RADA COALITION: AS STABLE AS IT WANTS TO BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 000054

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: RADA COALITION: AS STABLE AS IT WANTS TO BE

REF: 08 KYIV 2486

Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor for reasons 1.4(b,d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) As the Rada winds down its session with a final
plenary week that started on January 13, the coalition
appears to be stable, with PM Tymoshenko in control. Rada
Speaker Lytvyn may harbor presidential ambitions, but he is
unlikely to scuttle the coalition in pursuit of the
presidency. Pro-coalition Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense
(OU-PSD) MPs have little choice but to stay with Tymoshenko's
bloc (BYuT),having left President Yushchenko's camp.
Coalition opponents have thus far not mounted a serious
challenge to its validity (Ref A). Rada contacts say that
the coalition will likely last as long as it is useful to
Tymoshenko -- potentially through the upcoming presidential
election season. A Regions call for a vote of no-confidence
in Tymoshenko's government in response to the gas crisis is
yet another political gambit in the run-up to presidential
elections, and is unlikely to gather significant support.
End Summary.

Tymoshenko "Controls Coalition Destiny"
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2. (C) Rada contacts in and out of the coalition told us that
the current coalition of BYuT, Lytvyn bloc and a majority of
OU-PSD MPs is likely to remain stable for as long as
Tymoshenko deems the coalition necessary. Pro-coalition
OU-PSD MP Volodymyr Ariev considered Tymoshenko the
"strongest politician in Ukraine" -- she controls the destiny
of the coalition. BYuT MP Valeriy Pysarenko told us that
BYuT will likely keep the coalition together in its current
format through the presidential election. Pysarenko posited
that early Rada elections would likely be unnecessary, as
after the presidential elections, the coalition would likely
gather support from other MPs looking to gain favor with a
newly-elected Tymoshenko.


3. (C) Political Analyst Ihor Kohut said that the coalition
is neither strong nor weak, but its existence suits most
parties for now because it allows the Rada to work. He told
us that, although the coalition represents a minority of MPs
in the Rada, Tymoshenko can look to either the rump OU-PSD
MPs or the Communists for additional votes which gives the
coalition options. Echoing Pysarenko, Kohut predicted that
the coalition would survive until at least 2010. Regions MP
Nestor Shufrych told us that his party would continue to
speak out against the coalition because they are in
opposition, but that they recognize that the coalition exists
and it is not going anywhere anytime soon. He admitted that,
despite its public rhetoric, the majority of Regions MPs was
not interested in early Rada elections.

Lytvyn Likely to Toe the Line
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4. (C) One potential stumbling block to coalition stability
is Rada Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn's aspirations for higher
office. Rada contacts tell us that he will likely make a run
at the presidency -- all party heads would -- but he would
not do so at the expense of his Speaker's seat by pulling out
of the coalition. BYuT contacts told us that they expect
Lytvyn to run for president, but they do not consider him a
serious contender. They were confident that Lytvyn would not
rock the boat. MP Ariev said Lytvyn knows he cannot win the
presidency, and he wouldn't want to campaign on being the
person who destroyed the coalition and lose his position as
Speaker in the process. Regions MP Vladimir Makeenko
concurred, saying that Lytvyn would likely run a "gentle
campaign" that could set him up for further political favors
in the second round of the election and beyond.

OU-PSD Majority Not Likely to Make Waves...
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5. (C) Ariev told us that OU-PSD's pro-coalition majority is
relatively solid, and would remain with BYuT for the
foreseeable future. He lamented Yushchenko's "hysterical"
reaction in September that resulted in OU-PSD pulling out of
the coalition, and said that rational MPs in OU-PSD know that
it is better to work within a coalition. He suggested that
there was little that could push a majority of OU-PSD to vote
to leave the coalition again. Ariev concluded that, although
the coalition agreement has a bare majority 37 OU-PSD
signatures, it enjoys a "comfortable buffer" in case one or
two MPs decide to quit the coalition. He pointed to the
December 26 vote on the 2009 budget, which garnered 46 OU-PSD
votes out of a total of 72 MPs in the faction.

...Minority Out to Sea
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6. (C) The dwindling pro-Yushchenko portion of OU-PSD remains
divided between Presidential Chief of Staff Baloha's seven
United Center MPs and a small band of Yushchenko loyalists
that have rallied behind former faction head Vyacheslav
Kyrylenko's recently-announced "For Ukraine" OU-PSD
sub-group. Pro-coalition OU-PSD MPs estimated that the group
has no more than 17 supporters, and joked that it should be
renamed "For Yushchenko" because the group's common policy
platform is blind support for their "icon president."


7. (C) Pro-Yushchenko MP Ksenia Lyapina told us that their
group, whom she dubbed the "pro-Ukraine opposition" to the
coalition, are not actively working to thwart the coalition
or bring down the government. She said that her "For
Ukraine" colleagues would be united with the government to
resolve the gas crisis, and would not work with Regions,
which she described as the "anti-Ukraine opposition."

No External Challenges to Coalition, No Serious Challenges to
Government
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8. (SBU) Coalition contacts tell us that no serious challenge
to the coalition, legal or otherwise, has been made, and they
don't expect to see any in the near future. In response to
the ongoing gas crisis, however, Regions head Viktor
Yanukovych and other Regions MPs called for early Rada
elections and for the Rada to initiate a vote of
no-confidence in PM Tymoshenko and her government.


9. (C) Rada contacts, including some Regions MPs, dismissed
the effort as political grandstanding. Pro-Yushchenko OU-PSD
MPs told us they would line up behind the government against
Regions, and Regions MPs said that even they wouldn't have
unanimous support within their faction for a no-confidence
vote. BYuT MPs welcomed a vote of no-confidence, certain
that it would fail, and told us they would do nothing to
block Regions if it made an attempt to put a no-confidence
vote on the agenda before the end of the current session on
January 17.


10. (C) BYuT MP Pysarenko said that even a successful vote
of no-confidence would accomplish little beyond becoming a
part of Yanukovych's presidential campaign stump speech.
Tymoshenko and her government would go into acting status
until the coalition forwarded a new PM candidate for
nomination, an unlikely development from a coalition
controlled by Tymoshenko.

Comment
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11. (C) The current BYuT-led minority coalition will likely
remain intact so as long as Tymoshenko finds it politically
beneficial. The lack of a unified opposition and a fractured
OU-PSD faction strengthens Tymoshenko's hand in the Rada.
Regions has been unable to mount serious opposition to the
coalition or Tymoshenko's government. The pro-Yushchenko
OU-PSD group is wary of working with Regions, and the
Communists have lined up with Tymoshenko when it counts. So
- for the present at least - the chances for the coalition to
remain in power through the December 2009/January 2010
presidential election are good. We can expect more of the
incessant jockeying for position among Tymoshenko,
Yanukovych, and an increasingly-isolated Yushchenko as the
presidential race heats up if the economic and gas crises do
not destroy the political chances of all three.
TAYLOR