A View from the Window: Consular Elements of the Economic

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000466 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/UMB, EEB/OMA, CA/FO, CA/VO NSC FOR KKVIEN USDOC FOR 4231/ITA/OEENIS/NISD/CLUCYCK DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USTR FOR CKLEIN/PBURKHEAD DEPT PLEASE DISTRIBUTE WORLDWIDE E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS EFIN ECON ETRD KFRD XH PL UP SUBJECT: A View from the Window: Consular Elements of the Economic Crisis in Ukraine. //////CORRECTED COPY ////ADDED CIS AND NATO EU COLLECTIVES/// Sensitive but Unclassified. Not for Internet Distribution. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: During the past several months, the Consular Section at Embassy Kyiv has seen changes that reflect the severe downturn in Ukraine's economy. As "economic crisis" became a ubiquitous refrain, the volume of nonimmigrant visa applications dropped noticeably. Fraudulent cases increased as a proportion of total cases, and visa fixers have expanded their reach into the industrial regions of eastern and southern Ukraine. Ukrainian citizens at all levels are feeling the effects of the deteriorating economy, as illustrated by the narratives of visa applicants. If the crisis continues to deepen, increased fraud is likely to continue. The current drop in demand, however, has yet to significantly erode the 36 percent growth in demand that has occurred since FY 2005. End summary. -------------- By the Numbers -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The recent decline in nonimmigrant visa applications at Embassy Kyiv has paralleled a sharp deterioration in Ukraine's overall economy. The Consular Section witnessed a 36 percent drop in total applications during January 2009 as compared to January 2008, and a 43 percent decrease in B1/B2 applications during the same time period, indicating that business travelers and vacationers are curtailing their travel spending. Exchange Visitor applications have dropped precipitously (41 percent) from FY08 YTD to FY09 YTD. In particular, prospective Summer Work and Travel applicants seem to be more cautious about committing to travel plans. (Comment: For the fiscal year-to-date, however, total NIV demand is down only 11 percent from last year and remains almost 37 percent over comparable figures from FY 2005. End Comment.) Demand for other types of visas has remained steady. The decrease in business travel is also evident in a sharp drop in the use of appointment slots available to applicants referred by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Ukraine. In December 2008 and January 2009, these slots went virtually unfilled, in sharp contrast to past high demand for AmCham appointments. 
 ¶3. (SBU) Reports from other foreign missions in Kyiv corroborate our observations of declining visa demand as the initial effect of the economic slump. Poland is a popular destination for Ukrainians, both due to proximity and family ties, yet the Polish Consul General reported that despite Poland's low 3 percent refusal rate, his visa officers have noted a 25 percent decrease in applications from this time last year. He chalked up the decrease to average Ukrainians tightening their belts, stating that "tourist trips are one of the first things to go." Our Canadian counterparts reported a 25 to 30 percent decrease in applicants over the past few months. British, Swedish and French consuls also reported comparable drops in visa demand. -------------- Fraud Expanding its Reach -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Despite the dip in visa applications during January 2009, there has been a significant increase in the percentage of cases involving fraud. The Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) reported a 147 percent surge in total cases forwarded for additional scrutiny, and a 28 percent increase in cases of confirmed fraud from September 2008 to February 2009, as compared with the same period a year earlier. Furthermore, cases where officers suspected false documents jumped by 63 percent. The Canadian, British, Swedish and French Consulates have also noticed an increase in fraudulent cases. ¶5. (SBU) Fraud trends in Ukraine have also shifted in a qualitative manner. Traditionally, the economically-depressed regions in western Ukraine have been the epicenter of consular fraud in the country. Recent FPU investigations indicate that visa fixers have expanded their market and territorial reach beyond western Ukraine, extending into southern and eastern Ukraine, as well as Belarus. (Note: Embassy Kyiv currently processes NIV cases from Belarus.) This dynamic is consistent with the fact that these industrial regions have born the brunt of the global financial crisis in Ukraine. ¶6. (SBU) Even the visa fixers are feeling the economic squeeze. Prices for fixed visa packages have reportedly dropped from as high as $12,000 in 2007-2008 to around $5,000 in 2009. At the same time, quality and sophistication of fraudulent documents have deteriorated. This suggests decreased ability of applicants to pay, and may also indicate the entrance in to the "market" of less KYIV 00000466 002 OF 003 //////////CORRECTED COPY///ADDED CIS AND NATO EU COLLECTIVES//// experienced document venders. ¶7. (SBU) The jump in fraud has contributed to a seven percentage point increase in our B-1/B-2 refusal rate for the fiscal year-to-date. Our Canadian colleagues have noted an even sharper jump, with their refusal rate rising from 15 to 25 percent. -------------- The Human Story: The Slump in Concrete Terms -------------- ¶8. (SBU) NIV applicants' statements during interviews offer a mosaic of narratives that reflect the economic outlook in Ukraine. These concrete infopoints put the crisis in human terms, among them: -One property owner lamented that his rental revenue in Kyiv has fallen by 50 percent. -Meanwhile, an HR manager from 3M reported that the company is in negotiations for better terms on their office lease, and that 15 percent of their staff has been laid off. -The owner of a property management company boasted that despite the crisis, his company had only had to undertake "small" layoffs of 15 percent. -A member of parliament from Donetsk affirmed that the metallurgy and chemical sectors are feeling the brunt of the crisis in his district, principally due to a decrease in export markets. -A foreign sales director from the large metals firm Donetsksteel claimed in mid-January that the company had avoided layoffs by reducing salaries. -One lawyer from a prominent firm reported that 20 attorneys in his firm have been transferred from real estate to litigation practice (primarily bankruptcy and creditors rights). -An applicant from an institutional investment company shared that her company had laid off 45 percent of its staff, and that no fresh money was coming into the country. -One recent Summer Work and Travel exchange program applicant actually requested a refusal, explaining that his family was no longer able to cover the cost of his travel and the fees of the exchange program placement agency. ¶9. (SBU) The human side of the crisis is also evident in increased interest in Consular Section jobs. Recent staff openings have attracted a much larger and more qualified applicant pool than in previous months, reflecting the scarcity of white-collar jobs and the high-demand for dollar-based salaries. A case in point: February 2009 advertisements for an entry-level NIV Clerk position received significantly more applications than when the position was last advertised in summer 2008. Moreover, the Consular Section, as well as other sections within the Mission, has seen employees who resigned to pursue private sector jobs during last year's economic upturn actually return to seek their old Embassy jobs. (Note: The Human Resources Section noted that during FY2008 the Embassy saw an average of 2 resignations per week, but in the first half of FY2009 there have been only 7 local staff resignations.) -------------- COMMENT: Future Demand and Fraud Up? -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The initial effect of the economic slump has been a clear though slight decrease in visa demand, with a strong up-tick in fraud. If the crisis continues to deepen, fraud will likely become even more endemic; however, it seems that the drop in applications is temporary. Already in February, visa demand has rebounded to above the February 2007 level. A continued growth in demand could be fueled in part by a small group of well-heeled Ukrainians hedging bets on the country's continued currency depreciation by spending savings on travel and leisure, thereby maintaining a Soviet-era tradition of investing in goods or services rather than holding on to currency as a store of wealth or value. Joining them may be an increasing number of still well-to-do (but now idle) applicants in former high-growth sectors such as construction and real estate who have indicated an inclination to take vacations precisely because the crisis has provided more time for leisure. The real motor of increased demand, although post's refusal rate and overstay rates do KYIV 00000466 003 OF 003 ////CORRECTED COPY//ADDED COLLECTIVE INFO//////// not yet reflect this, may well prove to be more applicants wanting to escape economic misery by seeking illegal employment in the U.S. TAYLOR