NIGERIA: EKITI STATE RERUNS: VOTERS WILLING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000211 SIPDIS BAGHDAD FOR MCCULLOUGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: EKITI STATE RERUNS: VOTERS WILLING TO FIGHT TO EXERCISE THEIR RIGHTS REF: A. LAGOS 193 ¶B. LAGOS 163 ¶C. LAGOS 112 Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL DONNA BLAIR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Throughout the South West area, civil society organizations, political parties and political leaders of every stripe are focused on Ekiti State as it prepares for the April 25 gubernatorial rerun elections in 10 Local Government Areas (LGAs). The potential for violence (see reftels) continues to be high, whether started by the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP),or by Action Congress (AC - the leading opposition party in the South West) or by voters as a reaction to suspected vote rigging. Civil society organizations are prepared to monitor every polling station, and have made suggestions to INEC on how best to avoid violence. However, there is widespread concern that, should rigging occur or appear to occur, voters may clash with police. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On an April 20-22 trip to Oyo and Osun States, Poloff met with political and civil society contacts, all of whom were focused on the Ekiti State gubernatorial reruns scheduled for Saturday, April 25. Contacts reported unanimously that the outcome of this election will be a turning point in South West politics if the AC is able to prevail. Possible Violence: Pre-emptive or Reactionary? -------------- - ¶3. (C) Moshuud Erubami, Director of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG),which is heading a coalition of 19 civil society organizations, told Poloff on April 21 that he expects that there will be some violence in the Ekiti reruns. He stated that in the past, most violence during elections has been started by supporters of the PDP. Erubami anticipates some clashes between AC and PDP supporters. Moreover, he believes that if police fail to do their jobs and protect polling stations from those trying to manipulate ballots, then AC voters may become aggressive with police. ¶4. (C) While the Federal Government (FG) first stated that it would not deploy troops to Ekiti, but according to April 24 press reports, has done an about face, the AC and civil society groups remain concerned about military intervention. On April 24, the media reported that on April 23, two vans of soldiers were spotted in Ekiti's capital, Ado-Ekiti. While the PDP has publicly requested that the FG send in the military to maintain order, the AC has continuously opposed the contention that troops are necessary. The Ekiti office of the Independent National Electoral Commission publicly affirmed on April 22 that the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) can maintain order during the elections. According to Bisi Akande, National Chairman of Action Congress, with whom Poloff met on April 21 in Ibadan, the deployment of federal troops would compromise electoral officials and the military will suppress non-PDP voters. April 22, media reports claimed INEC had requested the deployment of troops. However, both Erubami and Abiodun Oyeleye, a human rights activist in Ado-Ekiti, told Poloff April 23 that they had been present at the April 22 meeting with INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu, and that there had been no such request. They claimed that media had taken Iwu's words out of context and sensationalized them. ¶5. (C) Akande asserted that the AC has no intention to use violence, but said that he had obtained tapes of Governor of neighboring Osun State Oyinlola (PDP) promising to provide PDP LGA leaders with uniforms and weapons to impersonate military officers. Akande says he had delivered those tapes to the Office of the President. However, Femi Adelegan, Chief Private Secretary to Governor Oyinlola, told Poloff during an April 22 meeting in Oshogbo that Oyinlola is a 'peace-loving guy' and that the tapes are fraudulent and an attempt by the AC to incite violence. ¶6. (C) There are also concerns that AC supporters may resort LAGOS 00000211 002 OF 003 to violence to ensure that their right to a free and fair election is upheld. Gbenga Awosode, the immediate past president of the Committee for the Defense of Human Rights, told Poloff on April 21 in Ibadan that those who make peaceful change impossible are inviting violence. He predicts that because there is a strong societal push for change, it is virtually inevitable that there will be clashes. Awosode explained that if it appears that the PDP is rigging the elections, that they will be met with resistance by the AC. Erubami expressed the same concern: while AC voters have not been known to use violence in the past, during this election they are determined to fight for their right to go to the polls and have their votes counted. TMG Suggests Ways to Avoid Violence -------------- ¶7. (C) On April 14-17, TMG conducted a survey of all 64 wards where the reruns will be held to inspect the polling station and determine the potential for violence. At that time, TMG did not identify any ongoing violent or coercive behavior. However, to diminish the potential for disturbances on the day of the election, the coalition of civil society organizations, Civil Society Monitoring Group (CSMG),has presented recommendations to the Ekiti INEC Chairman, Chief Olusola Adebayo. These recommendations included restricting Nigerian Police Officers from being inside the polling stations and potentially interfering with ballots. TMG instead advised that police remain outside the stations and ensure that large crowds do not congregate after voting, which could result in clashes between party members. CSMG will have at least one observer at each of the 482 polling stations who will monitor the actions of police officers. CSMG also recommended that INEC ensure that sufficient vehicles be available to pick up ballot boxes from the stations so that police do not escort the box in a vehicle provided by one of the political parties, as has happened in the past in elections in which massive rigging took place. CSMG also recommended that the results be delivered first to civil society observers, secondly to the Nigerian Police Force, and finally, to the political parties. Erubami stated that this would ensure transparency in the announcement of results and allow the police to be prepared for any violence that might follow the announcement of results to the parties. Widespread Support for Fayemi -------------- ¶8. (C) Throughout meetings with civil society leaders, even those not affiliated with the AC, Poloff heard widespread support for the AC gubernatorial candidate Kayode Fayemi. Awosode described Fayemi as the best representative of progressives in the South West, and said all eyes are on him because he symbolizes anti-exploitation. Afenifere Renewal Group members (a progressive arm of the Afenifere socio-political Yoruba organization),including Akande, and Kola Olabisi, managing editor for the progressive Osun Defender, told Poloff on April 22 that Fayemi,s experience as a civil society leader makes him particularly well suited to appeal to progressive-minded Yorubas in re-installing their original social democratic values (Ref C). Fayemi,s supporters include newly installed Governor Mimiko of Ondo State of the Labour Party, who is currently campaigning for the AC in Ekiti. ¶9. (C) Comment: While activists hope that the Ekiti State rerun will be free and fair, the PDP appears determined to hold on to power in Ekiti. The active participation of civil society groups and their campaigns to inform voters of their rights may influence the electorate to protect their vote and thus lead to violent reactions if there appears to be any compromise. The media has already reported the likelihood of vote rigging and even more sensationalist reports are likely to spread on the day of the elections. Whether the outcome of the voting is for AC or PDP, there is likely to be a violent reaction by supporters of the losing party. End Comment. LAGOS 00000211 003 OF 003 ¶10. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Abuja. BLAIR