PUNJAB GOVERNOR TAKES OVER WHILE PROTESTS CONTINUE

S E C R E T LAHORE 000035





E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/26/2034

TAGS: PGOV, PTER, MOPS, PK

SUBJECT: PUNJAB GOVERNOR TAKES OVER WHILE PROTESTS CONTINUE



Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D



1. (C) Summary: Protests over the disqualification of Pakistan

Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif and

invalidation of PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif's election to the

provincial assembly continued for a second day across the

Punjab. Punjab Governor Salman Taseer expressed his serious

concern to Principal Officer in a February 26 meeting that

protests had the potential to lead to serious confrontation with

security forces despite his instructions to the police to avoid

any violence -- an instruction that appears to have largely been

adhered to except in Rawalpindi. Taseer believed that

demonstrations would eventually die down in two or three days.

The Governor anticipated that he would be given the full 60 days

of governor's rule in the province despite pressure from within

his own party and its likely ally the Pakistan Muslim League

(PML) to form a new government as soon as possible. The

Governor stated that his decision to lock the Punjab Assembly

building on the morning of February 26 was a direct result of

the PML-N's "illegal" parliamentary session on the evening of

February 25. The Governor expressed his desire to avoid such

harsh actions, but noted that it would be largely dependent on

the PML-N's conduct and stated that there were those in the

federal government contemplating detention of PML-N leader Nawaz

Sharif, Jamaat-e-Islami President Qazi Hussain Ahmed, and

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf President Imran Khan -- a decision that

was "out of his hands" and would depend on their conduct. The

Governor was eager to deliver on USG priorities in the initial

meeting, promising immediately to end a local ban on the storage

of NATO containers bound for Afghanistan in the province, to

press for FBI access to detainees who had accepted

responsibility for the Luna Caprese restaurant blast in

Islamabad, to address without delay growing militant recruitment

in southern Punjab, and to take-over the remaining

Jamaat-ud-Dawa affiliated schools in the Punjab. End Summary.



Governor Taseer Takes Over



2. (C) In a February 26 meeting with Principal Officer, Governor

Salman Taseer expressed his deep concern over the possibility of

violence during protests being organized across the province on

Feburary 26 and 27 to protest the disqualification of Nawaz

Sharif and the dismissal of former Chief Minister Shahbaz

Sharif. The Governor noted that any violence would be extremely

problematic for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and hence he

had instructed police to avoid confronting demonstrators or

attempting to disperse them with tear gas, batons, or other

coercive tactics. The Governor admitted that this approach

would likely lead to larger protests, but he felt that if

allowed to run their natural course without any government

confrontation or interference, the protests would conclude by

early next week. In a separate meeting, senior PPP leader

Khwaja Tariq Rahim agreed with the governor's approach, stating

that "the PML-N's best hope was for some deaths during the

protests," as this was the only way that the public would

sustain them for a prolonged period. Rahim worried, however,

that the PML-N could provoke confrontation or that the police

could ignore their orders from the newly appointed Inspector

General of Police and chose to confront the protestors. The

Governor was unconcerned by the lawyer's long march and sit-in

scheduled for March 16, quipping "perhaps I'll schedule Basant

(the annual spring kite festival) for the same day and we'll see

whether the people prefer to march to Islamabad or party in

Lahore."



3. (C) Governor Taseer stated that he believed Qat hQwould be

given the full 60 days of governor's rule originally announced

by President Zardari. Taseer intended to govern during this

period without appointing formal advisors (in order to avoid

controversy over who was appointed to those slots in the party)

and without changing most of the provincial bureaucracy

appointed by Shahbaz Sharif -- save 5 or 6 senior secretaries.

He shared that there were those both within his party and within

its likely ally the PML who wanted to form a new government more

quickly. Taseer stressed that he disagreed with this approach,

claiming that the PPP needed to maintain governor's rule as long

as possible in order to ensure that its policy priorities and

party needs were entrenched before entering into another

coalition government. He held out the possibility that the

National Assembly might be asked to extend governor's rule for

another 60 days after the initial period expired. Taseer denied

that this reluctance had anything to do with difficulties in

obtaining the numbers necessary to elect a new PPP Chief

Minister in the provincial assembly, claiming that with the

disqualification of Nawaz, PML-N Provincial Assembly members

were eager to cross the aisle and join a PPP government. The

Governor was also optimistic that the PML was keen to come back

into power as a coalition partner even if it was denied the

chief ministership -- the party's long-stated demand for joining

with the PPP.



4. (C) Asked about his decision to lock the provincial assembly

on the morning of February 26, Governor Taseer stated that the

PML-N's "illegal" actions had caused him to take the decision.

He stated that the Speaker had no right to call on assembly

session following the imposition of governor's rule, as the

Constitution clearly established that only the Governor had that

right in the absence of a leader of the house -- and then only

to elect a new leader of the house. According to Governor

Taseer, when the PML-N parliamentarians vacated the building

this morning to get breakfast (after having spent the night in

the assembly cafeteria),he quickly seized the opportunity to

lock the building to prevent anymore "extra-constitutional

action" on their part. Governor Taseer noted the public

relations damage that this caused the PPP, but felt that it was

the only way to control actions by the PML-N. Similarly, he

shared that some in Islamabad were considering the detention of

PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif, JI President Qazi Hussain Ahmed, and

PTI President Imran Khan. He agreed that such an action would

provoke the public, but claimed "I'm not in the meetings on

this, and it will depend on how they conduct themselves."



5. (C) Governor Taseer seemed eager to address USG priorities in

his initial meeting with the Principal Officer. The Governor

promised to convey immediately (not later than February 27)

instructions to concerned district officials that NATO supplies

destined for Afghanistan could be stored at the Tarnol truck

terminal in the northern Punjab. District officials had

instructed the NATO contractor to stop using the facility

following controversy in the Provincial Assembly. Former Chief

Minister Shahbaz Sharif had instructed that the storage could

continue on February 22, but district officials negated his

orders following his February 25 removal. Similarly, Governor

Taseer promised to advocate for FBI access to detainees being

held in Rawalpindi who had confessed their involvement in the

2007 bombing of the Luna Caprese restaurant in Islamabad, in

which FBI agents assigned to Embassy Islamabad had been injured.

While the Governor was optimistic that access could be

arranged, he noted that he would need to consult with his close

friend, Federal Interior Advisor Rehman Malik before he could

proceed.



6. (S) Governor Taseer stated that his highest priorities

included taking over the remaining approximately 70

Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) affiliated madrassas in the Punjab that had

been identified by the Punjab Special Branch for former Chief

Minister Shahbaz Sharif but had been allowed to continue to

operate. Similarly, the Governor promised to shut-down or

takeover madrassas in southern Punjab that had been implicated

in recruiting for the FATA militancy and to shut-down training

camps located in the same region. The Governor shared that

officials of the Inter-Services Intelligence Division (ISI) had

contacted him prior to the imposition of governor's rule to

discuss the issue. He stated that they had offered their full

assistance and cooperation to him in pursuing these policies --

which the Governor had been advocating for some time -- and

merely wished to "be a part of the process." The Governor, who

is generally skeptical of ISI's intentions, stated that he

believed they could be constructive and praised the new Director

of ISI's Internal Division, General Islam (NFI),who he

described as a like-minded, long-time friend. The Governor

stated that he had requested ISI to assign agents to their home

districts in order to improve intelligence collection and that

the ISI had been receptive to this suggestion.



Protests Continue



7. (C) Public protest continued on February 26 throughout the

Punjab with rallies being held in most districts of the

province. Rallies were generally larger than on February 25, a

fact many attributed to the coincidence of these rallies with

the lawyers movement's weekly Thursday protests. Most

businesses and private schools and colleges in the province

reportedly observed the strike called by various bar and

business associations, although government offices, schools, and

the High Courts continued with business as usual for most of the

morning and early afternoon. Demonstrations of over 5000

occurred in Lahore, Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Gujranwala,

Sheikhupura, and Multan. PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif addressed

the Sheikhupura rally, claiming "everyone knows Shahbaz Sharif

is the legal Chief Minister of the Punjab" and stating that his

grievance was not with the PPP as a party but with "one man" --

President Zardari. PML-N activists in the province were joined

at these protests by lawyers, traders, civil society activists,

madrassa students, religious leaders, and activists from the

Jamaat-e-Islami and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf. Additional

protests are planned for following Friday prayers on February 27.



8. (C) In the provincial capital Lahore, small demonstrations

in various locations throughout the morning and early afternoon

ultimately converged in front of the National Assembly building

at around 3pm. Demonstrations throughout most of the province

remained peaceful and police appeared to adhere to the

Governor's orders to avoid confrontation. Vandalism was

minimal, although tires were again burned and PPP posters with

President Zardari's picture were torn down. The exception to

this trend was in Rawalpindi, where violence ensued when PML-N

and PPP workers clashed following vandalism of PPP offices and

where demonstrators vandalized PML politician Sheikh Rashid's

house. In Bahawalpur, PML-N leaders, while addressing a protest

camp established in front of the residence of one of the judges

who decided the case, vociferously criticized the USG statement

that the court decision was "an internal matter" demanding that

the United States' condemn the action.



Politicians Discuss New Chief Minister



9. (C) According to sources in both parties, discussions on a

new Chief Minister are moving forward between the PPP and the

PML. Chaudhry Fawwad Ahmed, a local lawyer with ties to the PML

and the Governor, stated that the PML is attempting to negotiate

a better deal than President Zardari's initial offer of Speaker

of the National Assembly for Moonis Elahi and the Federal Senate

Chair for an as-yet-udetermined PML candidate. He claimed that

Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi was now demanding the Chief Ministership

for himself. Chaudhry Fawwad stated that President Zardari

would likely try to convince the Chaudhries to accept Salman

Taseer as Chief Minister but argued that the President would

ultimately concede to the PML's demands in order to end the

public relation's problems that a prolonged governor's rule

would cause the PPP. Chaudhry Fawwad also confided that the

Chaudhry's ultimate goal is to enter a governing alliance with

the PPP, thereby weaken the PML-N, and then ultimately negotiate

a PML reunifaction on their terms prior to the next election.



10. (C) Punjab Intelligence Bureau Deputy Director (and

confidante of President Zardari) Riaz Ahmed Sheikh told

Principal Officer that President Zardari was keen to conclude an

early deal with the PML. He stated that the President was

prepared to offer the PML the Governorship for Chaudhry Pervaiz

Elahi, but that the Chief Ministership would need to go to a PPP

candidate. He stated that the PPP was currently considering

four people for the Chief Minister's slot: Governor Salman

Taseer, former Leader of the Opposition in the previous

Provincial Assembly Qasim Zia, PPP Minister for Finance in

Shahbaz Sharif's coalition government Tanveer Ahmad Kaira, and

PPP Senior Minister for Irrigation and Power in Shahbaz Sharif's

coalition government Raja Riaz. Chaudhry Fawwad provided the

identical list in his separate meeting with Principal Officer.

Sheikh stated that Governor Taseer wished to prolong governor's

rule but that President Zardari was inclined to move as rapidly

as possible to convene the Provincial Assembly and elect a new

PPP Chief Minister.



Comment



11. (C) The PPP finds itself in a difficult position with public

opinion clearly on the side of the Sharifs, and the PML-N able

to turn out credible demonstrations not only in its strongholds

in urban, central Punjab but also in places such as Multan,

which has generally been perceived as more friendly towards the

PPP. The Governor's strategy to avoid confrontation and hope

for public outrage to abate quickly may be the party's best

available strategy, as the Sharifs, at present, seem in no mood

to compromise with Zardari. Sealing the Provincial Assembly has

fueled suspicions that the PPP intends to govern in a

dictatorial fashion in the Punjab. Any arrests of opposition

political leaders would only serve to increase this perception

and inflame public sentiment. A rapid end to governor's rule

and election of a new Chief Minister may help move things

forward, although whether the PML and PPP can ultimately seal

the necessary compromise deal remains uncertain. End Comment.





HUNT