NIGERIA: LEADING NIGER DELTA ACTIVIST BRIEFS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 LAGOS 000191 SIPDIS STATE PASS NSC E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PM EPET ECON KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: LEADING NIGER DELTA ACTIVIST BRIEFS AMBASSADOR ON HIS VISION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGER DELTA REF: A. ABUJA 601 ¶B. ABUJA 493 ¶C. ABUJA 310 ¶D. LAGOS 074 ¶E. LAGOS 014 ¶F. 08 LAGOS 509 ¶G. 08 ABUJA 1989 ¶H. 08 ABUJA 1951 ¶I. 08 ABUJA 1952 Classified By: Acting Consul General Helen C. Hudson for Reasons 1.4 (B ,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Patrick Utomi, Director of the Center for Applied Economics at the Lagos Business School (LBS) and 2007 presidential candidate of the African Democratic Party (ADP), and originally from Delta State, told Ambassador, while she was in Lagos on March 23, that he is working, as Chair of the United Niger Delta Energy, Development, Security Strategy (UNDEDSS) group and Chair of the South-South Economic Summit to resolve the Niger Delta crisis. He said former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke met with President Yar'Adua to gauge his response to a proposed UNDEDSS plan of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) and amnesty for Niger Delta militants (Note: In Nigeria, the term "militant" is applied to most armed groups in the Niger Delta, whether they are politically motivated or not. While many such groups were formed by corrupt politicians to intimidate their rivals, most now have no political agenda. End Note); the President was "OK with it", and suggested a follow on meeting, but he may change his mind as others weighed in, Utomi implied. The South-South Economic Summit, to be held in Tinapa, Cross River State on April 22-25, will focus on issues that bear on economic growth and integration of the region, including how best to support agriculture in the region; how to link the South-South states by rail and road to a South-South deepwater port; how best to create employment through local content, with emphasis on the Brazil model; and how best to encourage the installation of gas gathering infrastructure as a way to promote the development of that industry. International experts, including U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, have been invited to advise the Governors on policies, Utomi told Pol-Econ Chief in conversations February 6 and March 17. ¶2. (C) Utomi sees the Gulf of Guinea Energy Security Strategy (GGESS) as a viable framework for engaging international partners on the Niger Delta, although he �A;believes it does not place sufficient emphasis on development. He thinks the Ministry of the Niger Delta would be the best government entity to house the GGESS mechanism, and that Minister for the Niger Delta Ufot Ekaette's experience is sufficiently deep and broad to allow him to drive GGESS, if he can be persuaded to take ownership of it. In reply, the Ambassador told Utomi that, without a political framework, development will not take place, and it will be difficult for the United States and other development partners to know where to be supportive. Ambassador stressed that the U.S. would not be out in front on Niger Delta issues, noted that we had also provided to the GON and the new Niger Delta Minister ways that we can be supportive since July 2008. (In conversations with Utomi is well placed to act as an honest broker of the Niger Delta crisis, and has taken some first steps, identifying positions on key issues and building coalitions toward that end. Nonetheless, he faces an uphill battle against the powerful kleptocrats in government and elsewhere who benefit directly from the turmoil that cloaks theft of oil and scandalous failures of development in the Niger Delta. End Summary. ¶3. (C) Ambassador met March 23 in Lagos with Patrick Utomi, Director of the Center for Applied Economics, Lagos Business School and 2007 presidential candidate of the African Democratic Party. Ambassador noted that the U.S. Government cannot be out in front on the issue of the Niger Delta but that the United States wants to be supportive of efforts to resolve the challenges in the region and has offered a number of things in this regard since last July. She invited Utomi's views on the Niger Delta situation, including prospects for disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR),amnesty LAGOS 00000191 002 OF 005 and economic development. ¶4. (C) Utomi replied that his focus is national and his goal to move Nigeria in the right direction; resolving the Niger Delta crisis is an essential element of that overall plan. Utomi chairs the United Niger Delta Energy, Development, Security Strategy (UNDEDSS) group which brings together the diverse Niger Delta ethnic and civil society groups to influence policy. He believes that the young men of the Niger Delta are exploited by criminal elements who profit from their situation. Utomi is seeking consensus, in the interests of global energy security, that the Niger Delta crisis should be solved, so that these young men can reenter society, which would leave the Nigerian Government free to move against remaining purely criminal elements. (Note: On March 17, in a meeting with Pol-Econ Chief, Utomi said that there is a need to take action while the current governors are "slightly less involved" in supporting armed youths than were their predecessors, and before the looming 2011 elections are in full swing. End Note) ¶5. (C) Utomi works with a small group of Niger Delta businessmen, including former Cross Rivers Governor Donald Duke; Albert Okunaba, Managing Director of the BGL stock brokerage firm; Tony Nyam, the former Lieutenant Colonel who was involved in a coup against former military President Ibrahim Badamosa Babangida (IBB),and Tony Uranta (Ref E, Septel.) Duke met March 19 with the President to share the outlines of a proposed disarmament and rehabilitation plan and to get his initial reaction. The President "was OK with the proposal," Utomi said, and suggested a follow-on meeting this week or next with a larger group. However, Utomi cautioned, the President virtually always agrees to new proposals in an initial meeting, then changes his mind as others weigh in. In addition, Utomi met last week with the Minister of the Niger Delta, who said he wants to reduce the vulnerability of the people of the Niger Delta through economic development. The Minister told Utomi that he is considering creating short-term employment opportunities, including as guards in public institutions, for youths who have given up militancy or who never took up arms. In the medium and long term, vocational training programs will be needed to provide youths with skills suitable for employment in the oil and other sectors. Utomi is in close contact with the Minister of State for the Niger Delta as well. ¶6. (C) In addition, the Governors of the South-South states have appointed Utomi Chairman of a commission to promote the economic integration of the South-South states. (Ref F) To achieve the goal of economic integration of the region, an Economic Summit is planned for April 22-25 in the Tinapa complex of Cross River State. Invited to the summit will be experts who can advise on policies, including on vocational education and governance issues. The Minister for the Niger Delta will attend the summit, as will the Vice President. (Note: In meetings with Pol-Econ Chief on March 17 and February 6, Utomi said that the Summit would also focus on what policies will foster development of agriculture in the region, on local content as a way to create employment, with emphasis on the Brazil model; on how best to encourage the installation of gas gathering infrastructure as a way to promote the development of that industry; and how to link the South-South states by rail and road to a South-South deepwater port; following the summit, the Governors will work to promote those policies. End Note) Outside the Delta, No Urgency to Solve Crisis -------------- ¶7. (C) Outside of the Niger Delta itself, Utomi perceives no urgency to solve the problem, mainly because people profit from the crisis. To try to overcome this selfishness and bureaucratic inertia, Utomi has engaged a number of persons who have influence with the President as a way to stimulate new thinking about the issue. Among those Utomi has met with are M.D. Yusuf, former Inspector General of Police who is close to the President; Bamanga Tukur, formerly President of the African Business Roundtable and Chairman of the Nigerian Ports Authority, and others. LAGOS 00000191 003 OF 005 ¶8. (C) Ambassador told Utomi that, in a recent meeting she had with the Minister of the Niger Delta, Ufot Ekaette, he had proposed an international donor's conference as a way forward on the Niger Delta. (Ref B) However, the Ambassador questioned the creation of a new framework when the Gulf of Guinea Energy Security Strategy (GGESS) already provides a viable forum in which all stakeholders participate. Although the Minister was initially unfamiliar with details of the GGESS process, he has since been provided with the background including the minutes of the last GGESS meeting in Abuja in March 2008. In the same meeting, Ekaette noted that an interministerial meeting would be held March 30 to determine which Ministry should take over administration of the GGESS process from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. Utomi sees GGESS as viable, although in his view, it does not place sufficient emphasis on development, one of the reasons UNDEDSS was founded. Fragmentation of leadership in the energy sector between Lukman, Egbogah and Ajumogobia (Note: Minister for Petroleum Resources, Special Advisor to the President on Petroleum Matters and Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, respectively) makes the oil-related ministries an unsuitable home for the process. Hopefully, Utomi said, GGESS will land in the Ministry of the Niger Delta, where the Minister, Ufot Ekaette, has the depth and breadth to guide the process, if he can be persuaded to take ownership of it. Ambassador suggested that the Economic Summit in Tinapa might present a good opportunity to emphasize that the GGESS framework exists. What Political Framework for a Niger Delta Solution? -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Asked what type of political framework he envisioned for a solution to the Niger Delta crisis, Utomi responded that he believes once real prospects for development are offered, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) will be possible. There will have to be some incentive to persuade militants to turn in their guns, Utomi said, but that incentive need not be money. Once the arms are mopped up, and militants are in training camps to learn new skills, the police can go in and clean out the remaining criminal elements. The youths in the creeks will abandon the struggle in favor of development, Utomi said, and will sign a cessation of conflict agreement. (Note: Utomi, who spoke at the February 16 Yenagoa conference at which the Ijaw Youth Council "took back the Niger Delta struggle" from criminals by issuing a pledge to "close the camps" within 90 days (Ref D),told Pol-Econ Chief February 17 that the youths trust him because they know nothing he does will be for his personal gain. End Note) Amnesty is necessary because there are key militants who fear prosecution, especially in light of Henry Okah's secret trial, Utomi said. For example, Ateke Tom has pledged to sign a peace accord on the condition he is granted amnesty. However, the Federal Government has not reacted to the amnesty proposal, Utomi said. (Note: The President mentioned amnesty publicly as an option if groups willingly lay down arms in a People's Democratic Party (PDP) national meeting April 6, Ref A. End Note) When Duke presented the issue of amnesty to the President as part of the overall proposal, he agreed, but in the larger meeting it is not clear what the President will do, Utomi warned. ¶10. (C) In response, the Ambassador told Utomi that, without a political framework that has the support of stakeholders, it will be difficult for the United States and other development partners to know where to be supportive. Development will not take place without security, and as a result, a political settlement must be reached first. The U.S. Government has made a number of offers, outlined in the Framework for Partnership book, to the Government of Nigeria on security. At the same time, the United States is working on development projects in the Niger Delta; the projects are conducted through implementing local partners and are small in scale so as not to become a target. The Ambassador expressed the hope that, once GGESS is assigned to a Ministry, the Minister will engage through GGESS on DDR and amnesty, so that the partners have details. She also expressed the hope that the Nigerian Government will reach out to entities, such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM),which have experience in DDR, so that the LAGOS 00000191 004 OF 005 sequencing of elements of any DDR plan, crucial to its success, are correct. April 22-25 Economic Summit -------------- ¶11. (U) Utomi asked Ambassador if she would be able to attend the Summit. Utomi envisions a private session, with no press, which all the governors would attend. Utomi has invited Richard Joseph, who is John Evans Professor of Political Science at Northwestern University, to attend and to talk about his ideas. (Note: Utomi has also invited U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack to attend the conference. End Note) The Ambassador replied that it is unlikely she would be able to attend, as this conference conflicts with a US-ECOWAS event for the Africom Center for Strategic Studies. In addition, she noted, expectations would be high that her presence would signal the imminent arrival of U.S. investors in the South-South states. However, there is no enabling security environment in most states, and money will not flow to an insecure environment, she said. Equally importantly, on top of the fragile security environment, many of the states do not respect the sanctity of contracts; U.S. investors' experiences in Akwa Ibom and other states make it hard for development partners to encourage their companies to come in. Akwa Ibom is now as difficult to travel in as the three conflict-prone Niger Delta states, and as a result, she would not have a positive story to tell at the Summit. Utomi said that the Ambassador's remarks are just what he is hoping she would say at the summit; he is looking for reinforcement for what he has been telling the governors. PDP Does Not Want Electoral Reform -------------- ¶12. (C) The Ambassador then turned the conversation to national politics and the 2100 elections. The Federal Government doesn't want electoral reform, Utomi said; the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) doesn't think it could win a real election in 2011 and will need again to manipulate the process, so they are planning to delay reforms until after 2011. Events in Madagascar and other countries make them nervous as well. As a result, it was a recent statement of Utomi's that "every taxpaying adult wants the National Judicial Council to appoint the chair of the Independent Nigerian Election Commission (INEC)" that elicited a warning from the PDP that "people are attempting to destabilize the government via nocturnal meetings," Utomi claimed. Utomi said he based his remarks on survey research conducted by Joe Trippi and Associates in Washington D.C. that showed that 89 percent of Nigerians polled wanted INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu replaced. Utomi doesn't think shifting authority to appoint the INEC chair from the executive to the judicial branch of government requires a constitutional amendment, just legislation by the National Assembly. (Comment: We believe Utomi is not correct about this; clause 154 of the Nigerian constitution clearly gives the President the power to appoint the INEC Chair. End Comment.) Even just replacing Iwu would be helpful, he said. Asked what grade he would put on the Yar'Adua administration's report card, Utomi responded "Awful." Asked if the country is ripe for a coup, Utomi said the military is not the solution; although many people are saying that may be the only way out, they are wrong. ¶13. (C) Comment: Utomi's his track record as Director of the Center for Applied Economics at the Lagos Business School, his commitment to public service evidenced by his issues-oriented 2007 campaign for the Presidency, the trust both Ijaw youth leaders and the South-South Governors seem to have reposed in him, and his integrity make him potentially well placed to act as an honest broker for the Niger Delta crisis. As the choice of the South-South Governors to lead their attempts to develop the region, Utomi can play a key economic role for the region as well. Despite these credible steps toward resolution of the complex tangle of issues that stand as a barrier to peace in the Niger Delta, Utomi, originally from Delta State, is facing an uphill battle against the powerful kleptocrats in government and elsewhere who benefit directly from the turmoil that cloaks the theft LAGOS 00000191 005 OF 005 of oil and scandalous failures of development in the Niger Delta. HUDSON