CAMPAIGN UPDATE: POTOSI AND CHUQUISACA GO TO THE MAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001567 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/25 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM KDEM BL SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN UPDATE: POTOSI AND CHUQUISACA GO TO THE MAS CLASSIFIED BY: John S. Creamer, Charge, State, EXEC; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The southern highland department of Potosi will vote heavily in favor of President Evo Morales and his Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party in December's elections. His support is solid in rural areas, as well as in the periphery of Potosi city, populated by newcomers from the countryside. Neighboring Chuquisaca department is more divided, with strong anti-government sentiment in the city of Sucre, and pro-MAS voters in the countryside. End Summary. Potosi Prefect Supports Morales ¶2. (C) In a November 18 meeting, the Prefect (Governor) of Potosi Department, Mario Virreira told us that President Morales has very strong popular support in the countryside, and will win Potosi in December. Polls taken in mid-November show Morales winning 63% of the vote. Virreira, a member of the MAS, said he is a strong supporter of Morales, and joined the party because it represents the poor and indigenous sectors of Bolivian society. He hinted that he will be given a "national position" in the Morales administration after the elections. If not, he will run for prefect again, he said. ¶3. (C) Virreira, who studied in the U.S. on a Fulbright Scholarship, said he hopes relations between the GOB and the USG will improve. He asked for more USAID assistance for Potosi, and claimed rural electrification and better regulation of mining licenses as the major achievements of his term. Virreira described Potosi and Bolivia as a whole as undergoing fundamental social changes, with power moving away from the existing elite political classes. Bishop of Potosi Sees MAS Strength in Countryside. ¶4. (C) Ricardo Centellas, the Bishop of Potosi, noted the MAS is not only strong in the countryside of Potosi and neighboring Chuquisaca department, but also in the periphery of cities where there has been an influx of people from the countryside (mid-November polling data shows Morales winning Chuquisaca with 38% of the vote). He described relations between the Church and the MAS in Potosi as good, in contrast to many other parts of Bolivia. Centellas believes the nationwide tension between the Catholic Church and the MAS began when Morales asked Cardinal Terrazas to speak against the autonomy vote in Santa Cruz in 2008, and the Cardinal refused to do. Drugs Moving Across Border to Chile ¶5. (C) Centellas said drugs are being moved into Chile from the southwestern part of Potosi, including the provinces of South Lipez and North Lipez, with the towns of Uyuni and San Pedro de Quemez being used as transit points. He has visited smugglers in jail, who told him they are paid about one thousand dollars to carry drugs across the border, often by foot. Virreira also noted that drug smuggling across Potosi into Chile has been increasing, and that the drugs are moved by car. Separately, local businessmen said that because Potosi is dependent on mining, when the price of minerals go down workers become involved in coca growing and drug trafficking. Political Analyst Sees Challenges to MAS ¶6. (C) Potosi journalist and political analyst Mario Caro said that, while the MAS has gained strength in the department, it has also raised expectations and will need to deliver on its promises to maintain its popularity. The MAS suffers from increasing corruption, and a growing membership that is making demands on a limited "pie" of positions and benefits. Caro, who knew Morales when he was a cocalero in the Chapare region of Cochabamba Department, said that Morales at that time had only a limited education and knowledge of politics and world affairs, but had been schooled over the last four years by Vice President Garcia Linares. Sucre Retains Anti-Morales Sentiments ¶7. (C) Local hotel owner and honorary consul Luis Rodriguez told us anti-Morales sentiments are still strong in the city of Sucre, a result of politically-related bloodshed in previous years and the MAS' intent to move national judicial power from Sucre to La Paz. This antipathy was on display at the opening ceremony of the Bolivarian Games, an international sporting event, where Morales was whistled down by the crowd and left before speaking. Separately, opposition mayor Aydee Nava was pushed out of her job the week of November 16 on corruption charges dating from the 1990s, and replaced by pro-MAS Hugo Loayza. ¶8. (C) Comment: The movement of people from the countryside to the town of El Alto, bordering La Paz, helped secure the MAS' rise to power. Similarly, the movement of people from the countryside to the periphery of other Bolivian cities has given the MAS a strong base in urban areas, including Potosi city and Sucre. Creamer