NIGERIA: PDP BEGINS PUSH FOR SOUTH EAST IN 2011

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000264 SIPDIS BAGHDAD FOR MCCULLOUGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PDP BEGINS PUSH FOR SOUTH EAST IN 2011 REF: ABUJA 845 Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL DONNA BLAIR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. Summary: (C) Political maneuvering in advance of the 2011 national elections has begun in the South East political zone. A Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) official told POLOFF on June 8 that the party is focusing on recapturing the governorships of Imo and Anambra States. The Imo State governor, currently a member of the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) is reportedly considering rejoining the ruling PDP, which controls the Imo state legislature. However, his political godfather, a former governor and PPA founder, may be holding him back. In Anambra state, the PDP is split between rival factions. Businessman Chris Uba,s faction has gained the upper hand, but a PDP official believes the national party will need to intervene and settle the dispute. Opposition parties in the South East will have a hard time overcoming the vast financial and organizational resources of the PDP. End Summary. Strengthening the PDP in the South East -------------- ¶2. (C) As the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) gears up for the 2011 elections in the South East, it appears to be focusing its efforts on recapturing the governorships in Imo and Anambra states in order to reassert its power in the region. The Deputy Speaker of the Anambra State House of Assembly D.B. Afam Obi (PDP),told POLOFF on June 8 that the PDP wants to recapture the governorships of Imo and Anambra states because they are the only states in which the legislature is entirely PDP, yet the governors are from opposition parties. Afam Obi claimed this is due to discrepancies in the electoral process and the PDP believes that it should have won the governorship in both cases. Upon reclaiming these states, the PDP will reassert itself as the chief political party in the South East, Obi explained. ¶3. (SBU) While the legislatures in Imo and Anambra states are comprised entirely of PDP members, the governors are in fact from opposition parties; Governor Ikedi Ohakim of Imo is a Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) member while Governor Peter Obi of Anambra is All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). (Note: The Enugu and Ebonyi state governors are both PDP, with majority PDP legislatures. Abia state's governor is PPA, with a majority PPA legislature. The PPA was formed by former Governor Orji Kalu of Abia State when he broke away from the PDP after clashing with the PDP,s national secretariat under former President Obasanjo. End note.) Imo State Governor to Switch Parties? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Media reports suggest Imo State Governor Ohakim may switch parties and join the PDP. Although elected to office as PPA member, he has maintained a strong relationship with the state,s PDP-only House of Assembly. The PDP has publicly lauded the governor,s achievements and encouraged him to switch his party affiliation to PDP. Local media speculates that Ohakim only remains with the PPA because he was elected with the support and financial backing of former Abia Governor, and political "godfather", Orji Kalu. Internal PDP Conflicts Weaken Party in Anambra -------------- - ¶4. (C) Since the 2007 election, the Anambra state PDP has suffered from an ongoing conflict over party leadership. Most recently, a court order gave businessman Chris Uba,s faction of the party control over the state PDP secretariat (Note: Chris Uba is political godfather to former Governor Chris Ngige and brother to former Governor Andy Uba. End note.) Afam Obi told POLOFF that Uba,s control of the party excludes about 30 members of the State House of Assembly, as well as other PDP politicians who do not support his leadership. Afam Obi believes that until the national leadership of the PDP intervenes to resolve the differences between the factions in Anambra, there can be no progress in the regional unification of the PDP. He noted that it is LAGOS 00000264 002 OF 002 impossible to campaign for the state gubernatorial election scheduled for early 2010 until these differences are settled. (Note: Anambra State holds off cycle election for governor. End Note.) ¶6. (C) Comment: Like in the South West, the PDP is starting early to assert its control over state politics in preparation for the 2011 national election. Fortified by the vast resources of prominent businessmen like Chris Uba, the PDP is unlikely to face much resistance from smaller opposition parties. Its only considerable regional opposition comes from Orji Kalu,s PPA, and the resources of his party pale in comparison to the PDP. End Comment. ¶7. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Abuja. BLAIR