BOLIVIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM SITREP #3 1730

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000106 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM SITREP #3 1730 EST January 25, 2008 SITUATION REPORT: This is the last of three situation reports planned today. And the Winner Is... -------------- ¶1. (U) Although initial official result estimates will not be available until after 8 pm local (7 pm Eastern),exit polls suggest that the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) constitution has been approved by a majority of voters. ¶2. (U) Leading pollsters Ipsos-Apoyo and Mori Group announced national estimates of 61 percent in favor of the new constitution and 39 percent opposed shortly after polls closed (with a 3 to 4 percent margin of error). Although some media and pollsters predicted the opposition's no campaign had won more individual departments (including Chuquisaca) than the government, Ipsos and Mori predicted no clear winner for individual department votes, with four departments voting for the new constitution, four against, and Chuquisaca at a dead heat. Ipsos and Mori most recent estimates as of 6:30 pm: --La Paz: 77 percent yes, 23 percent no --Potosi: 77 percent yes, 23 percent no --Oruro: 71 percent yes, 29 percent no --Cochabamba: 63 percent yes, 37 percent no --Chuquisaca: 50 percent yes, 50 percent no --Pando: 43 percent yes, 57 percent no --Tarija: 44 percent yes, 56 percent no --Santa Cruz: 32 percent yes, 68 percent no --Beni: 32 percent yes, 68 percent no "Normality" Prevails with Mostly Peaceful Referendum -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) Bolivia's 22,049 voting stations closed between 4 pm and 6 pm local time, either having served all registered voters or having been open for eight hours. Official result estimates will begin to be released after 8 pm Bolivia time (7 pm EST). Full official results will not be available until later in the week. Leading daily La Razon estimated that 3.8 million Bolivians had voted. National Electoral Court (CNE) President Jose Luis Exeni assured that the referendum transpired with "normality" and that the results were "totally reliable." OAS Observer Mission Chief Raul Lago said that as of mid-day he had received no reports of irregularities. ¶4. (U) Isolated reports of confrontations at rural polling stations have been reported at Achacachi (La Paz Department), San Miguel de Velasco (Chaco Region of Tarija Department), Tarabuco (Chuquisaca Department),and Valesco (Santa Cruz Department). Minister of Government Alfredo Rada called these "isolated incidents" of proponents of either the "no" or "yes" campaigns bullying supporters of the other camp. Private media reports that these are all cases of pro-government intimidation, although there are also reports of voter intimidation in and around the Santa Cruz capital by pro-opposition youth (Santa Cruz Youth Union). Rada also stated that some private media were campaigning for the "no" vote in violation of the law. Opposition-aligned Chuquisaca Prefect Savina Cuellar was insulted and accused of being a traitor while casting her vote in rural Chuquisaca. Spin Zone -------------- ¶5. (U) Many analysts are reporting the referendum will only deepen Bolivia's already deeply polarized citizenry. Both sides continued to espouse confidence until the end, although the opposition typically focused on the margins and votes of individual departments. Both President Morales and Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera predicted the opposition would attempt to justify its expected loss with the "excuse of fraud." Government media stressed President Morales' contention that he will "respect the results, whatever they may be," although the results were never really in doubt. Very few analysts or opposition leaders predicted a surprise no win. One exception was Santa Cruz's opposition Department Prefect (state governor) Ruben Costas, who claimed he was confident the "no" would triumph in a "beautiful day for all Bolivians." The government's ABI Web site has been covering a wide variety of public comments from both government and opposition leaders made in conjunction with their votes, highlighting their endorsement of the referendum by participating. ¶6. (U) Garcia Linera discounted the importance of vote totals in individual departments and emphasized that the government will respect the overall results of the referendum and enforce it: "Bolivians will comply with what the people decide on a national level, because the (referendum) convoked by congress is at a national level, not at a neighborhood level or only for show." State news agency ABI clarified that Garcia Linera's statements were directed at Santa Cruz Civic committee president Branco Marinkovic and "other leaders and radical prefects of the opposition who described the election as 'fraud' and cast doubt on the Bolivians' vote." Stay Tuned -------------- ¶7. (U) Official CNE results are not expected until February 20, although the CNE beat its self-imposed deadline in the August 10 recall referendum. Post will report more detailed results in the days to follow. URS