WATCHING MOLDOVA CLOSELY; LITTLE FEAR OF SPILLOVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000634 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2019 TAGS: MD PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: WATCHING MOLDOVA CLOSELY; LITTLE FEAR OF SPILLOVER Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Kyiv continues to closely monitor events in Chisinau, but MFA contacts believe the Communists have weathered the storm and will now be able to consolidate power. The MFA view is that the Communists did win the election, while acknowledging media bias and manipulation of state resources (pension increases, etc.) in the election run-up. Moldova has requested extradition of two purported protest leaders detained in Odesa - a request which Ukraine will slow-roll to let emotions cool before taking any action. Kyiv sees the protests as generational and pitting young urban elites with pro-Romania and pro-EU views against older and poorer supporters of the Communists. Ukrainians are unlikely to stage any similar protests against economic conditions or the current political stalemate according to a recent nationwide poll. End Summary. MFA SEES COMMUNISTS CONSOLIDATING POWER -------------- ¶2. (C) Embassy met on April 10 with MFA Moldova Section Head Ihor Holovchenko to discuss Ukrainian views on the recent Chisinau protests. Holovchenko said that the Communists would move quickly to consolidate power and show that they were fully in control following the protests. In addressing opposition claims that the Communists had stolen votes to get the 60 seats they garnered in the election, Holovchenko noted that exit polls showed the Communists should have received approximately 55 seats, which would have given them the majority in any event. He stressed that Ukraine was aware of media manipulation and use of state resources (pension increases, etc.) by the Communists in the run-up, but that it wasn't sufficient to overturn the election results. He concluded that the Communists would "find a way" to convince one additional MP to join them for the needed 61 votes to elect the President. COMMUNISTS FACE CHOICES -------------- ¶3. (C) Holovchenko indicated that Ukraine would carefully track over the coming months whether the Communists reacted to the protests by moving closer to Moscow or creating channels for engagement with Romania and the EU. Thinking within the MFA was that the absence of an effective protest leader pushing for engagement with the West might incline the Communists to turn towards Moscow. The likelihood of future unrest would increase if no acknowledgment of the protesters' goals was forthcoming, and might be triggered by a local election (for Mayor of Chisinau for example),according to Holovchenko. MOLDOVANS DETAINED; BORDER GUARDS REINFORCED -------------- ¶4. (C) Holovchenko also confirmed press reports that Ukrainian border guards had detained two Moldovans at the Odesa airport in response to arrest warrants issued in Chisinau. Chisinau was claiming the two individuals, one of them a wealthy businessman, were involved in organizing the protests and rioting. Ukraine intended to move slowly on the extradition request in order to "let emotions cool," according to Holovchenko. There has been no public statement from the GOU on the extradition request to date. Interior Minister Lutsenko said publicly on April 9 that he had dispatched Ministry of Interior troops to key border crossings with Molodova to reinforce border guards in what he described as a "routine emergency response." MOLDOVA SCENARIO UNLIKELY IN KYIV -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Ukrainians are unlikely to take their current economic and political grievances to the street, according to Yuriy Bauman, the Deputy Director of local pollsters Image Control. In his company's most recent nationwide focus groups, conducted March 23 to April 3, participants overwhelmingly said that they were not interested in participating in street protests and that demonstrations were not effective in swaying government action. Image Control Director Mariya Poznyak told us that their recent polls showed only single digit support for widespread demonstrations. Party of Regions (Regions) MP and deputy faction leader Volodomyr Makeyenko said that the party was finding it difficult to gather Ukrainians for demonstrations. KYIV 00000634 002 OF 002 He said that Regions was considering postponing future protests because the populace did not seem to want to participate. Regions April 3 demonstration on Kyiv's Independence Square calling for the resignation of the President and Prime Minister gathered 7,000 to 10,000 demonstrators, much less than the 50,000 the party promised, despite widespread reports that organizers paid protesters to attend. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Kyiv continues to monitor Chisinau carefully, but aside from the potential negative impact on the 5 2 process doesn't see any of its equities directly impacted. Recent events in Chisinau and Tblisi have generated an additional focus in Kyiv on whether the potential for unrest exists in Ukraine. The absence of a domestic political spark, such as the Georgia-Russia conflict or election in Moldova, continues to argue against any parallel developments in Ukraine. Polling results and the anemic turnout for the Regions protests indicate that Ukrainians haven't reached the frustration level required to take to the streets. TAYLOR