BOLIVIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM SITREP #3 1730

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000106

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM SITREP #3 1730
EST

January 25, 2008

SITUATION REPORT: This is the last of three situation reports
planned today.

And the Winner Is...
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1. (U) Although initial official result estimates will not be
available until after 8 pm local (7 pm Eastern),exit polls
suggest that the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) constitution
has been approved by a majority of voters.


2. (U) Leading pollsters Ipsos-Apoyo and Mori Group announced
national estimates of 61 percent in favor of the new
constitution and 39 percent opposed shortly after polls
closed (with a 3 to 4 percent margin of error). Although
some media and pollsters predicted the opposition's no
campaign had won more individual departments (including
Chuquisaca) than the government, Ipsos and Mori predicted no
clear winner for individual department votes, with four
departments voting for the new constitution, four against,
and Chuquisaca at a dead heat. Ipsos and Mori most recent
estimates as of 6:30 pm:
--La Paz: 77 percent yes, 23 percent no
--Potosi: 77 percent yes, 23 percent no
--Oruro: 71 percent yes, 29 percent no
--Cochabamba: 63 percent yes, 37 percent no
--Chuquisaca: 50 percent yes, 50 percent no
--Pando: 43 percent yes, 57 percent no
--Tarija: 44 percent yes, 56 percent no
--Santa Cruz: 32 percent yes, 68 percent no
--Beni: 32 percent yes, 68 percent no

"Normality" Prevails with Mostly Peaceful Referendum
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3. (U) Bolivia's 22,049 voting stations closed between 4 pm
and 6 pm local time, either having served all registered
voters or having been open for eight hours. Official result
estimates will begin to be released after 8 pm Bolivia time
(7 pm EST). Full official results will not be available
until later in the week. Leading daily La Razon estimated
that 3.8 million Bolivians had voted. National Electoral
Court (CNE) President Jose Luis Exeni assured that the
referendum transpired with "normality" and that the results
were "totally reliable." OAS Observer Mission Chief Raul
Lago said that as of mid-day he had received no reports of
irregularities.


4. (U) Isolated reports of confrontations at rural polling
stations have been reported at Achacachi (La Paz Department),
San Miguel de Velasco (Chaco Region of Tarija Department),
Tarabuco (Chuquisaca Department),and Valesco (Santa Cruz
Department). Minister of Government Alfredo Rada called
these "isolated incidents" of proponents of either the "no"
or "yes" campaigns bullying supporters of the other camp.
Private media reports that these are all cases of
pro-government intimidation, although there are also reports
of voter intimidation in and around the Santa Cruz capital by
pro-opposition youth (Santa Cruz Youth Union). Rada also
stated that some private media were campaigning for the "no"
vote in violation of the law. Opposition-aligned Chuquisaca
Prefect Savina Cuellar was insulted and accused of being a
traitor while casting her vote in rural Chuquisaca.

Spin Zone
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5. (U) Many analysts are reporting the referendum will only
deepen Bolivia's already deeply polarized citizenry. Both
sides continued to espouse confidence until the end, although
the opposition typically focused on the margins and votes of
individual departments. Both President Morales and Vice
President Alvaro Garcia Linera predicted the opposition would
attempt to justify its expected loss with the "excuse of

fraud." Government media stressed President Morales'
contention that he will "respect the results, whatever they
may be," although the results were never really in doubt.
Very few analysts or opposition leaders predicted a surprise
no win. One exception was Santa Cruz's opposition Department
Prefect (state governor) Ruben Costas, who claimed he was
confident the "no" would triumph in a "beautiful day for all
Bolivians." The government's ABI Web site has been covering
a wide variety of public comments from both government and
opposition leaders made in conjunction with their votes,
highlighting their endorsement of the referendum by
participating.


6. (U) Garcia Linera discounted the importance of vote totals
in individual departments and emphasized that the government
will respect the overall results of the referendum and
enforce it: "Bolivians will comply with what the people
decide on a national level, because the (referendum) convoked
by congress is at a national level, not at a neighborhood
level or only for show." State news agency ABI clarified
that Garcia Linera's statements were directed at Santa Cruz
Civic committee president Branco Marinkovic and "other
leaders and radical prefects of the opposition who described
the election as 'fraud' and cast doubt on the Bolivians'
vote."

Stay Tuned
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7. (U) Official CNE results are not expected until February
20, although the CNE beat its self-imposed deadline in the
August 10 recall referendum. Post will report more detailed
results in the days to follow.
URS