAO, and announcements to restrict or expel the same. End Comment.) MFA to "Constitutionalized" all International Agreements -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) The MFA's Director of Policy Planning told PolOff February 4 that passage of the new constitution was "bad news" for international relations with "everyone except Iran and Venezuela." He said the constitution requires the MFA to review every bilateral and multilateral agreement to which Bolivia is a signatory. The MFA is in the process of hiring an "army" of new legal advisors to ascertain which agreements conflict with the constitution (Note: The constitution supersedes all international agreements and arbitration of international organizations. End Note.). The process could take "five years or more" and will start by nullifying any inconvenient trade agreements, particularly with the United Kingdom. The Director said the government wanted to "trash" any agreements that may hold it liable to pay compensation for nationalized companies, which "will mostly impact the Europeans." He said old agreements would remain in force pending a review. Bolivian negotiators will have to renegotiate agreements found to be out of compliance with the constitution or drop out of such agreements. ¶7. (C) British DCM Steve Townsend (strictly protect) told us during a meeting between the UN mission and Bolivian Ambassadors the second week of January, one of the Ambassadors asked the UN representatives, "What are you doing to ensure UN agreements comply with the new constitution?" According to Townsend, the UN was shocked at both the lack of understanding of its role in facilitating international agreements, the assumption that the UN would take actions based on an assumption that the constitution would pass, and an ignorance of Bolivia's obligations under international agreements. MFA Career Officers Fear Constitutionally Endorsed Purge -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) The Director of Policy Planning also told PolOff that MFA employees consider passage of the constitution the beginning of the end for careerists. He said the government has plans to strip out all protections for career officers from the Law of Foreign Service after the PLA convenes early in 2010. The MFA will then fire a large percentage of career officers and move in their "shadows," political appointees who have been job shadowing careerists for months or years. The government will also create a new Vice Ministry for Administration within the MFA under the auspices of reinventing the government within the parameters of the new constitution. He said this would needlessly bloat the already bloated MFA staffing "for no reason" other than to open spoils for political supporters of the government (many left jobless after the dissolution of the Constitutional Assembly). Going After "Traitors" -------------- ¶9. (C) The government is already invoking the constitution to take revenge on opponents. Vice Minister of Social Movements Sasha Llorenti explained, in a letter to Vice President Garcia Linera, that Article 124 of the new constitution would be used to "judge as traitors" all Bolivians involved in the governments of Gonzalo "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada and Victor Hugo Cardenas. Government officials including President Morales have been attacking Cardenas lately for his Goni ties, accusing him of somehow being involved in the 2003 violence during Goni's second administration, of which Cardenas was not a part. (Comment: As an indigenous alternative to Evo, Cardenas is a threat to Morales in the next presidential election. The government's sudden interest in demonizing Cardenas is likely the result of the effectiveness of his recent campaign to challenge Morales' indigenous credentials and his recent rise to 16 percent in the polls. End Comment.) ¶10. (C) MAS-affiliated social groups from Cardenas hometown on Lake Titicaca announced they would seize his property as punishment for voting for the "no," although his campaign manager told us these are just threats at the moment. Separately, member of a MAS-aligned wing of social group CONOMAQ threatened dissident indigenous leader Juan Choque Apaza and used the opportunity to announce a zero tolerance policy for "no" voters (due to public voting in many rural areas of Bolivia, they probably do have a good idea who voted no). They argued that "no" voters essentially voted against the government, and, therefore, should not have access to government funded programs, such a Juancito Pinto (a stipend to parents of child to encourage school attendance) and Renta Dignidad (a pension for the elderly). The group also said those who voted for 10,000 hectare limits on land holdings, instead of 5,000 hectares, should not be entitled to any government distributed land. ¶11. (C) MAS Deputy Ana Lucia Reis (strictly protect) told us that the government would use the constitution as an excuse to arrest opposition-aligned leaders on trumped up charges of "treason." She added the government would no longer recognize congressional immunities after the constitution's first official day in force, February 6, because immunities are not included in the new constitution. Reis said the first potential victim of the change will be opposition Senator Jose Villavicencio (UN, Pando),whom the government will charge with murder and other crimes associated with September 11 violence in Pando. Reis said the government would also eventually pass the Investigation of Fortunes Law, long blocked by the opposition-controlled senate, which would essentially open up wealthy opposition-aligned Bolivians to witch hunt investigations. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Our MAS contacts continually told us the many contradictions and unrealistic articles of the constitution "will all be worked out in implementing legislation." With the exception of legislation needed to convoke December elections, the government is already kicking the can down the road for all constitutional enabling legislation to 2010. The MFA's Director of Policy Planning told us it would take 20 to 30 years to implement the constitution and that the government would inevitably realize it would have to change the constitution "because it cannot guarantee things like water, food, and employment." With a powerless Congress and decimated judiciary, Morales is setting the groundwork to rule by default until those branches can be filled with more malleable, MAS-friendly officials. End Comment. URS