NIGERIA: JTF, MILITANTS BELIEVED PREPARING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000239 SIPDIS DOE FOR GPERSON, CHAYLOCK E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINS MOPS EPET NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: JTF, MILITANTS BELIEVED PREPARING FOR WIDER CONFLICT REF: LAGOS 230 Classified By: Consul General Donna M. Blair for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D ) ¶1. (C) Summary: Industry and security contacts operating in the Niger Delta report that the JTF may be preparing to expand its campaign against militants, while militants are leaving their camps and taking refuge in more populated villages and cities to avoid being targeted. A oil company security contact reports that JTF is planning to move against a militant leader in Bayelsa State. A Chevron oil pipeline in the Warri South Local Government Area (LGA),Delta State was attacked on the evening of May 24 disrupting oil flow to the Escravos export facility. Chevron says 100,000 barrels of oil will be shut-in as a result of the attack, but Chevron Managing Director (MD) told the Ambassador on May 26 that they are able to fix the pipeline and it could be back up in 12 days, stressing this timeline was close hold because a leak could give militants information about where to attack next. The MD also told the Ambassador that 300 expatriate staff in Escravos are safe and are in a "stand fast" mode until further notice. Some civil society contacts continue to report a significant humanitarian crisis in the Gbaramutu kingdom as a result of the JTF attack on Tompolo, but credible verification of actual civilian casualties has been difficult to obtain. Other civil society contacts claim that the JTF had cordoned off the area, barred the use of speedboats in the creeks, and is not permitting humanitarian supplies, aid workers or journalists to enter the kingdom of Gbaramutu. One contact reports the GON may be seeking a dialogue with Ijaw leaders. The Mission is seeking to verify humanitarian issues and IDP numbers through both our international and local partners and the Nigerian Emergency Management Agency, which is the only entity the GON is allowing into the affected area. End Summary. JTF and Militant Actions -------------- ¶2. (C) Chevron confirms that the Abiteye pipeline in the Warri South LGA, Delta State was attacked on the evening of May 24. As a result, the 12-inch trunk pipeline that leads from Chevron's oil fields to the Escravos oil export terminal was taken off-line. In a public statement Chevron said it will shut in 100,000 barrels of oil. Chevron Managing Director told the Ambassador on May 26 that they are able to fix the pipeline and it could be back up in 12 days, but he stressed that this timeline was close hold because a leak could give militants information about where to attack next. He also told the Ambassador that 300 expatriate staff in Escravos are safe and are in a "stand fast" mode until further notice. Executives with US company Hercules Offshore that provides lift boat support to Chevron's operations throughout the Niger Delta report that Chevron has ordered a halt to all movement in and around the oil and gas facility and associated oil fields. River-borne supply convoys from Warri to Escravos have been suspended. Warri-based oil field service companies as well as Chevron's MD report however, that the city of Warri is largely quiet and there is no evidence of ongoing military operations. Ambassador and Mission team just returned from Port Harcourt, Rivers State and all was quiet (septel). Oil service contractors based in Port Harcourt report the same. ¶3. (C) RSO OSAC and Pol/Econ contacts say that militants across the Niger Delta are leaving their camps to avoid becoming the target of further JTF attacks. RSO OSAC sources believe militants are moving to cities and other populated areas in an effort to escape the JTF. ExxonMobil's security officer told Econoff on May 24 that he had indications the JTF was preparing to expand its operations to other militant groups and other areas of the Niger Delta. On May 26, the same contact reported that his JTF contacts say Bayelsa State will be the next area of concentration, with the JTF planning to attack militant leader Boyloaf's "camp three." Also, he said that on May 25 a Total near offshore oil platform near Akwa Ibom State was briefly fired upon by unknown assailants. No one was injured in the incident and it was unclear LAGOS 00000239 002 OF 002 whether it was related to the situation in Delta State or the result of criminal-pirate activity common to the area. ExxonMobil's Managing Director has said his company's operations continue as normal. Humanitarian Situation in Gbaramutu -------------- ¶4. (C) Anniko O. Briggs, AKA Cynthia White, told Lagos CG, RSO, and Econoff on May 24 that 50,000 people in the Gbaramutu kingdom (located between Warri and Escravos in Delta State and the base of operations for militant leader Tompolo's as well as significant oil and gas activity) have been affected by the JTF attack on Tompolo. Briggs, using the name Cynthia White, had been a self-declared MEND spokesperson frequently quoted in the local press, although she had been inactive for some time before the latest outbreak of violence. (Comment: Briggs was referred to RSO by a Bayelsa-based, Canadian citizen contact with extensive experience working with NGOs in the state. Although the Canadian contact is considered very credible, Mission officers had never met Briggs prior to this encounter and cannot confirm her bona fides. Given that Briggs may be associated with MEND, we need to view her comments in that light as it would be to the benefit of MEND elements to have highly exaggerated reports of civilian casualties. End Comment.) She claimed JTF boats are blocking the rivers and creeks leading from Warri to Gbaramutu, preventing humanitarian supplies, aid workers as well as journalists from entering the area. Briggs says thousands of residents are without food, clean water, and medical supplies and many have fled their homes and hidden in nearby mangrove swamps. She alleged that the JTF soldiers are burning people in their homes as they go through the villages searching for Tompolo. She claimed to have been in direct contact with people in Gbaramutu over the past few days, but that contact had been cutoff as presumably residents' mobile phones ran out of battery power. When asked about the specific causes of the JTF assault on Tompolo, Briggs denied that the hijacking of two ships on May 13 was the primary motive. Rather she believed it was an operation the JTF had been planning to execute for months. According to Briggs, details of the GON's intention to attack were leaked to the Nigeria political website Saharareporters.com weeks before the actual attack on Tompolo took place. ¶5. (C) Some Nigerian press accounts put the number of civilian casualties in Gbaramutu at 3,000, however a team from the International Committee of the Red Cross sent to Delta State to investigate reported largely empty hospitals and limited destruction of noncombatant's property. The Mission has been unable to independently confirm the number of civilian casualties in Gbaramutu, but believes the press reports to be highly exaggerated. In a May 22 conversation with the Ambassador, Rivers State Governor said that if casualties and IDP numbers were as high as the press claimed, he would be making a lot more public noise about the JTF attacks. ¶6. (C) Mulade Sheriff a former IVLP participant and President of the Gbaramutu Youth Council told Polspec on May 22 that thousands have fled their villages as the JTF goes house to house searching for Tompolo. In a follow up conversation on May 26, Sheriff said the JTF had barred speedboats from operating on the waterways in Gbaramutu, nominally to prevent the movement of militants. In practice, Sheriff said, this would have a devastating impact on local residents, as much of the civilian movement in the area is done using speedboats donated to local communities by oil companies and state governments. Sheriff also reported that GON is now seeking a dialogue with Ijaw leaders, although he did not offer any specifics on time, location, or with whom exactly the GON sought to meet. (Note: Well-known Ijaw leader Chief Edwin Clark is traveling out of Nigeria. End Note.) BLAIR