BOLIVIAN FM ON BILATERAL AGREEMENT, UNGA, ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001557 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/19 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNGA BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIAN FM ON BILATERAL AGREEMENT, UNGA, ELECTIONS CLASSIFIED BY: William Mozdzierz, Political Counselor, State, POL/ECON; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Bolivian FM Choquehuanca reported that the GOB now hopes to be able to give final approval to the bilateral framework agreement after the December 6 general elections here, with the aim of hosting a signing ceremony in La Paz before Christmas. Choquehuanca heard our message on the UNGA human rights resolutions on Iran, Burma and North Korea, but offered no substantive response. He explained that GOB attendance at the Copenhagen climate summit now depends on what can be agreed with Bolivia's ALBA allies. Choquehuanca predicted that President Morales will be re-elected with 65 percent of the vote, but that his MAS party's goal of a two-thirds majority in parliament remains uncertain. End summary. ¶2. (C) Bolivian Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca explained to the Charge November 18 that the GOB is still reviewing the draft bilateral framework agreement text, noting that the ongoing election campaign has prevented President Evo Morales from giving it his full attention and that the GOB is waiting for final language from us on trade in any case. Choquehuanca lamented that the agreement will not be ready for signature before the December 6 general elections (joking that it could have helped Morales's MAS party with some voters),but indicated that the GOB would give final approval immediately after the election. This would give time to work out any last-minute changes and hold a signing ceremony in La Paz before Christmas. The Charge responded that this timetable could work for us, reporting that we hoped to provide the GOB with trade language the following week. Choquehuanca noted that slippage beyond December 25 could lead to lengthy delays given expected cabinet changes and the GOB's focus on the January 22 inauguration (Choquehuanca indicated that he still hoped to step down as foreign minister after the elections, but was not certain that he would do so in the end). ¶3. (C) The Charge raised reftel points on the UNGA resolutions on Iran, Burma and North Korea, following up on our delivery of those points via diplomatic note the previous week. The Charge urged the GOB to at least abstain on the no-action motions and the resolutions themselves, underscoring that the human rights situation in Iran has deteriorated sharply since the June elections. Choquehuanca listened to our approach, but did not respond. He reported frustration that Iranian President Ahmadinejad 's upcoming visit to La Paz had rescheduled by the Iranians; the Iranian president will now arrive either November 23 or 24. ¶4. (C) Choquehuanca said that the GOB is rethinking whether Morales and he will travel to Copenhagen for the UN COP-15 climate change meeting. He indicated that they will decide based on what is agreed among fellow ALBA members at their December 14-15 summit in Havana (the original plan had been for the ALBA leaders to go as a group to Copenhagen, but Choquehuanca allowed that it is possible that not even he will attend). ¶5. (C) The foreign minister acknowledged that he is spending a great deal of time on the electoral campaign, reflecting his own affinity for politics over foreign policy. Choquehuanca predicted that Morales will win 65 percent of the vote (he currently polls slightly below that figure; Choquehuanca suggested that Morales's rural support is underrepresented in those surveys),but remains uncertain that the MAS will win a two-thirds majority in the Senate. He observed whether the MAS's goal of a two-thirds majority is only reachable because of the opposition's failure to unite. ¶6. (C) The Charge expressed support to Choquehuanca for the GOB's request to have the UNODC upgrade its La Paz office, noting the critical role it could play in improving counter-narcotics cooperation. Choquehuanca indicated that GOB welcomes the proposed counter-narcotics donors conference, but shares our skepticism that a successful event can be arranged as early as January. The Charge informed Choquehuanca that we cannot meet the GOB's proposed conditions to finish our justice center and municipal strengthening programs and that we will therefore close them down by November 25. The Charge stressed that we would consider the GOB's proposals for future projects, especially once we concluded the framework agreement. Choquehuanca listened, but did not react. Creamer