UBA OUT BUT PDP PROBLEMS PLAGUE ANAMBRA RUN-UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000449 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, AND INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2029 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM NI SUBJECT: UBA OUT BUT PDP PROBLEMS PLAGUE ANAMBRA RUN-UP REF: A. ABUJA 2030 ¶B. ABUJA 2001 LAGOS 00000449 001.4 OF 002 Classified By: CG Donna M. Blair; Reasons Sections 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A November 13 court dismissal of a suit by self-styled "governor-in-waiting" Andy Uba has seemingly cleared the path for the February 6, 2010, election to occur as planned. Incumbent Governor Peter Obi of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) faces challenges from the 26 other parties (many minor) that will contest. Obi's main competition will likely come from former Governor Chris Ngige of the Action Congress and Senator Uche Ekwunife, who wants to become Nigeria's first female governor. Nigeria's ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) remains in disarray over its candidate in Anambra, as the national PDP wants former Central Bank Governor Charles Soludo but the state PDP does not. Expect the PDP, however, to become a force and key challenger to Obi come February 6. Anambra residents are starting to focus on this important election, which could serve as a preview of Nigeria's nationwide 2011 elections. END SUMMARY. -------------- UBA STRIKES OUT -------------- ¶2. (C) A federal Appeals Court in Enugu on November 13 dismissed former Governor Andy Uba's application that had urged the court to declare him the next governor of Anambra state, and swear him in accordingly. Uba based his suit on his claim of victory in the controversial April 14, 2007, special election there. This ruling of the Appeals Court against Uba has now put to rest concerns that the February 6, 2010, gubernatorial election in Anambra would be postponed or even cancelled (which might have occurred had Uba been successful in his appeal),and the campaign is underway in earnest. ¶3. (C) Uba's case illustrates the confusing, even tortuous, spectacle of Nigerian electoral politics, complete with its sub-plots, legal parrying, and lack of transparency. Gubernatorial elections occurred in all 36 Nigerian states, including Anambra, on April 14, 2003. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared then PDP candidate Chris Ngige as the victor over his closest rival, Peter Obi of the APGA, and took office as Anambra Governor on May 29, 2003. Obi then challenged in court Ngige's election, and their protracted legal row lasted three years. A federal Appeals Court ultimately declared Obi as the rightful winner of the 2003 election in March 2006, and ordered Ngige to vacate office immediately. Obi took office as governor on March 17, 2006, but his inauguration triggered a second court challenge about the length of his tenure. ¶4. (C) Foes argued that Obi should only serve the remainder of Ngige's four-year tenure. Backers insisted he must have a full four-year term in line with constitutional provisions. The INEC, siding with the first assertion, conducted a new gubernatorial election in April 2007, while Obi's appeal to define his tenure after barely a year in office remained before the Supreme ourt. Andy Uba won the special April 14, 2007, vote, and Obi had to vacate so that Uba could be sworn in as Anambra Governor on May 29, 2007. The upreme Court intervened, just 17 days after Uba's inauguration, that Obi's gubernatorial tenure should expire in March 2010. The Court ordered Uba to quit the governor's chair and allow Obi to resume his term of office. The Supreme Court took aim at INEC too "for conducting a governorship election to an office that is not vacant," and described Uba's dubious election as "an exercise in futility." Uba filed many legal cases since his June 2007 removal, urging the courts to declare him as "a governor-in-waiting," having "won" the April 14, 2007, election, notwithstanding the Supreme Court ruling on Obi's tenure. Andy Uba seems to have struck out, given his November 13 Enugu setback. -------------- PDP POWER PLAY PROCEEDS -------------- LAGOS 00000449 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (C) PDP factions continued the week of November 16 with their own machinations and bickering, now that the pre-election ferment is well-advanced in Anambra. An Abuja High Court seemingly reinstated former Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Charles Soludo as the PDP gubernatorial candidate in Anambra State. Presiding Judge Danlami Senchi on November 16 dismissed an application by four aggrieved governship aspirants of the PDP in their bid to bar Soludo. He also reversed his October 23 restraining order that had blocked Soludo's candidacy, claiming he lacked jurisdiction as this matter involved purely an internal PDP affair. ¶6. (C) These other contenders still claim that the PDP National Working Committee had erred when it hand-picked Soludo as the party's Anambra nominee, while allegedly ditching due process. The unsuccessful aspirants have now appealed to the federal High Court to overturn this Abuja court ruling and bar INEC from recognizing Soludo as the PDP's legitimate candidate in Anambra. Furthermore, Afam Ilunioh of the Anambra State PDP Executive Council told Lagos PolSpec November 19 that his group "supports the four aggrieved aspirants, and would not relent until the PDP leadership accedes to its demand." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) INEC indicates that 27 political parties (a handful of serious contenders, with the rest small factions) have filed the papers with the INEC to take part in the Anambra election. Such registrations of numerous candidates portends considerable political action in a small state that is home to five million residents. Now Action Congress candidate Chris Ngige and Senator Uche Ekwunife of the Progressive Peoples Alliance, each ex-PDP "escapees" themselves, look to mount strong challenges to Governor Obi's incumbency in the state capital of Awka. So as 26 other parties march on in advance of February 6, the PDP's struggle for and in Anambra continues, while a "laissez-faire" INEC also waits to see what comes next. At some point, many expect that the PDP will resolve its internal disputes to field a strong contender to face Obi for the Anambra prize. The U.S. Mission has already submitted its request to INEC for accreditation of a handful of personnel to monitor the Anambra election processes. END COMMENT. BLAIR