BOLIVIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM SITREP 1, 1130

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000104 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM SITREP 1, 1130 EST January 25, 2008 SITUATION REPORT: This is the first of three situation reports planned today. No Violence Reported - - - - - - - - - - - ¶1. (U) Voting in the constitutional referendum has begun with no reports of violence thus far. Reports of minor procedural irregularities include the fact that a major polling station had closed with no notice: the president of the National Electoral Court himself expected to vote at the closed station, but all voters were accommodated in another location. ¶2. (U) Despite the current lack of reported incidents, police seem to be using their discretion in enforcing voting-security regulations. Whereas in Bolivia it is illegal to consume alcohol or drive on the day of an election, television news has broadcast scenes of public drinking and vehicles without the proper permission to drive on the roads. Rules against campaigning immediately before an election have also been ignored, with President Morales making a number of public statements in favor of the "Si" vote during the last twenty-four hours. Opposition "No" campaign workers are also still displaying their campaign material in some areas. Initial Results: Prisoners Support Constitution - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3.(U) Because of their small and stationary populations, prisons are often the first polling locations to report that their entire rolls have voted and the stations have closed. Thus far, the prison population seems to be solidly supporting President Morales' new constitution. Morales Already Looking Ahead - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) Morales has announced that, if the constitution passes the referendum, he will promulgate a decree to immediately implement the entire constitution. He has also convoked an extended cabinet to meet on Tuesday, January 27, saying that as well as the usual cabinet ministers, vice ministers, state company executives and other Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) leaders will participate. ¶5. (U) Polls suggest that the constitution will pass, although perhaps by a smaller margin than the over 60 percent that Morales has called for. Most polls suggest that countrywide, the constitution will pass with a majority in the mid-50-percent range. It seems likely that at least four and possibly five departments will have majorities against the constitution (Pando is still in question, since the large number of military personnel still posted to the opposition department are likely to vote in favor of the constitution.) Nevertheless, Vice President Garcia Linera emphasized on January 24 that regardless of results in individual departments, a countrywide "Yes" vote will pass the constitution. Fraud Possibilities - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (U) Although opposition observers are still highlighting inconsistencies in the voter rolls (such as a large increase in registered voters in pro-Morales areas while opposition areas have lost voters),the central government seems inclined to make this a relatively clean vote--after all, almost all polls show the constitution passing without fraud. Nevertheless, the usual inconsistencies are likely: communities in the altiplano will likely vote publicly and in unison, press accounts have already discovered one "dead man voting", and 350 observers throughout a country with 20,040 voting stations are clearly incapable of witnessing all potential irregularities. URS