BYUT-REGIONS CLOSE TO FORMING BROAD COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000950 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: BYUT-REGIONS CLOSE TO FORMING BROAD COALITION REF: KYIV 924 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Robert Scott for reasons 1.4( b,d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) While PM Tymoshenko's BYuT faction and opposition Party of Regions (Regions) have yet to announce their possible broad Rada coalition, Rada contacts from both factions confirmed that negotiations are ongoing and that the two sides are close to inking a deal (Reftel). Rank and file Deputies from both parties were not privy to the details of the agreement or the tenor of the negotiations. The press, however, reported leaked details of the planned constitutional changes and political cooperation envisioned in the potential coalition agreement. A BYuT MP who is part of the negotiating team told us that the broad issues are agreed to -- what remains are technical questions and, more importantly, a continued lack of trust on both sides. End Summary BROAD COALITION: CLOSE, BUT NOT YET A DONE DEAL -------------- -- ¶2. (C) Despite reports that PM Tymoshenko and Regions head Viktor Yanukovych agreed to a broad Rada coalition and constitutional changes, the plenary week that started June 1 has seen no official announcement on the potential coalition. On June 2, Regions MP Dmitro Tabachnyk called for a broad coalition in a speech from the Rada rostrum, saying that only such a coalition could allow the Rada to take the necessary steps to overcome the economic crisis and political malaise affecting Ukraine. ¶3. (C) On June 3 BYuT MP Valeriy Pysarenko, who is involved in the negotiations, told us that media reports were "premature," but that the two sides were closer than they have ever been to making a deal. He suggested that the coalition would not likely be announced this week, but that the two sides could finalize the details and announce the coalition next week. Pysarenko and other contacts across party lines reiterated that a lack of trust between BYuT and Regions and their leadership remained the main stumbling block to finalizing an agreement. BYuT MP Ostap Semarak speculated that not even Tymoshenko could say at this point whether the two sides would be able to reach final agreement. ¶4. (C) OU-PSD faction head Mykola Martynenko said his faction was split over whether to join a potential broad coalition. He told us on June 2 that if the coalition proved that it ;would work for the good of the country, there could be enough votes within OU-PSD to join. If, however, the political marriage between BYuT and Regions served only to carve up the country, there would be little support in his faction to take part. OU-PSD MP Kyrylo Kulikov, a member of the current coalition, said that his faction would not "bless" the Tymoshenko-Yanukovych union with its participation. He said that Tymoshenko would only want OU-PSD along to provide political cover with her base, as a broad coalition with all factions (except the Communists) would be more palatable to "Orange" supporters than a BYuT-Regions coalition. RANK AND FILE MPS IN THE DARK, BUT DETAILS LEAKED TO PRESS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) On June 2 Ukrainska Pravda (UP) reported details of the potential agreement. UP reported BYuT and Regions agreed to constitutional changes to strengthen the prime minister's position, elect a weakened president in the Rada, and extend the current Rada convocation two years to 2014. The two sides reportedly also agreed to move to a two round Rada election format, with the winner of the second round automatically receiving 226 of 450 Rada seats, and to introduce imperative mandate into the parliament, which would allow faction leadership to remove members who do not toe the party line. The new constitution would also include local administrative reform (more power to the Oblasts),judiciary reform, and law enforcement reform. ¶6. (U) Concerning political cooperation, UP reported that BYuT and Regions were negotiating a plan to cooperate through ¶2024. They would agree to work together in parliamentary elections, would split ministry positions, and divide up areas of influence around the country. PM Tymoshenko would reportedly retain her position, with Yanukovych guaranteed two 5-year presidential terms. ¶7. (C) On June 3, BYuT MP Yuriy Poluneev told us that rank and file deputies were not privy to the details of the KYIV 00000950 002 OF 002 potential agreement or the progress made in negotiations. He speculated that perhaps ten people from both sides were intimately involved in the process -- the remaining faction members were getting their information from the press rather than their political leadership. Poluneev said that there was some opposition to the potential coalition within the ByuT faction, but that most MPs would line up behind Tymoshenko, even if they were uncomfortable with an alliance with Regions. Regions MP Vladimir Makeienko told us that the majority of the Regions faction were also left in the dark by their leadership. He said that party leaders told them that they would know details of the agreement when the time was right -- that time had not yet come. YUSHCHENKO MULLS RESIGNATION TO DERAIL COALITION -------------- --- ¶8. (U) On June 2, President Yushchenko said he would "do everything" to prevent presidential elections in the Rada. He said that he was not opposed to a BYuT-Regions coalition per se, but was against "usurpation of power." Yushchenko was rumored to be mulling resignation if the broad coalition was announced -- BYuT and Regions representatives both said they would welcome such a move. Article 103.5 of the constitution requires presidential elections within 90 days of the early termination of a president's term, which would force BYuT and Regions to participate in a presidential election while trying to cooperate on constitutional changes. Ihor Popov, Deputy Head of the Presidential Secretariat, dismissed rumors of a potential Yushchenko resignation, but Yushchenko said he was prepared to pay "a high price" to prevent what he termed an "anti-constitutional coup d'etat." COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Lack of trust remains a key stumbling block to a potential BYuT-Regions coalition, but contacts say that they could potentially reach a deal to unite in the next few days. Tymoshenko could weather a ratings hit from her Orange constituency if the coalition forms and changes the constitution, because she would not have to face voters for five years. She is at risk, however, if the deal falls apart -- especially after details of the political agreement was leaked to the press -- as her base of support could see her attempts to work with Regions as a betrayal. Regions appears to be in a stronger negotiating position as they could benefit from either scenario -- a coalition returns them to power, and a failed coalition could damage Tymoshenko, Yanukovych's primary competition in a direct presidential election. PETTIT