NIGERIA: AFENIFERE LEADER CLAIMS INCREASED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000112 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AFENIFERE LEADER CLAIMS INCREASED RELEVANCE IN SOUTH-WEST POLITICS Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL DONNA BLAIR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 27 meeting with Chief Supo Shonibare, Lagos State Chairman of the Yoruba socio-political organization Afenifere, Shonibare explained that Afenifere is playing an increased role as the principal socio-political vehicle to promote social democratic values in the South-West region of Nigeria. Shonibare claims that the time has come for the people to rise up against inactive and corrupt leaders, particularly those of the ruling People,s Democratic Party (PDP) which have had tight control over the region since 2003. The recent cases of the tribunal judgment expelling Governor Olusegun Agagu (PDP) from the governor,s office in Ondo State, as well as the court-mandated re-run for the governorship in selected local government areas (LGAs) in Ekiti State, give Afenifere hope that the PDP hold on the South-West is weakening. Afenifere predicts that it will not be long before Governor Gbenga Daniel of Ogun State abandons the PDP and affiliates himself with other non-PDP governors. End summary. ¶2. (C) On February 27, Poloff met with Chief Supo Shonibare, Lagos State Chairman of Afenifere, and long-time contact of the Pol-Econ section. Shonibare explained that since Afenifere,s emergence in the 1950s, under the leadership of Chief Obafemi Awolowo, it has served as the leading socio-political organization promoting the traditional values of the Yoruba people who are the overwhelming majority in the South-West region of Nigeria. The Yoruba have long-standing values similar to those of Western social democrats, he claimed, willing to criticize their leaders and call for increased development and quality of life. Shonibare observed that the South-West was the first region of Nigeria to provide free education for all citizens, and the citizens, desire to see more welfare projects remains despite the high levels of corruption permeating the political leadership, the worst offenders being some of the People,s Democratic Party (PDP) governors. Is Afenifere Still Relevant? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Shonibare told Poloff that during the 1990s, Afenifere branded itself solely as a social organization to avoid conflict with the military regime. In the 1999 elections, Afenifere became a socio-political organization, taking a leadership role in determining the political direction the region should take. Rather than run for office themselves, Afenifere leaders sought out individuals who were not tainted by corruption and had little experience in politics, Shonibare stated. Afenifere was successful in that the organization,s members won the governorships of all six states of the South-West. Just when the country was beginning to grow as a democracy and re-institute the social democratic values of the South-West, the 2003 elections went in a different direction, he said, and Afenifere was unable to secure positions for its "clean, untainted" candidates. Since this time, the organization has struggled to retake its position as a leading political force, and has been plagued by divisions in the organization. Shonibare described the Afenifere Renewal Group as a break-off, attempting to install younger, more progressive leaders and shed the image of Afenifere as an older, traditional, and irrelevant organization. ¶4. (C) The local press has occasional reports of Afenifere taking public stands in support of, and against, political figures of the South-West. Leaders has been publicly active in lobbying governors, political parties, and traditional rulers, particularly in the changing political landscape created by election tribunals and court decisions in Ondo and Ekiti states. Shonibare said that this increased presence in public life of the Yoruba South-West is intended to gear up for the 2011 election. Afenifere is collecting popular support and "bonding with the social polity" to support candidates who will defend traditional values and overturn the pattern of inaction and corruption that has emerged since the 2003 elections. Afenifere Strengthened by Election Tribunals -------------- LAGOS 00000112 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Shonibare claims that since the 2003 elections, PDP leaders have used the patronage system and public funds to fortify their own resources. He believes that such practices are contrary to South-West and Yoruba culture, and that the PDP will never be successful or able to hold its ground over the long-term in the region. The recent election tribunal in Ondo State, which forced out Olusegun Agagu (PDP) and installed Dr. Segun Mimiko (Labour Party - LP) as governor, as well as the court-mandated re-run for the governorship in selected local government areas (LGAs) in Ekiti State, are seen as opportunities to strengthen Afenifere support in those states. The organization has openly supported the judicial process that put the Labour Party in power in Ondo, and is supporting free and fair elections in Ekiti, hoping that the Action Congress (AC) candidate, Kayode Fayemi, will win. This result would eliminate the PDP,s hold on the majority of states of the South-West, he said. Shonibare Predicts Ogun State Governor to Defect from PDP -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) The Governor of Ogun State, Gbenga Daniel (PDP),was a member of Afenifere and the Alliance for Democracy (AD),the main political party affiliated with Afenifere until 2003. In 2003, Daniel ran as a PDP candidate, and has since been affiliated with that party. Ogun State is considered the center for the PDP in the South, especially since former President Olusegun Obasanjo settled back into Ogun after leaving office, and from where he continues to assert influence over state, PDP, and national politics. The media has reported extensively on conflicts of personality and governance between Governor Daniel and Obasanjo, despite the PDP spokesman,s statements to the contrary in an October 2008 meeting with Poloff. The second term Governor Daniel, who appears popular with his constituents, may leave the PDP within the next two years due to conflicts with PDP leadership and long-standing support for Afenifere ideals, Shonibare predicts, causing a shift the power base in the region and removing support from the PDP that will weaken it in the 2011 elections. Shonibare stated that Afenifere has already privately requested that Daniel leave the PDP and affiliate with another party, presumably the AC. Moving Forward: Which Candidates to Ally With? -------------- -- ¶7. (C) Shonibare conveyed the difficulty that Afenifere has in finding politicians and leaders with whom to ally. He stated that in the South-West, the only options are to join with the "less corrupt" or to recruit untainted new leaders with their own resources to enter the political arena. Afenifere continuously seeks to strengthen relationships with social and political allies, and often looks to use these relationships to strengthen the Afenifere position. Nonetheless, Shonibare stated that Afenifere has drawn a line on dealing with politicians seen to be massively corrupt. He said former governor of Ekiti State Ayo Fayose was an example of a politician so far beyond common corruption and accusations of impropriety that Afenifere would not want to be affiliated with him in any way. He added that while Governor Oyinlola of Osun State has been accused of many similar crimes (suppression of basic freedoms, misuse of government funds),he has not yet reached the level of Fayose,s corruption. ¶8. (C) Comment: With the increasing number of states going non-PDP, Afenifere sees an opportunity to re-emerge as the strongest unified political voice in the South-West. Shonibare and Afenifere appear to be working overtime to build relationships with emerging leaders like Mimiko in Ondo and Fayemi in Ekiti. Shonibare implied that the battle is to regain control from the PDP, and most of Afenifere,s efforts between now and 2011 will be focused on reducing support for the ruling PDP and installing new leaders who are less embedded in the patronage system. Shonibare makes a strong case that new leaders who play less PDP party politics will be able to bring about the social and political reforms that could lead toward real development. ¶9. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Abuja. BLAIR