NIGERIA: IJAW YOUTHS "TAKE BACK THE STRUGGLE" AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000074 SIPDIS STATE PASS NSC FOR BOBBY PITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PM EPET ECON KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: IJAW YOUTHS "TAKE BACK THE STRUGGLE" AT YENAGOA MEETING REF: A. REF: LAGOS 066 ¶B. 08 LAGOS 479 ¶C. 08 LAGOS 475 ¶D. 08 LAGOS 449 ¶E. 08 LAGOS 386 ¶F. 08 LAGOS 385 ¶G. 08 LAGOS 367 ¶H. 08 LAGOS 328 ¶I. 08 LAGOS 313 Classified By: Consul General Donna M. Blair for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (U) Summary: Over 3,000 Ijaw youths, led by Dimieri von Kemedi and other drafters of the Kaiama Declaration, met in Yenagoa, the capital of Bayelsa State on February 6 to "take back the struggle" for solutions to the problems of the Niger Delta. According to Kemedi, the youths issued a strong communique (posted on the Ijaw Youth Council Website www.iycworldwide.org) stating that any Ijaw youth who failed to depart the militant camps within three months would be considered a criminal. The Federal Government has not responded to a proposal, submitted by Bayelsa State five months ago, to disarm the militants (who Kemedi defined as youths with weapons) and to grant them amnesty. In light of the Federal Government's failure to act, Bayelsa State will assist the youths by providing a program reorienting them to life in civil society and providing them with jobs; because there is no guarantee that the security agencies will not arrest militant youths attending the programs, youths who have never taken up arms will also participate. Like Delta State, which has enjoyed an extended period without conflict, Bayelsa State appears to have established a workable proxy for amnesty that will allow militants to abandon criminality and become gainfully employed. It remains to be seen whether the efforts of state governments, in the absence of Federal Government commitment to amnesty, a viable program of disarmament for militant youths and demilitarization of the Niger Delta via withdrawal of the JTF, will be sufficient to bring peace to the Niger Delta. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Over 3,000 Ijaw youths from every state in the South-South gathered in Yenagoa, capital of Bayelsa State on February 6, to "take back the struggle" for solutions to the problems of the Niger Delta, Dimieri Von Kemedi, Director of the Bayelsa State Office of eGovernance and Public Procurement, told Pol-Econ Chief on February 7. Organizers of the meeting included Kemedi, Felix Tuodolo and other Ijaw 
youths who drafted the Kaiama Declaration in 1998, many of whom he had not seen in some time, Kemedi said. In attendance for the opening ceremony were representatives of the Niger Delta Ministry, and Bayelsa State Governor Timipre Silva, who gave the opening speech, according to Kemedi. (Note: A February 4 article about the planned conference in the Guardian, listed, in addition to Tuodolo, other key figures in the Kaiama Declaration: T.K. Ogoriba, Asari Dokubo, Oynifie Jonjon, Dan Ekpebide, Were Digifa, Kingsly Kuku, Udengs Eradiri, Mike Wemebowei, Ebelo Jeremiah, Maxwell Oko, Sam Ogbuku, Demieri Von Kemedi, Famous Daunemigha, Patterson Ogun, and Jude Tabai. A February 3 article in the Business Times said Asari Dokubo, at a rally in Buguma, Rivers State, urged Kalabari youths to give up violence, kidnapping and other criminal acts, and asserted that neither the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF),which he heads, nor the Ijaw Youth Council, engage in criminal activities. End Note) Ijaw Youths To Quit Camps -------------- ¶3. (C) Kemedi said that he was pleased that the Ijaw youths agreed on the issues and ratified the strong language of the communique issued at the conclusion of the conference. Ijaw youths will leave the camps within three months, Kemedi said, and anyone found within the camps after the close of the three month period will be considered a criminal. However, these youths have guns ("the generally understood meaning of militant", Kemedi said),and will need a way to dispose of them. Five months ago, Bayelsa State presented the Federal Government with a fully articulated plan for disarming the LAGOS 00000074 002 OF 003 youths, but the Federal Government has not responded. In the absence of action by the Federal Government, Bayelsa State will take the initiative to help the youths who walk away from the camps, he said. The State is not able to undertake a formal disarmament program, which can only be conducted by the Federal Government, according to Kemedi. Nonetheless, Bayelsa State has prepared a program through which religious leaders, trained in 2008 by an NGO called ALPHA from the UK, will work with the youths to help them to reorient themselves to life outside the camps. (Ref E) Without assurances from the Federal government on amnesty, however, there is no guarantee that the state security agencies will not arrest youths as they go through the program. As a result, Bayelsa State plans to include both youths coming out of the camps and others who have never been in the camps in each training, making it more difficult for the security services to identify former militants, Kemedi said. "Even I Had a Hard Time Sorting Out MEND" -------------- ¶4. (C) In a conversation during Poloffs February 4 visit to Yenagoa, Kemedi said that even people like himself, "who should have known what was going on", had had a difficult time sorting out just who was in the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Now he knows that MEND is just an email address, Kemedi said, and he believes that erstwhile MEND spokeserson Jomo Gbomo is Henry Okah, a professional arms dealer, whose sole purpose was to create an atmosphere conducive to his business, and who seduced others by offering them a credit line with which to buy arms. (Note: Okah is currently in jail and suffering from kidney ailments. He also took up arms dealing as part of his overall activities with MEND. End Note) With Okah in jail, it appears "Jomo Gbomo's" words are not as dramatic, nor as well-chosen as in the past. Moreover, whereas in the past Jomo Gbomo used to predict events, which would then take place, now the person using that name is able only to issue pronouncements after events occur, Kemedi said. (note: We do not not know if Kemedi's prediction that the Jomo Gbomo was Okah is correct and if this is correct, we do not know if one or several people have taken his place as the reported MEND spokesperson. End Note) Claims No Attacks on Oil in Bayelsa Since 2007 -------------- - ¶5. (C) In the February 4 conversation, Kemedi said that, to his knowledge, there have been no attacks, with the exception of the attack on Bonga, on oil facilities by militants in Bayelsa since 2007. This was the result of what Kemedi called "a very untidy process". (Comment: Kemedi is likely referring to payments by Bayelsa Governor Silva to militant leaders in the state. (Ref F) End Comment) Attacks on oil installations in Rivers State are down as well, he said, because the emphasis has shifted to kidnappings for ransom (by militants and criminals),and to offshore piracy. On kidnapping, Kemedi said, the views of the people in the villages have changed. In the past, they helped the militants by hiding their kidnapping victims within the villages; they no longer do that, and instead cooperate with the security agencies because they see the kidnappings as a threat to the community. Because attitudes have changed, the militants are unable to recruit as easily as they did before. ¶6. (C) However, the militants are only half of the problem in the Niger Delta; the other half is the military, he said. The military wants to remain in the Niger Delta because they profit enormously from money charged for escorting illegally bunkered crude and from money extorted in the name of providing security on the roads. The Joint Task Force (JTF) foot soldiers are not the only ones who profit; the Commissioner of Police, the Director of the State Security Service, the military all line up at the Governor's door asking for "favors", Kemedi said. FG "Not Interested" In Resolving Niger Delta Crisis -------------- -------------- LAGOS 00000074 003 OF 003 ¶7. (C) The Federal Government is not interested in resolving the crisis in the Niger Delta; there are too many powerful people benefiting from the crisis to have it end, Kemedi said. There is no money in the budget to develop the Niger Delta. No effort has been made to address the problem of illegal bunkering; the ships that come in to pick up the crude are not small, and could easily be identified and dealt with if the Federal Government wanted to do so, Kemedi said. In response to the report of the Technical Committee on the Niger Delta, the Federal Government has set up yet another committee to report on the report. This is why the South-South itself must do everything in its power to bring an end to the crisis, Kemedi said. States Find Ways Around FG Failure on Amnesty -------------- ¶8. (C) As a result, the states will find a way around the question of amnesty, which only the Federal Government can grant. What the states can control is employment, he said. Once the states create employment opportunities, militants and non-militants alike will be able to take advantage of them. Kemedi himself says he is no longer interested in the percent of derivation that goes to the states. Bayelsa State has done a study that shows that the state has the potential to earn as much revenue from shrimp and fisheries projects as it does from oil, Kemedi noted. Bayelsa is sending 50 youths to Denmark for seamanship training, and has purchased a number of Danish ships which will be shipped to Bayelsa to help create employment. ¶9. (C) Comment: That it took Kemedi, who with hindsight says he "ought to have known", let alone the Ijaw youths in the creeks, time to figure out how they had been misled and manipulated is not surprising; television and internet access is available only in Bayelsa's larger towns, and cellphone access is intermittent at best, especially in the destitute riverine villages. Notwithstanding, they have had it figured out for some time; we have reported since August 2008 that the militants were ready to lay down their arms, and the Bayelsa State proposal went in to the Federal Government months ago, according to Kemedi. The Federal Government's failure to act, like its failure to develop the area economically, and its failure to interdict the ships that carry stolen crude, lends credence to the contention that the Federal Government does not want to solve a problem from which many high level people benefit. ¶10. (C) Comment Continued: The Federal Government's failure to respond on the issue of amnesty has forced Bayelsa State to contrive a proxy for amnesty that allows militant youths (by Kemedi's definition, "youths with guns") to leave the camps, reorient themselves to a life in civil society and, alongside youths who have never taken up arms, begin one of the new jobs the state is creating for them. Delta State has had a similar proxy for amnesty in operation for some time. Militant youths have jobs patrolling the creeks as part of the Delta Waterways Commission, or in one of the projects or local offices established by the Delta State Oil Producing Areas Commission (DESOPADEC) (Ref A). Job creation, coupled with the election of an Ijaw local government chairman for a Warri local government area, has led to a comparatively peaceful period in Delta State. It remains to be seen whether the efforts of state governments, in the absence of Federal Government commitment to amnesty, a viable program of disarmament for militant youths and demilitarization of the Niger Delta via withdrawal of the JTF, will be sufficient to bring peace to the Niger Delta. In Ambassador's February 10 meeting with the new Niger Delta Minister, it appears unlikely that the Federal Government is getting its act together to better address Niger Delta issues anytime soon. End Comment. BLAIR