YATSENYUK EYES THE PRESIDENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000437 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR UP SUBJECT: YATSENYUK EYES THE PRESIDENCY REF: A. 08 KYIV 1300 ¶B. KYIV 427 Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b,d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In a March 5 meeting, Former Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk expressed confidence in his chances in the upcoming presidential election, which he predicted would "get ugly." He claimed his nascent political project, "Front for Change," had attracted significant support and would serve as the basis for a new political party. Yatsenyuk asserted that he has "no allies, only enemies" among major politicians. He highlighted a new poll which show him beating current presidential front-runner, Party of Regions leader Yanukovych, in a second round. The poll showed that Yanukovych would defeat PM Tymoshenko by eight points. Yatsenyuk was certain there will be no end to the rivalry between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. He said he would not join forces with Tymoshenko. He has "no trust" in her and regards her as power-hungry. Yatsenyuk was more restrained in his comments on Yushchenko, except to say he lives in a "fantasy world." End Summary. "Front for Change": Yatsenyuk's Presidential Platform -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In a March 5 meeting with PolCouns, 34-year old former Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk expressed confidence in his chances in the presidential elections expected to take place in January 2010. He reported that his nascent political project, Front for Change, had attracted significant interest and support since he launched it in December 2008. That support, he said, is reflected in recent polls that show him within 4 percent of Tymoshenko. Yatsenyuk told us that he would decide when to declare his candidacy "given the political situation at the time." ¶3. (C) Front for Change is the first step in Yatsenyuk's plan to form his own political party. He spoke frankly about staffing difficulties, and said he was open to support from "anyone." While he talked of taking a grass-roots approach to project and party-building, he did concede that he needs people with political experience on his team. Concentrating primarily on youth support would be a "losing strategy." He said in particular that he would welcome collaboration with Rada Defense Committee Chairman (and former Minister of Defense) Anatoliy Hrytsenko However, Hrytsenko has not yet given up on his presidential hopes even though, Yatsenyuk pointed out, he is polling at one percent. ¶4. (C) Yatsenyuk told us that his Front for Change is currently raising only about two or three thousand dollars daily. He said he would be seeking financial support from small and medium enterprises, Ukrainian "tycoons", and regular Ukrainians. He estimated that he would need $30-50 million to run a viable political campaign and thought he could raise it. He said he was actively looking to employ a consultant from the Obama campaign and hoped to deploy messages of hope and generational change. Yatsenyuk's Take on His Political Rivals -------------- ¶5. (C) Yatsenyuk declared he has "no friends" among other leading politicians, "just rivals and enemies." As such, he claimed to be free of obligations to other politicians and political groups. Yatsenyuk claimed Tymoshenko was after power above all and that he did not trust her. He claimed Tymoshenko would like to emulate Putin's "vertical of power" structure in Ukraine. He termed Tymoshenko a "tough politician" but the economic crisis had undercut her popularity. With her support slipping, she "dreams" of early simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections. ¶6. (C) Yatsenyuk described Regions chief Yanukovych as a "phantom" political leader because he rarely makes public decisions, pronouncements, or even appearances, and is "hard to watch" when he does. Nevertheless, Yanukovych has the solid support of 30 percent of the electorate. Despite that, Yanukovych is vulnerable in the second round since most Ukrainian's do not want a "party boss" for their president. ¶7. (C) Yushchenko still believes that he can win back the support of the people, said Yatsenyuk, but he "lives in a fantasy world" of his own making. Presidential Secretariat Chief of Staff Baloha, with whom Yatsenyuk said he does not speak, while clever, has been a poor strategist for Yushchenko. Yatsenyuk attributed his dismissal as Rada Speaker to Baloha's desire to provoke early elections. KYIV 00000437 002 OF 003 Asked whether Yushchenko's personality had changed since his dioxin poisoning, Yatsenyuk demurred, saying that it was "too personal" to discuss. Polls -------------- ¶8. (C) Yatsenyuk sees himself as Tymoshenko's principal rival for votes in western and central Ukraine, and intends to compete throughout the country. Yatsenyuk gave us the results of a poll (since made public) that he said had been commissioned by Party of Regions. It showed Yatsenyuk with 12.6 percent support, just 4 percent behind Tymoshenko. More significantly, it showed Yatsenyuk as far more competitive against Yanukovych in a potential second round match-up than Tymoshenko. Yatsenyuk beat Yanukovych by two points; Tymoshenko lost by eight. Yatsenyuk said his campaign plan is to be above the divisive politics of recent years. He noted that 26 million eastern and southern Ukrainians still live under Russian propaganda. They don't know their history; you can't push them too far at this stage on issues like the use of Russian language or NATO. Smears -------------- ¶9. (C) Tymoshenko and her surrogates have already started whisper campaigns to damage Yatsenyuk, he said. Tymoshenko is expert at "destroying" political rivals. Yatsenyuk lamented that the presidential campaign would "get ugly," but said that he would "answer smears". He worried that Tymoshenko, Yushchenko and Yanukovych would "gang up" to destroy him politically, but he also said that he benefited from not being "one of the three." ¶10. (C) When asked about a persistent rumor that Front for Change is being funded by controversial oligarch Dmitry Firtash, Yatsenyuk sidestepped the question, saying only that Tymoshenko was the first to publicize the rumor. According to Yatsenyuk, Tymoshenko's "talking points" for her surrogates have also concerned his purported Jewish heritage and "other personal issues" (which he did not specify). Tymoshenko Seeks to Block Media Access -------------- ¶11. (C) Yatsenyuk also claimed that the government's recent attempt at seizure of the shares of television company INTER from owner Valery Khoroshkovsky and purported backer Firtash was an attempt to limit Yatsenyuk's exposure to the electorate. (Note: Rada contacts told us that, in addition to funding, Firtash was supplying media support to Yatsenyuk through friendly coverage at INTER. Firtash was also effusive in his praise for Yatsenyuk's political potential in a recent meeting with the Ambassador (Ref. B)). Yatsenyuk said that Tymoshenko had harangued management at ICTV and 5th Channel to limit his appearances on those channels as well. Only recently had he gotten some time on 5th channel. As for his frequent appearances on INTER, Yatsenyuk claimed that this was because when he went on, ratings went up. Nothing more. Rada Speaker Lytvyn had actually appeared more frequently, (although, he joked, without the spike in ratings). No Deal with Tymoshenko -------------- ¶12. (C) Any offer to unite with his rivals ahead of the presidential election would simply be an effort to marginalize him, claimed Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk dismissed Rada Deputy Speaker and BYuT MP Mykola Tomenko's idea for Tymoshenko and Yatsenyuk to work together against Yanukovych, with Tymoshenko running for President and Yatsenyuk taking the PM position. Similarly, in mid-February he said that he had rejected an offer from the presidential secretariat to become National Bank governor because the offer was an attempt "to remove political opponents." ¶13. (C) Yatsenyuk told us that there was "no offer" that Tymoshenko could make to get his support in the presidential campaign. Instead, he posited that perhaps he could gain her support for his presidential aspirations, although he called such a development "highly unlikely". ¶14. (C) After Foreign Minister Ohryzko's ouster on March 3, Yushchenko called Yatsenyuk to discuss the situation -- the first time the two had talked in weeks, according to Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk told us that, although Yushchenko did not offer him the FM position, he would consider taking it if offered because it would provide a good platform from which to make a run at the presidency. KYIV 00000437 003 OF 003 No Yushchenko-Tymoshenko Truce -------------- ¶15. (C) Yatsenyuk also dismissed any talk of a "political truce" between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. He said that there was "no way" that they could find consensus because they "simply cannot get along". He said that when he was Speaker he tried to be a bridge between the two, but it was impossible because both Tymoshenko and Yushchenko "want to control everything." Comment -------------- ¶16. (C) Buoyed by recent polling, Yatsenyuk clearly intends to run and is confident of his chances. If he can capture the support of voters looking for someone (relatively) new or who want to lodge a protest vote against the "troika," he could be competitive. Pragmatic and intelligent, Yatsenyuk knows he is in for a tough fight. Unlike Tymoshenko or Yanukovych, however, he has no party or significant organization behind him at present -- and little time to develop them. TAYLOR