PARTY OF REGIONS' INTERNAL DIVISIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000305 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: PARTY OF REGIONS' INTERNAL DIVISIONS REF: A. KYIV 02080 ¶B. KYIV 02022 Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor for reasons 1.4 (b,d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Party of Regions -- Ukraine's main opposition party -- is internally divided among competing political and business groups controlled by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, former Finance Minister Azarov and oligarchs Rinat Akhmetov, Dmytro Firtash, and Andriy Kluyev. The Firtash group's increasing influence since 2006 has caused some internal strife and current infighting may be an effort by the Akhmetov group to regain influence. Party of Regions faces longer term threats to its stability, with divisions over European integration and regional difference within Ukraine. However, party members and outside observers expect the party to remain intact through the presidential elections expected in January 2010. END SUMMARY. CORE CLANS -------------- ¶2. (C) The Party of Regions (Regions) -- the largest party in the Rada -- is divided among three major and two minor internal factions, according to a variety of Regions contacts. The two largest and most influential groups are led by Regions head and former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and Regions MP and oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. The Yanukovych group is primarily composed of MPs who worked their way up the political hierarchy of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. These MPs are a part of or represent the political elite of Eastern Ukraine. The Akhmetov group consists of MPs loyal to Akhmetov or brought in from his System Capital Management industrial conglomerate and related businesses. Regions Deputy Rada Faction Leader Volodomyr Makeienko, who describes himself as a staunch Yanukovych supporter, told us that the core Yanukovych and Akhmetov groups each consist of about fifteen MPs. He said that these two groups originally founded Regions to unite the political and economic structures of Eastern Ukraine. FIRTASH GROUP -------------- ¶3. (C) Makeienko (and others) told us that the other major group in Regions is led by former Fuel and Energy Minister and MP Yuriy Boyko, who is loyal to controversial Ukrainian oligarch Dymytro Firtash. Former Regions party member and MP Taras Chornovil told us that despite the Firtash group's small size -- it only has about five MPs -- its financial resources have allowed it to exert a large influence on party decision making. According to Chornovil, the Firtash group entered the party when Firtash stepped in to help fund the 2006 parliamentary election campaign at a time when Akhmetov, Regions' primary financial supporter, was suffering some short-term liquidity problems. The group solidified its influence in the party after Firtash group MP Serhiy Lyvochkin became then Prime Minister Yanukovych's chief of staff. AZAROV AND KLUYEV GROUPS -------------- ¶4. (C) Two smaller independent groups in Regions, led by former First Deputy Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and oligarch Andriy Kluyev, are often subordinated under the Yanukovych and Akhmetov groups because their interests generally align, according to Regions contacts. Azarov and Kluyev each control about six deputies in the Rada. Makeienko told us that there are a number of Regions MPs who do not belong to the five main groups but were brought in to the party because they either bring some unique experience or distinct constituency, such as the foreign policy experience of former Ambassador Leonid Kozhara. The remaining MPs are individuals who were "invited" to join the party list after making significant financial contributions to the party and are not members of any of the five major groups, according to Makeienko. PUBLIC INFIGHTING SHOWS SOME CRACKS -------------- ¶5. (U) The divisions within Regions contributed to a rare public display of infighting as Regions MPs traded accusations over who within the party bears responsibility for the failed vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko on February 5. Regions MP Nestor Shufrych KYIV 00000305 002 OF 003 and Lyovochkin have traded accusations over responsibility for the failed vote and accused each other of working against the interests of the party. Akhmetov's trusted lieutenant, Regions MP Borys Kolesnykov, in an interview on February 10 echoed Shufrych's criticism and accused Lyovochkin of corruption. He said Lyovochkin and Boyko have tainted Regions' reputation because of their association with Firtash. He said that Lyovochkin "drives a Mercedes worth half a million dollars but does not declare enough income to even buy a Zhiguly." Kolesnykov said that the "new-comers," Boyko and Lyovochkin joined Regions in 2007, brought nothing to the party and that all Regions would lose if they left are "the chairs they sit in." AKHMETOV GROUP REASSERTING -------------- ¶6. (C) Regions MP Yuriy Miroshnochenko told us that the current public infighting is an effort by Akhmetov and some in Yanukovych's group to undermine Firtash's influence and reassert the Akhmetov group's preeminence in the party. With shadowy gas intermediary RosUKrEnergo (RUE),the main source of Firtash's wealth, cut out of the Ukrainian gas trade, they feel Firtash will no longer have the financial resources to challenge them. Makeienko told us that the Firtash group had alienated many of his fellow Yanukovych group MPs by "parachuting" into a party that they had not helped build and then monopolizing influence and information to Yanukovych. He said that many MPs resented being below Lyovochkin and Boyko on the Regions' election list despite their work rebuilding the party after the disputed 2004 presidential elections. Miroshnochenko said that it is unclear whether Yanukovych supports the attack on the Firtash group, but that he is at least not opposed because he could stop the dispute if he wanted to. OTHER FAULTLINES RISK LONG-TERM SPLIT -------------- ¶7. (C) Analyst Ihor Kohut told us that Regions has other more fundamental internal divisions, in addition to rival groups, within the party that could contribute to a split. He described two major divisions that could widen over time, but which Regions has so far been able to overcome. First, Regions is divided by those members who would like to further integrate into European institutions (like Akhmetov) and members who would like closer integration with Russia (like Azarov). Kohut said that the party has balanced between both tendencies, but that Ukraine's choices between Europe and Russia will increasingly be mutually exclusive. Second, Regions is widely supported across Southern and Eastern Ukraine, but the party is dominated almost exclusively buy leaders from the Eastern Dontesk and Luhansk oblasts. Kohut said leaders from other oblasts like Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, or Crimea could look elsewhere for political empowerment. He said that a split along regional lines could also result from diverging regional economic interests. The other oblasts are not as dependent on metallurgy and coal as Donetsk and Luhansk. ¶8. (C) Regions' internal clash in September and October 2008 over building coalitions with other political forces reveals another possible fissure that could widen over time. Kluyev told the Ambassador then that he and a significant portion of the Yanukovych group had pushed for Regions to form a coalition with Tymoshenko. Kluyev said that the deal, which ultimately failed (See REF A),was opposed by both the Firtash and Akhmetov groups who preferred a coalition deal with President Yushchenko. Shufrych, part of the Yanukovych group who backed the coalition, told us that the Firtash group was opposed to any cooperation with Tymoshenko because of her pledge to remove RUE from the Ukrainian-Russian gas trade. Akhmetov told the Ambassador then that he was actively fighting against forming a coalition with Tymoshenko (See REF B). STICKING TOGETHER THROUGH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -------------- -- ¶9. (C) Makeienko told us that despite internal divisions within the party, all the groups within Regions recognized that they were better off sticking together than on their own. He said that there is no alternative presidential candidate to Yanukovych and the party is confident that he will win the upcoming presidential election. Miroshnochenko told us that he expected Regions to remain united through the presidential election because any party split would cede the Presidency to Tymoshenko. He said that no one in the party wants to continue to be excluded from governmental power. KYIV 00000305 003 OF 003 ¶10. (C) Former Justice Minister and OU-PSD MP (who has broken from OU and is now independent but allying with Tymoshenko) Roman Zvarych told us February 12 that he also expects Regions to stick together through the presidential election. He said that Regions' political structure is designed to enrich the party leadership and it needs access to government resources to help accomplish this. Regions, he said, has no ideology apart from money. With Yanukovych rising in the polls, Regions' MPs understand that leaving the party now would mean forfeiting the possible benefits of government power, should Yanukovych win the presidential election. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) While personal animosities play a role, the current attack on Boyko and Lyovochkin appears also to be an effort to distance the party from its relationship with Firtash, and the rumors of corruption that surround him, prior to the presidential election. Ukraine's economic crisis is giving a boost to Yanukovych in the polls. If Yanukovych fails again in his run for the presidency, he could undermine the expectation for a share in the proceeds of power that keeps the various factions of the party together. TAYLOR