PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER THREATENS "OPEN WAR" IF NAWAZ IS DISQUALIFIED

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000011





E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/23/2019

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, PK

SUBJECT: PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER THREATENS "OPEN WAR" IF NAWAZ IS

DISQUALIFIED



REF: ISLAMABAD 141



CLASSIFIED BY: Bryan Hunt, Principal Officer, Consulate Lahore,

U.S. Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



1. (C) Summary: Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif told Principal

Officer (PO) January 23 that his party would start an "open war"

if the Supreme Court disqualified either him or his brother

Nawaz Sharif from holding office and stated that

disqualification would trigger "riots and masses on the

streets," thus opening a potential window of opportunity for the

military to intervene. Governor Salman Taseer disagreed,

telling PO in a separate January 23 meeting that the Sharifs

could muster very little support on the streets and expressing

confidence that the Pakistan People's Party would take over the

Chief Minister position with little disruption. President

Zardari plans to meet the evening of January 23 with the

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz to discuss a possible settlement,

but neither the Chief Minister nor the Governor foresaw

resolution. PO stressed to both leaders that the U.S. wanted to

see stability and continuity in government. End Summary.



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Chief Minister Says Disqualification Will Trigger Open War

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2. (C) Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif told Principal

Officer January 23 that the disqualification by the Supreme

Court of either him or his brother, former Prime Minister Nawaz

Sharif, from holding public office would trigger an "open war."

He predicted that a ruling against the Sharifs would provoke

riots throughout Punjab province, as the Pakistan Muslim

League-Nawaz (PML-N) gathers its members and associated parties.

Asked if the PML-N Members of the Provincial Assembly (MPA)

would stand down from the Punjab Assembly, Shahbaz described it

as a "distinct possibility."



3. (C) Shahbaz said that he was reassured that Chief of Army

Staff General Kayani "seeks stability," but he noted that the

disqualification judgment could cause such political chaos that

it might compel the military to intervene. He clarified that

while the court could disqualify Nawaz immediately, Shahbaz

would face a tribunal at the provincial level that could take

"days or months" to reaffirm the disqualification. If the

Provincial Assembly had to choose a new Chief Minister, Shahbaz

said that he could not predict which way the votes would go,

though he believed that the PML-N had the numbers now to take a

majority.



4. (C) PO assured Shahbaz that the U.S. has not encouraged the

disqualification decision to occur, and has pressed all parties

to put governance ahead of politics. Shahbaz replied that, as

he looks back on his tenure as Chief Minister, he has attempted

to inculcate good governance, a critical element in the

development of the province.



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Governor Convinced That PPP Will Prevail Peacefully

- - -



5. (C) In a separate January 23 meeting, Governor Salman Taseer

maintained that the PML-N could do little if confronted by a

disqualification ruling. "I don't think they have the clout for

street demonstrations; they have no workers, no street power,"

he insisted. He dismissed the warning by PML-N MPAs that they

would resign as "just a threat," and believed that many would

remain in the Assembly if the Sharifs were disqualified. Taseer

blasted the Chief Minister as "psychotic and power hungry," and

contended that Nawaz was unfit to rule the government.



6. (C) Taseer related that the entire Pakistan Muslim League

(PML) block would align with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)

even if the PPP kept the Chief Minister position. "They'll go

with the ruler -- they're like a soft puppy," he quipped. He

explained that the province would fall under Governor's Rule for

several months, after which the Assembly would choose a new

Chief Minister. Asked who the PPP might nominate, he responded

that "we have plenty of candidates, don't worry." In fact, he

continued, "there is nothing to stop the Governor from becoming

Chief Minister." When PO pointed out that the Constitution

might bar the Governor from holding the Chief Ministership,

Taseer responded that the bar only applies to bureaucrats and

not "constitutional appointments."



7. (C) Regarding a settlement, Taseer related that President

Zardari would discuss the situation with the PML-N on the

evening of January 23, but he did not forecast a resolution.

[Note: PPP MPA Qasim Zia noted in a separate January 23 meeting

that the discussion would include two senior federal ministers

from the PPP. Embassy Islamabad contacts reported that Nawaz

held a meeting of all PML-N parliamentarians in Islamabad in

preparation for the meeting. End Note.]



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Comment: PPP Underestimates PML-N Power

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8. (C) While Shahbaz appeared resigned to the disqualification

decision, the Governor seemed overly confident in the PPP's

ability to withstand a PML-N onslaught. We believe that he has

grossly underestimated the popularity of the PML-N in the

province, as well as its ability to bring out masses to

participate in marches and protests. Moreover, Taseer has also

overestimated the cohesion of the PML block, whose members have

tended to lean in several directions at once. Post believes

that any change in leadership in the provincial level,

particularly as a result of a Supreme Court disqualification,

would prompt a bitter political struggle that will spill over to

poison party relations at the federal level. Regardless of

Shahbaz's predictions of Army intervention to quell unrest, we

believe the PPP government would take significant steps to

control law and order specifically to preclude the need for Army

intervention.





HUNT