RADA VOTES TO MOVE UP PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000581

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: RADA VOTES TO MOVE UP PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4(b,d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Rada on April 1 voted overwhelmingly to set
October 25, 2009 as the date for presidential elections.
Previously, a late December 2009 or mid January 2010 election
date had been expected. Amendments to the constitution
adopted after President Yushchenko took office in January
2005 left the door open for the Rada to select the October
date. The President has vowed to challenge parliament's
decision in court. END SUMMARY.


RADA MOVES UP ELECTION DATE
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2. (U) In an unexpected move, the Rada voted April 1 to set
October 25, 2009 as the date for the next presidential
election. The vote was supported by four of the five
parliamentary factions with 401 out of 422 MPs present voting
in favor of the October date. The resolution garnered 174
votes from opposition Party of Regions (Regions),155 votes
from Prime Minister Tymoshenko's bloc (BYuT),27 votes from
the opposition Communist Party, 19 votes from Rada Speaker
Lytvyn's bloc and 26 votes from the pro-coalition Our
Ukraine-People's Self Defense bloc (OU-PSD). One MP each
from Regions, the BYuT and Lytvyn blocs, and 46 MPs from the
fractured OU-PSD bloc did not vote for the resolution.
Previously, December 27, 2009 or January 17, 2010 were
considered the most likely dates for the election. Although
Party of Regions had publicly proposed October 25, 2009 last
fall, numerous MPs and commentators dismissed it as
unrealistic and possibly unconstitutional.


CONSTITUTIONAL UNCERTAINTY
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3. (U) The wrangling over the date for presidential
elections stems from different interpretations of Article 103
of the current constitution and whether amendments enacted
after President Yushchenko assumed the presidency in January
2005 apply to his term in office. Article 85 of the
constitution gives the Rada the right to set presidential
election dates. Supporters of today's vote claim that the
when Yushchenko was elected and inaugurated (January 23,
2005) the constitution then in force set the last Sunday in
October of the president's fifth year in office as the
official election date. They argue that later changes to the
constitution did not grandfather Yushchenko in, and that
October 25, 2009 is the correct date.


4. (U) Constitutional changes that came into effect in 2006
amended Article 103, moving presidential elections to the
last Sunday of the last month of the President's fifth year
in office. The amended article is also open to debate. Some
MPs claim that December 2009 is the last full month of
Yushchenko's term and therefore the election should be
December 27, 2009. Others claim that because Yushchenko was
inaugurated on January 23, 2005, January 2010 is the last
month of his presidency and the election should therefore
take place on January 17, 2010.


REBUKE TO YUSHCHENKO, MOVE TO PREVENT EARLY RADA ELECTION
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5. (C) Observers saw the vote on the October 25 date as a
rebuke to Yushchenko, noting the vote garnered
across-the-board support from the government coalition and
the opposition. Party of Regions MP Nestor Shufrych, who led
the effort to set the October date, told us that every effort
should be made to remove Yushchenko from office as soon as
possible. He criticized the President's handling of the
economy and said that Ukraine cannot wait until spring 2010
for a change of leadership.


6. (C) BYuT MP Valeriy Pysarenko told us that Yushchenko was
an obstacle for the Tymoshenko government and that BYuT would
do whatever it could to get him out of office as soon as it
could. He said that earlier presidential elections were also
better for Tymoshenko's own presidential bid because the
economic crisis was having a negative impact on her poll
numbers. Pysarenko said that the October date would make it
more difficult for Yushchenko to push for a pre-term
parliamentary election because the constitution does not
allow the Rada to be dissolved in the last six months of a
president's term.


7. (C) OU-PSD pro-coalition MP Kyrylo Kulikov told us that

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the legal foundation of the Rada's decision was "dubious,"
but that with over 400 votes in parliament it cannot be
ignored. He said that the primary motivation for the October
date was to check a possible Yushchenko move for pre-term
Rada elections. The resolution will get tied up in the
courts and the election date could easily end up moved to
January 2010, according to Kulikov.


YUSHCHENKO TO MOUNT COURT CHALLENGE
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8. (C) The Presidential Secretariat harshly criticized the
Rada decision as unconstitutional and promised to challenge
the resolution in court. Pysarenko told us that BYuT expects
Yushchenko to appeal the Rada's decision to either the
Administrative Court or Constitutional Court, but that they
are prepared to defend the resolution. Deputy Justice
Minister Koriychuk claimed that the October 25 date is legal
and predicted that the Constitutional Court would rule in the
Rada's favor.


COMMENT
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9. (C) Yushchenko may find it difficult to block the Rada's
decision to hold the presidential election on October 25. It
is rare in Ukraine's fractured political environment to find
such broad support for any measure and underlines the extent
of the opposition to Yushchenko. In addition, the courts, as
they have in the past, may be loath to go against the
political winds.

TAYLOR