U.S.-UK PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT IN ANAMBRA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000450

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM ASEC ECON SOCI NI
SUBJECT: U.S.-UK PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT IN ANAMBRA

REF: A. ABUJA 2030

B. ABUJA 2001

C. LAGOS 449

Classified By: CG Donna M. Blair; Reasons Sections 1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The electoral campaign is on in earnest in Anambra
State in advance of the key February 6, 2010, gubernatorial
election. Serious structural and electoral process problems
exist in Anambra, notably the ability (or inability) of the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct a
free, fair, transparent vote and tabulation count. Voter
registration and security concerns remain paramount too, as
voiced by Anambra residents to ConGen Lagos reps and the UK
Deputy High Commissioner during their November 12-14
assessment tour of Anambra State. Anambrans sense the
February 2010 vote is vital to the future of sound electoral
processes and democracy in Nigeria, and for the development
and stability of their industrious state. Most view this
vote too as a litmus test for, or harbinger of, the national
2011 elections. Many are appealing for the United States,
the UK, and others to watch closely and speak out on the
Anambra elections, as quite a few fear that "the rigging has
already started." Also in a recent foreign policy speech the
Ambassador highlighted that the international community will
be watching the Anambra elections to see if Nigeria is
capable of holding credible elections. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
JOY OVER UBA RULING; LET THE GAMES AND CAMPAIGN BEGIN
-------------- --------------


2. (C) The road to the February 6, 2010, gubernatorial
election in Anambra State would and should seem clearer now,
with "governor-in-waiting" Andy Uba's exhaustive legal
challenges (Refs A and B) dismissed and consigned to history
(Ref C). At least that is some of the sentiment the U.S.
Mission's pre-election team heard on the street in Anambra's
capital Awka and commercial hub Onitsha. ConGen Lagos
Pol/Econ Chief, FSN Pol Specialist, and the Lagos-based
British Deputy High Commissioner traveled to Anambra State
November 12-14 and met with the INEC, party officials and
candidates, journalists and other civil society reps, the
police, and business leaders to gauge their sense of
pre-election politics there. The team spoke with these
individuals on the eve of and after the court ruling (Ref C).
They seemed to be holding a collective breath for "the right
outcome" in Enugu (COMMENT: The one that occurred, as it
turned out. END COMMENT.),so that all could get on with the
state gubernatorial electoral campaign in earnest, officially
launched on November 8.


3. (C) Intial meetings on November 12 were held in Awka with
Chief Rowland Uwa, Anambra State's INEC Commissioner, who had
also invited his senior staff to attend. Uwa asserted that
"nothing went wrong" in Anambra's 2007 election, even though
100-plus legal challenges emerged afterwards. He did
acknowledge, however, that "there may be problems" with the
state's electronic voting system, but he still expects the
elections on February 6 to go off "smoothly and peacefully."
(COMMENT: The team found this hour-long session
underwhelming and quite predictable, more a recitation of
INEC's Soviet-style org chart and plethora of commissioners
and hangers-on than a clear vision for running elections
better here. Local INEC officials in Anambra do not appear
well-prepared for the February 6 vote, and are frankly
oblivious to many of the structural flaws like those
associated with the electoral roll and need for a smooth,
transparent registration process. The advance work needed to
conduct a credible, smooth gubernatorial election in Anambra
seems sadly lacking too, although Uwa expressed pride over
voter awareness and education campaigns that INEC staff have
conducted around the state. END COMMENT.)


4. (C) Dr. Chris Ngige, again a leading candidate but now
with the Action Congress (AC),vice PDP, told us "he did not
expect (Uba's chicanery) would destroy the electoral system."
He added that "the only way for Andy to play now is to run
as a candidate" with one of the 27 political parties that
have applied with INEC to stand in the February 6, 2010,

LAGOS 00000450 002 OF 004


vote. Ngige's slick campaign literature and prominent
posters portray him as a "martyr" by his past "suffering," as
a 2003 election-related suit forced Ngige from the
governorship in 2006. Ngige received the U.S.-UK team
outside of Awka at his massive country villa, with much
security present and his cabinet-in-waiting also assembled.
A medical doctor by profession, Ngige does not want for
prescriptions and his populist campaign reminds voters he
delivered on jobs, roads, and a low crime rate during his
"clean, productive three-year tenure." He claims a large
flock in both Anambra and the United States, giving us his
vision via a brochure from the Anambra State Association
(ASA-USA) 2009 National Convention in Washington, D.C.


5. (C) Senator Uche Ekwunife, the Progressive People's
Alliance (PPA) hopeful suggested the pall of Uba's test case
had suppressed active campaigning. The pace should pick up,
with this legal impediment now gone. The highly-confident
and flamboyantly God-fearing Senator Ekwunife described
herself to us as a "rich, comfortable woman," as she had a
private sector career as a UBA banker before politics. She
said she has her "own source of funds," but is also actively
pursuing fundraising and has even received several vehicles
from dedicated supporters. She most fears a smear campaign
against her as a woman, blackmail, and "godfatherism."
Ekwunife once belonged to the PDP but became "disenchanted"
and split from the party to form her own movement, which she
believes is gaining momentum. Ekwunife is going for the
grass roots, especially appealing to hard-working women as
she seeks to become Nigeria's first female governor. Her
campaign posters and billboards are all over Awka and Onitsha
like wallpaper, especially outside her prominent roadside
Awka heaquarters with its massive fleet of minibuses adorned
with her smiling face, golden head-wrap, and bejeweled cross
necklace. "Uche," as she is called locally, predicted that,
if the election were held today, she would win, and by
February she will "floor the men."


6. (C) Activist Emeka Umueagbalasi also commended the Appeals
Court's rejection of Uba's bid, noting that his coalition of
civil society organizations will closely observe and monitor
political events in Anambra state in the run-up and aftermath
of the February 6 elections. He voiced concern over the role
of the INEC and the police during this entire process. The
U.S.-UK team also met with three journalists from "Punch,"
the "Guardian," and the News Agency of Nigeria
off-the-record, who offered useful themes for us to consider
when watching Anambra. They believed the February 6 vote
will be a "test case" for multiparty democracy in Nigeria.
How the INEC conducts the mechanics will be a useful lens for
Nigeria nationwide in 2011, although these newsmen were not
sanguine about a proper process. An evolution is on in
Nigeria, per our sources, from the "traditional big man and
pol," dispenser of patronage, to a more qualified
technocratic and emerging leadership class, like we have
already seen with the governors of Lagos and Edo states.
They suggested "the politics of personality" will still
feature in February 2006 in Anambra, but this "struggle for
the soul" of the voter in the name of good, post-electoral
governance is clearly underway. Religion will also be a
powerful undertone, particularly
Catholic-Anglican-Evangelical parrying, per these scribes.


7. (C) Security and electoral process integrity were key
elements of our November 13 talks with senior Nigeria Police
Force (NPF) management at State Headquarters, Awka. We
discussed the ubiquitous police checkpoints, with 3-4 AK-47
toting cops (and some army) every couple of miles along the
potholed "freeway" that snakes through the state. (Note:
This presence is not linked to the elections. The road has
had that kind of police coverage for the last 12 months
because of its closeness to the Niger Delta. End Note.) The
gregarious Public Relations Officer (PRO) said the NPF is "a
service-oriented organization that wants to leave smiles on
the faces of the people it deals with," adding that security
statewide has stepped up to address armed robberies and
kidnappings. The NPF promised it is gearing up for February
to protect the entire electoral process and personnel, as
well as the voters. He also noted that the police, so as
"not to be caught unawares," were on stand-by alert for any
trouble later that day (and night) following the Uba verdict.
None appeared to have occurred, and outwardly to us the
Saturday scene in both Awka and Onitsha stayed calm, albeit
frenetic in the big market town on the Niger River, hard by

LAGOS 00000450 003 OF 004


the rickety bridge to Delta State.

-------------- --------------
PDP-INEC CORE PROBABLY ROTTEN, WHILE COMMERCE BUSTLES
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Over tea and coffee, the team asked businessmen at the
Kates Associated Industry (KAI) in Onitsha, home to one of
Africa's most sprawling markets, how they viewed state
politics and the nascent electoral campaign. If anything,
the tiny but densely-populated (5 million),predominantly Ibo
and Catholic Anambra State cares more about commerce than
politics. An intense entrepreneurial energy and a
pro-business/new building buzz remain ever-present. These
respectable, humble, and serious private-sector people care
more about a sound enabling environment and platform for
trade and investment, and clamor for better infrastructure
(roads, power, telecom) as well as good education for human
resources. Outside their factory gate, legions of petty
traders hustled to make a naira/buck, amidst teeming chaos,
environmental degradation and decrepit public works, as well
as widespread squalor, stench, and rot. But they do it with
stoic style, class, and flair, as we witnessed while wending
our way through the living labyrinth that is Onitsha market
on a sweaty Saturday morning.


9. (C) Meanwhile, te KAI men echoed concerns we heard
elsewhere about "INEC's ineptitude, a flawed registration
process, and rigging already underway." Our hosts were
looking for someone who could generate jobs and development
in Anambra, and they said that Ngige had done this well
during his abbreviated stint as governor. They commended our
trek to their plant, and lamented they have never seen/did
not know their Assembly legislators from Abuja. As a
Nigerian manufacturer, KAI was not even aware of the pending
Local Content bill; we told them about it. The businessmen
wondered where does INEC end, and the PDP begin (and vice
versa),and were not optimistic for a clean vote in February,
although they did have a more positive outlook for the
future. They expected that the PDP would ultimately get its
act together and field a competitive candidate for Anambra's
governorship. The PDP may still win, even with its early
family feud. If the PDP picks former Central Bank Governor
Charles Soludo, many interlocutors feel his candidacy will be
formidable.


10. (C) Ngige's AC party officials also warned of INEC (and,
by extension, PDP) trickery in the flawed registration drive
with time running out, the questionable transport or
"translocation" of ballot and recording materials as February
6 draws nearer, and unsecure shuffling of ballots that should
be accountable to set serial numbers. The AC crowd appealed
to the UK and the United States (and others outside Nigeria)
"to send scores of monitors, observers, watchers to Anambra
in February." They also asked international partners "to
speak out on how important the 2010 Anambra vote is for
Nigeria's electoral credibility and future, a year out from
national elections." (COMMENT: These AC reps spoke about
the electoral irregularities, apparent or imagined, with
great knowledge and passion. As most had been PDP
apparatchiks in 2007 or before, we suspect that they knew (or
wrote) the playbook, with the INEC. END COMMENT.)

--------------
NOBODY HOME AT AGPA, AND PDP (FOR NOW)
--------------


11. (C) Interestingly, the U.S.-UK assessment team tried on
several occasions to meet with representatives of incumbent
Governor Peter Obi's APGA. We arrived as far as campaign
headquarters November 13, which was somewhat dusty and
scruffy with piles of bland leaflets to deliver, presumably
by the many motorcycles idle in the outside compound. A
low-level APGA functionary begged off, saying that his
principal had been called away for an urgent meeting.
(COMMENT: We do understand that many meetings with a focus
on the Anambra elections featured in Enugu and Abuja while we
were in Awka, thus diverting APGA officials available for our
calls. Moreover, given the disarray within the PDP, the
apparent national-state schism, and the lack of a candidate,
we thought it prudent not to inject our presence in Anambra
into this intra-party rumble, but will follow up with the PDP
at a later date once its Anambra slate is set. END COMMENT.)


LAGOS 00000450 004 OF 004


--------------
COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) As a result of our joint U.S.-UK assessment tour, our
answer to the key question of "Will Anambra State's February
2010 gubernatorial election be clean and credible?" now
remains "Not likely." Serious structural and electoral
process problems persist in Anambra, notably the apparent
inability of the INEC to prepare for a transparent voting
process and proper tabulation of results. Meanwhile, the PDP
appears bent on winning this election at all costs. The U.S.
and UK officials heard often about real voter registration
concerns and "a politicized INEC," while seeing firsthand the
security challenges and a heightened police presence.
Anambrans feel the February 2010 vote is vital to the future
of sound electoral processes and democracy in Nigeria, and
for the development and stability of their own industrious
state. Yet quite a few told us that they fear that "the
rigging has already started."


13. (C) Many are appealing to the United States, the UK, and
others to monitor this contest closely and send observation
teams, and to speak out on the Anambra elections. Their
sense is that it should matter to those who truly care about
Nigeria, and not just the residents and voters of this small,
southeastern Nigerian state of five million souls. Indeed,
Anambra's February 2010 election is a microcosm of and
harbinger for Nigeria 2011, and one that merits our close
watching. The U.S. Mission to Nigeria will continue to
collaborate closely with our UK counterparts, consult with
appropriate GON authorities, and follow developments by
deploying U.S. Mission personnel to cover this important vote.
BLAIR