THE NUMBERS GAME IN THE PUNJAB

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000038 E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/2/2034 TAGS: PGOV PK SUBJECT: THE NUMBERS GAME IN THE PUNJAB Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D ¶1. (C) Summary: The key to power in the Punjab lies with the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and its leaders the Chaudhrys of Gujrat. The Chaudhry cousins told the Principal Officer on February 28 that they were being assiduously courted by both the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) but were adament that they had not -- despite claims to the contrary from PPP officials -- formalized a deal with either party. Absent support from the Chaudhries, neither the PPP nor the PML-N are currently in a position to form a government. While the Chaudhries are leaning strongly towards the PML-N, they were concerned that party leader Nawaz Sharif might not be interested either in forming a government or in reconciling with the PML. The PPP, which is desperate to achieve its own government in the Punjab, is talking with the Chaudhries as well as independent-minded members of the PML-N and PML, but as of March 2 appeared to have found little success. End Summary. PML Strategy ¶2. (C) Pakistan's two main political parties are both struggling to obtain the 187 votes in the provincial assembly necessary to form a new government in the Punjab province, much to the reported dismay of PPP leaders in Islamabad who had been assured by Punjab Governor Salman Taseer that the necessary votes would materialize once Shahbaz Sharif was removed. In a February 28 meeting with Principal Officer, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi repeatedly emphasized that they had made no final deal with Governor Taseer to support the PPP in electing a new Chief Minister in the Punjab and that they were "having fun" receiving emissaries from both the major political parties. Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, who had reportedly been encouraging his party to align with the PPP, stated that both PPP Chair President Zardari and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif were "untrustworthy." His elder cousin, and the likely final decisionmaker, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, however, chimed in to add that the PPP was "unpopular" as well. The two declared themselves open to offers from either side but stated that formal terms had not yet been discussed with either party. Chaudhry Shujaat offered that the "natural electoral alliance" was with the PML-N, but Chaudhry Pervaiz countered that perhaps that could come at a later date closer to national elections. ¶3. (C) Chaudhry Pervaiz suggested that his return as Chief Minister (he held the job for most of the Musharraf period) was a strong possibility in the case of alliance with either side. He argued that the PPP candidates for Chief Minister lacked the skills to govern the province (former provincial Senior Minister Raja Riaz and former provincial Opposition Leader Qasim Zia) or would be a public relations disaster (Governor Salman Taseer). Chaudhry Shujaat ruled out his party accepting either former provincial Finance Minister Tanveer Kaira or federal Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar as Chief Minister as both came from the Chaudhries home district of Gujrat. He also added that Prime Minister Gilani would block any attempt to move current Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi into the job, as he posed a potential rival in the Prime Minister's home district fo Multan. Chaudhry Shujaat was skeptical that the Sharif brothers wanted to elevate Sardar Zulfiqar Khosa or another PML-N member to the post of Chief Minister, as the brothers perpetually feared anyone else in the party heading a provincial or federal government. This he felt might make the PML-N more amenable to an alliance in which the PML provided the Chief Minister -- although he never directly suggested Chaudhry Pervaiz, as the candidate for the job in such an alliance. ¶4. (C) Principal Officer inquired about the PML forward block -- 37 PML members of the provincial assembly who had already pledged their support to the PML-N. The Chaudhries stated that they believed 35 of these were recoverable with the right amount of political and financial inducement. Chaudhry Shujaat stated that if the alliance with the PPP was eventually chosen, the PML would move to disqualify preemptively Ataur Maneka based on his repeated public statements in support of the PML-N. This would prevent others from voting against the party out of fear for losing their seats. He noted, however, that disqualification would not invalidate the overall Chief Minister election, meaning that a PPP alliance was a risk. ¶5. (C) Chaudhry Shujaat noted that unlike the PPP (which had provided a meeting with President Zardari) approaches those from the PML-N, thus far, had not come directly from Nawaz or Shahbaz Sharif but rather through senior party officials (Ishaq Dar, Pervaiz Malik, and Ch. Nisar Ali Khan). He worried that while many in the PML-N would like to form a governing coalition with the PML, it would still take significant effort to convince Nawaz Sharif to lay aside personal differences with the Chaudhries. He characterized the condolence calls from Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif on the death of his mother as "helpful" but noted that no political breakthroughs had been achieved in those meetings, only a thawing of relations. Chaudhry Shujaat noted that media magnate Majid Nizami (owner of the Nation, the right-wing Nawa-i-Waqt, and Waqt television) was working to convince Nawaz Sharif to move towards a PML alliance. At the end of the meeting, Chaudhry Shujaat pulled Principal Officer away from his cousin and whispered that the Principal Officer should meet with Nizami and with Nawaz or Shahbaz Sharif and try to help achieve a PML/PML-N deal. PPP Worries about a Majority ¶6. (C) In separate February 28 meetings with Principal Officer, PPP Secretary General Jehangir Badr and former PPP Provincial Assembly Opposition Leader and Chief Minister hopeful Qasim Zia revealed that President Zardari blamed Governor Taseer for the current political crisis. They stated that the Governor had assured President Zardari that he had the required numbers and a final deal with the PML prior to the verdict and the subsequent imposition of governor's rule. Zia claimed that the PPP senior leaders now recognized that Taseer had been either overly optimistic in his estimates or completely "out-of-touch with ground realities." Badr felt that there was "little hope" of gaining either the required PML deal (which he argued most in the party still opposed) or of convincing independents or independent-minded PML-N types to support a PPP candidate. Zia believed that a deal was still possible with the PML, particularly once they had been rebuffed by the Sharifs, who he argued were in no mood to cut a deal that would resolve the political crisis. He also held out hope for getting some forward block to switch sides, but only after the party clearly revealed who was going to be the Chief Minister candidate -- something that up until now the party had resisted. Former PPP Senior Minister Raja Riaz in a March 2 meeting with Principal Officer stated that the PML had stonewalled on any deal through the weekend and that he was not optimistic for a quick end to governor's rule, which he (and the other two leaders) all agreed had become a public relations disaster. PML-N Protests Die Down ¶7. (C) The PML-N backed off its province-wide protest strategy on March 1. Only small demonstrations (a few hundred people) occurred on March 1 at so-called "hunger strike camps" that the party had established in all districts of the province. Nawaz Sharif addressed a large gathering at Jamia Naeemia (a conservative Brailvi madrassa in Lahore whose leadership was responsible for violent street protests in Lahore in February 2006 over the Danish cartoons). Shahbaz Sharif addressed a conference on human rights atrocities in Swat, organized by civil society activists at Lahore's Al-Hamra Hall. On March 2, Nawaz Sharif addressed a gathering of nearly 2000 in the rural district of Narowal (central Punjab),while Shahbaz Sharif addressed a rally of around 7500 in the southern city of Bahawalpur. According to the party's Central Finance Secretary Pervaiz Malik, this change in strategy was taken primarily to focus the party's efforts on demonstrations were senior leaders would be present and to shore-up support from like-minded elements in the civil society and madrassa communities. Malik stated that the party would limit its province-wide protests while it prepared for the March 12-16 long march to and sit-in at Islamabad. PML-N MPAs attempted to hold a legally questionable session at the now-unlocked Provincial Assembly building on March 2, primarily to speak against the imposition of governor's rule. They abandoned their efforts upon learning that news media was barred from entering the Assembly building. Comment ¶8. (C) The PML holds the key to forming a new Punjab government. The Chaudhries are carefully considering their best political option but appear to be leaning strongly towards the PML-N. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain appears to have effectively overruled Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and his son Moonis' initial enthusiasm towards the PPP and is making the final decisions on any governing alliances without regards for the Elahis' personal political ambitions. Provided the Sharifs are interested in making a deal to remain in the Punajb government, a still as-yet-questionable proposition, the PPP may find that its attempt to seize the provincial government through disqualification has failed. In such a scenario, President Zardari will be left with the unpalatable options of either taking the public relations hit of continuing an unpopular governor's rule for an extended period of time or admitting defeat and allowing the PML-N and PML to form a provincial government with the PPP in opposition. End Comment. HUNT