CAMPAIGN UPDATE: MAS GAINS MOMENTUM IN COCHABAMBA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001553 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/18 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM KDEM BL SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN UPDATE: MAS GAINS MOMENTUM IN COCHABAMBA CLASSIFIED BY: Mozdzierz, William, Counselor Eco-Pol; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party of President Evo Morales is likely to do well in the December 6 elections in Cochabamba Department, a highland area southeast of La Paz that includes the coca-growing Chapare region. This reflects its strength in rural areas, an alliance with cocaleros, significant campaign spending, and a shift of some middle-class voters to the MAS. Separately, Speaker of the Lower House and MAS Congressman from Cochabamba Edmundo Novillo told us that a new counternarcotics strategy is needed, and hoped that USG - GOB talks on a framework agreement will lead to improved bilateral ties. ¶2. (SBU) A mid-November poll predicted Morales will win almost 68% of the vote in Cochabamba Department, with Reyes Villa gaining 12% and Samuel Doria Medina with 4.6% of the vote. Compared with October polling data, Morales has gained between eight and ten percentage points in one month. End Summary. MAS Speaker of the House on Politics, Narcotics ¶3. (C) Edmundo Novillo, a MAS Congressman from Cochabamba and President (Speaker) of the Lower House, told us November 10 that Bolivia is going through a key political moment, with the opposition wasting away and the MAS gaining influence. The country is politically stable, he judges, but the question of regional autonomy remains unsettled and could reemerge to upset existing balances. The April local and regional elections will be particularly important and may bring a new group of leaders to office. Novillo hopes to be the MAS candidate for Prefect of Cochabamba in April. ¶4. (C) Novillo stated that narcotrafficking is a growing problem, including the entry of foreign gangs into the country. The existing counternarcotics strategy needs to be revised, he argued, and a new strategy formulated, with a goal of "zero narcotrafficking." Novillo maintained that the alternative livelihood programs in the Chapare region of eastern Cochabamba have not been successful, and that a broader, integrated economic development approach needs to be tried. Poverty and the lack of jobs are driving the expansion of coca cultivation in the region, he said. ¶5. (C) Novillo described the cocaleros as predominantly from the Aymara and Quechua ethnic groups, while the mestizo middle class are more involved in processing and refining the product. The MAS, with its connection to the cocaleros, has the unique ability to deal with the cocaleros, and could make an impact on drug production as a result. He noted tensions between the cocaleros of the Yungas region and those of the Chapare, which he ascribed to differences in legal coca cultivation limits. Novillo agreed the GOB needs to halt the recent annual increases in coca cultivation, and to begin to reduce the hectares under cultivation. He also said Bolivia needs to improve its ties with the U.S., and voiced support for Foreign Minister Choquehuanca's effort to negotiate a framework agreement with us. MAS Prefect Unlikely to Return ¶6. (C) Jorge Ledezma, the MAS Prefect of Cochabamba, declined to tell us if he will run again for prefect, saying that President Morales will name the MAS candidate. Other contacts said Ledezma will not be the MAS candidate, in part due to allegations of corruption and a reputation for inefficiency. Ledezma judges that Morales will win Cochabamba Department in the December elections, getting 60% of the total vote, including as much as 85% of the rural vote and 50% of the urban vote. Ledezma attributed the MAS's growing influence to its inclusion of indigenous communities. He claimed that the airport to be built in the eastern Cochabamba town of Chimore would be the largest in Bolivia. Opposition Faces Challenges ¶7. (C) Bernardo Gutierrez, Senate candidate for the opposition "Convergencia" party (of presidential candidate Manfred Reyes Villa) in Cochabamba, told us November 9 he expects to win easily. Still, he complained that the MAS has access to much greater campaign resources than opposition parties and suggested that some people in Cochabamba are reluctant to join the opposition out of fear of the MAS. Gutierrez accused the Morales administration of using the national statistical bureau to falsify macroeconomic data as part of its campaign plan. He said the decline of the eastern "Media Luna" opposition movement was due in part to its leaders acting only in their narrow personal interests. Separately, Cochabamba Mayor Gonzalo Terceros, with his own local political party, told us he will run for reelection in April. Ideology aside, Terceros said the election will hinge on the provision of services, such as improving the municipal water service. Many believe Cochabamba's "water war" in 2000 - which saw popular unrest produce the revocation of the privatization of water in the city - helped fuel the rise of the MAS. ¶8. (C) Congressional candidate (and former IV recipient) Ricardo Pol, allied with opposition presidential candidate Samuel Doria Medina, echoed Gutierrez, saying his biggest concerns are the considerable funds the MAS is bringing to the campaign and the reluctance of local people to align with the opposition out of fear of reprisals by the MAS. Pol believes the Morales administration is making an effort to improve relations with the USG as an election move, to attract middle-class voters and "intellectuals." Morales has recently attended dinners with Cochabamba business leaders as part of this outreach. Local Businessmen Look to MAS ¶9. (C) Local business leaders told us that, despite previous reservations, they are increasingly willing to work with the MAS to facilitate their businesses. They noted that the suspension of the Andean Trade Preference and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) with Bolivia has had a direct impact on their ability to export to the U.S., adding that trade with Brazil is often hampered by extensive paperwork that is often delayed. ALBA markets are too small to substitute for U.S. markets, they said, which may eventually lead the GOB to a softer stance towards the USG. An Academic's Perspective ¶10. (C) Roberto Laserna, from the Cochabamba think tank "Fundacion Milenio," opined that political-economic development in Bolivia is now moving in reverse, with the state returning to the center of economic and commercial decision making after years of market-based reforms. As a result, it will be easier to manipulate political systems for economic gain, he said, and the economy will increasingly depend on natural resources. As the MAS gains influence over more sectors of the economy, political and business groups will seek to associate with it to gain access to these economic sectors. Laserna predicted more professionals will join the ranks of the MAS. He faulted the MAS for being weak at planning and management, which in turn will cause many of their large-scale projects to founder. To overcome this weakness, he expects them to consolidate their control of the legislative and judicial branches. Comment: ¶11. (C) Opposition politicians are increasingly forming smaller parties as vehicles for their campaigns, reflecting the fragmentation of the previous political structure and the major opposition parties. The opposition's lack of a national political vision also limits its capacity to expand its support. The opposition in Cochabamba, as elsewhere in Bolivia, remains unable to challenge President Morale's popularity, the MAS's campaign funding, and its country-wide reach. Creamer