SANTA CRUZ GOVERNOR REMAINS IN OPPOSITION, WILL RUN AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001551 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/18 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR BL SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ GOVERNOR REMAINS IN OPPOSITION, WILL RUN AGAIN CLASSIFIED BY: Mozdzierz,William, Political Officer, DOS, ECOPOL; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Santa Cruz Prefect (Governor) and leading opposition figure Ruben Costas told us November 6 that he will run again for prefect in April under the banner of his recently-established "Verde" party. Costas described public security in Santa Cruz as worsening, prompting the national government to temporarily deploy military police the week of November 2 to support the police. Costas made clear he will remain vocal in his opposition to the Morales administration, but faces a challenge in the April elections from pro-autonomy activist Juan Carlos Urenda, and it is unclear how Costas will mend growing divisions among those in Santa Cruz who advocate a more conciliatory approach towards the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party and those who advocate confrontation. End Summary. Santa Cruz Governor Forms Party, Will Run Again ¶2. (C) Santa Cruz Prefect (Governor) Ruben Costas, in office since 2005, told us he will run again for prefect in April as the candidate of his recently-established local "Verde" party. Costas described the progress his administration has made, particularly in electricity and roads, as sustaining his popularity in the department (his approval ratings top 60%, he claimed),and he fully expects to be re-elected. Costas made clear he remains in opposition to the government, criticizing various GOB policies, particularly what he perceives as lack of action on counternarcotics. He denounced Morales administration attacks accusing him of "separatism" as inaccurate and propaganda, and confided that he is concerned for his personal safety. ¶3. (C) Costas said he is not actively supporting any presidential candidate, but criticized leading opposition candidate Manfred Reyes Villa as a "poor choice" to run for president. Costas praised Santa Cruz Senator Oscar Ortiz (and current Senate leader) as an intelligent and able politician, but said he believes Ortiz will lose his seat in the December elections. Morales will not win a majority of votes in Santa Cruz, he said. ¶4. (C) Costas described the current political changes in Bolivia as fundamental, with a basic reordering of the political power structures underway. These changes were inevitable, he said, given the corruption and inefficiencies of previous governments and political parties. The traditional political parties had not sufficiently incorporated the poor and rural people of Bolivia into the country's political or economic mainstream or provided them adequate development and services. Costas Says Security Worsening ¶5. (C) Costas complained that Santa Cruz is becoming increasingly insecure, due to the insufficient number of police officers (only 4,000 versus 12,000 in La Paz, he said),as well as the increase in drug trafficking and the influx of foreign criminal groups (Note: During the week of November 2, the national government deployed soldiers and military police in Santa Cruz city to patrol the streets in support of the police). Costas claimed that music concerts by big-name international music acts in Santa Cruz, as well as local gambling casinos, are being used to launder drug money. Cochabamba and Santa-Cruz-based corporate lawyer Cayo Salinas told us the same on November 10. Local Political Analyst Sees Morales Getting One-Third of Vote ¶6. (C) Local political analyst Manfredo Bravo said that, while Reyes Villa is gaining strength in Santa Cruz, he still expects Morales to get 32 to 34% of the Santa Cruz votes in December, and for MAS to gain at least one Senate seat from the Santa Cruz department. Bravo suggested that the tactics used by some Santa Cruz opposition groups in previous years, including street demonstrations and takeovers of government offices, had helped MAS by giving the appearance that these groups were anti-democratic. ¶7. (C) Comment: Costas says he will continue in opposition to the MAS and Morales, but it appears likely that he will do so with many fewer allies, as the opposition "Media Luna" of eastern Bolivian departments has waned (reftels). He told us he will expand his "Verde" party from having only a Santa Cruz base to being a national party, but did not outline any larger political agenda, or national vision. Costa also faces a challenge from pro-autonomy activist Juan Carlos Urenda in the April elections, and it is unclear how he will mend growing divisions among those in Santa Cruz who support a more conciliatory approach towards the MAS and those who advocate confrontation. Creamer