SUPREME COURT RESTORES SHAHBAZ SHARIF AS PUNJAB CHIEF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAHORE 000068 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV PTER PK SUBJECT: SUPREME COURT RESTORES SHAHBAZ SHARIF AS PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER CLASSIFIED BY: Bryan Hunt, Principal Officer, Consulate Lahore, U.S. Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary:The Supreme Court March 31 issued a stay order against its February 25 decision to disqualify Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif from holding public office. The immediate impact of this decision was to restore the status quo and temporarily restore Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister. It did not/not settle the issue of Sharifs' disqualification; the Court has yet to rule on the petition submitted by the government on the original disqualification ruling. The Sharifs' Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) Speaker of the Provincial Assembly subsequently prorogued the assembly indefinitely. Both the PML-N and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) remain divided about whether to maintain their coalition at the provincial level or form a PML-N government with votes from renegade Pakistan Muslim League (PML) members. End Summary. - - - Supreme Court Reinstates Shahbaz Sharif - - - ¶2. (SBU) The Supreme Court March 31 issued a stay order against its February 25 decision to disqualify from public office both Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif. The immediate impact of the stay order was to return to the status quo; this means the reinstatement of PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister of Punjab. "We direct that till final disposal of the main petitions under review, the operation of February 25, 2009, shall remain suspended and the petitioner (Shahbaz Sharif) shall assume the chief minister office with immediate effect," Justice Tassaduq Hussain Jillani, head of the five-member bench, ruled. This stay order does not/not settle the issue of the Sharifs' eligibility; the Court has just begun deliberations on the government's petition for a review of the original February 25 decision. ¶3. (SBU) Speaker of the Provincial Assembly Rana Aftab prorogued indefinitely the April 1 session that President Asif Zardari had earlier called when he declared an end to governor's rule on March 28. - - - PML-N Ponders PPP or PML Alliance - - - ¶4. (C) Zain Qadri, PML-N Member of the Provincial Assembly (MPA) and political advisor to Shahbaz Sharif, told poloff in a March 31 meeting that the PML-N now faces a decision of whether the party will revive its previous coalition with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) or attempt to establish a provincial government on its own. Although he acknowledged that some in the PML-N felt that the tie-up with the PPP would help stability, Qadri believed that Shahbaz should strike out on his own. "We don't want to be blamed for what happens at the center, but we can take responsibility for what happens in the province," he insisted. ¶5. (C) If the PML-N decides to jettison the PPP, he speculated, Shahbaz would dissolve the cabinet when the Assembly next meets. Qadri estimated that the forward bloc, or the portion of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) that would support the PML-N in government, has reached 48 MPAs. As a majority of the PML, he explained, those MPAs siding with Shahbaz Sharif would not face disqualification for ignoring party instructions. The PML would effectively dissolve, he speculated. In another attempt to hold his party together, PML President Chaudhry Shujaat indicated April 1 that this party would play a role as the "real" opposition. ¶6. (C) Qadri noted that Nawaz Sharif has not yet made his preference for PPP or PML known. However, he believed, Shahbaz has leaned towards a forward bloc solution. - - - PPP Waits for Zardari's Decision - - - ¶7. (C) President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani and PPP Spokesperson Fawzia Wahab have all stated publicly that the PPP now will sit in opposition in Punjab. In effect, the PPP is challenging the ability of the PML-N to form a government without them. PPP insider Abdul Qadir Shaheen described to Principal Officer April 1 that the party remains divided on LAHORE 00000068 002 OF 002 rejoining the PML-N in a coalition. "A powerful pressure group wants PPP to join," he related, including MPA Qasim Zia, who hopes to obtain the Senior Minister position currently occupied by rival Raja Riaz. Meanwhile, the PPP ministers have resumed their offices although, according to Shaheen, Shahbaz has delayed convening his cabinet until Zardari makes a decision of whether to continue the coalition. - - - PML-N Reverses Governor's Rule - - - ¶8. (C) Shaheen relayed that Shahbaz has already reversed several actions taken by Governor Salman Taseer during governor's rule. The Chief Secretary has told the Inspector General of Police (IGP) to stop his work in preparation for the Prime Minister to reappoint the previous IGP, Shaheen said. Shahbaz has also cancelled 800 transfers ordered by the governor, according to Shaheen. However, Shaheen, as well other observers, expect that the Prime Minister will insist that Shahbaz retain the newly appointed Chief Secretary, a fellow Seraiki speaker from south Punjab. - - - Comment: Smoother Sailing, But Clouds Still Linger - - - ¶9. (C) Comment: The temporary reinstatement of Shahbaz Sharif will help settle the political waters in Punjab for now. The next acts of this drama will depend on whether the PML forward block reaches enough mass to split the party and whether Zardari will appoint a replacement to the unpopular PPP Governor Salman Taseer. HUNT